1.5 million people vaccinated already - brilliant!

[buttery81]

They’ve vaccinated 1.5 million people so far and the target is 13.9 million people (the top 4 groups in the attached graphic) by the middle of February, according to ITV. It’ll be a fantastic achievement if they can hit that target.

The government will be providing daily updates on the vaccine rollout progress from Monday 11th January.

It’s such a relief that they’ve got this vaccine and are rolling it out quickly across the country. Considering that it’s only 8th January today, I truly feel like 13.9 million by mid February is achievable.

Come on, let’s do this!

The UK has now reached 2 million vaccinations a week.

After another 363,508 first doses, in the past seven days 2,054,996 people have been given first doses.
mobile.twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1352289833050394626

Total vaccinations in the UK:
1st Dose: 4,973,248
2nd Dose: 464,036

So just under 27,000 short of 5 million now.

27,000 - you were so close!

in the past seven days 2,054,996 people have been given first doses

A rolling count like this makes more sense to guage the success of the roll out.

in the past seven days 2,054,996 people have been given first doses

So we’ve done over 2 million in a week? Flipping heck that’s incredible!

EU countries by percentage of population (Denmark highest.)

Vaccination doses per 100 people in first 20 days of vaccinations:

Denmark: 2.88 people per 100.
Italy: 1.88
Spain: 1.64
UK: 1.45
Germany: 1.34
US: 0.64
France: 0.63

@buttery81

Update....

4,973,248 people have now been vaccinated up to and including 20 January 2021

This is fantastic and means there were 363,508 vaccinations reported for yesterday - our biggest total yet!!

And what’s more, 1 in every 9.3 UK adults has now been vaccinated!!

We can do this!!!

Corrected: has received their first dose of the vaccine

As excellent as the progress is, it's dangerous for people to think they've 'been vaccinated' if they've received the first dose only.

They have been vaccinated They just haven't had the full vaccination schedule, it still happened.

How many people do you think got to page 28 on this thread thinking 1 dose was enough?

Incredible numbers! Keep up the jabbing NHS guys and girls!

@buttery81 I think, as another 5 million by Wednesday predictor, given we are 99.5% there we can probably safely round up and claim our prize

Let’s face it the remaining 27000 will be knocked off in maybe 40 minutes after vaccinations start tomorrow morning.

1 in every 9.3 UK adults has now been vaccinated!!

That is amazing - hopefully we'll start to see the impact on hospital admissions soon. Although I suppose initially it will be difficult to disentangle the effect due to the vaccines from the effect due to falling case numbers because of the lockdown.

Anecdotally, I haven't heard any reports yet of people dying or getting seriously ill from covid after having the first jab. Of course there's probably not a huge pool of people yet who've had the vaccine and then been exposed to covid more than 12 days later, but if it did happen it seems like the sort of story the tabloids, conspiracy theorists and general alarmists would be all over as proof that 'vaccines don't work'. So I'm hoping we can take that as a tentative good sign.

Based on a back of the envelope calculation, assuming about 1 in 35 people had the first dose 12 or more days ago and about 1 person in 1500 is getting infected each day, there's currently about 1200 people a day who've been vaccinated and would otherwise have caught covid (and still might have, depending on how effective a single dose is at preventing infection).

As most of the people who've been vaccinated are the most vulnerable, it's reasonable to assume that without the vaccine at least 5% (60/day) of those people would have become seriously ill and 1% (12/day) would have died. (In reality the percentages are probably higher, but let's say that's counterbalanced by the fact that vulnerable people are more likely to be taking precautions and therefore less likely to become infected.) Not only is it great news for those individuals if the vaccines are effective, but that will also add up to a statistically significant number of people before too long. So, hopefully it won't be long before we start seeing some preliminary analysis of how well a single dose works beyond three weeks, and whether it's a good idea to continue the strategy.

I'm just popping in to say thank you for this thread. I've been following for a while but never posted. When there is such despair and devastation all over this is a real tonic. Thank you.

@psychomath

Based on a back of the envelope calculation, assuming about 1 in 35 people had the first dose 12 or more days ago and about 1 person in 1500 is getting infected each day, there's currently about 1200 people a day who've been vaccinated and would otherwise have caught covid (and still might have, depending on how effective a single dose is at preventing infection).

As most of the people who've been vaccinated are the most vulnerable, it's reasonable to assume that without the vaccine at least 5% (60/day) of those people would have become seriously ill and 1% (12/day) would have died. (In reality the percentages are probably higher, but let's say that's counterbalanced by the fact that vulnerable people are more likely to be taking precautions and therefore less likely to become infected.) Not only is it great news for those individuals if the vaccines are effective, but that will also add up to a statistically significant number of people before too long. So, hopefully it won't be long before we start seeing some preliminary analysis of how well a single dose works beyond three weeks, and whether it's a good idea to continue the strategy.

REACT think 1 in 63 people has the virus, so from that more than 1 in 1500 people is getting infected each day. (ONS survey is out tomorrow hopefully and they will have some information about incidence there)

@buttery81 I think, as another 5 million by Wednesday predictor, given we are 99.5% there we can probably safely round up and claim our prize

@boys3 I hereby award us with and !

@psychomath very interesting, thank you!

I’m still buzzing from today’s 363,000 figure - it’s such a remarkable achievement and such positive news. A huge thanks to all the NHS staff, volunteers and everyone else who is making this happen!

Dh is a police officer at work tonight and the local vaccine centre called at 6pm this evening and said any officers that could get there in 20 minutes could have one of the left over jabs so they did! Completely unexpected and such a fab idea not to waste any. I had a little cry when he phoned me just now.

Total vaccines given according to covidvisualizer.com

My DH had his second dose more than a week ago now so it should be fully effective!

@GeorgieTheGorgeousGoat

Dh is a police officer at work tonight and the local vaccine centre called at 6pm this evening and said any officers that could get there in 20 minutes could have one of the left over jabs so they did! Completely unexpected and such a fab idea not to waste any. I had a little cry when he phoned me just now.

That's brilliant! I know our Centre hasn't wasted any at the end of the day, we are dragging people in.

Interesting Twitter thread on vaccine rollout by area. The author, John Burn-Murdoch is a statistician for the FT and well worth following.

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1352314388926103552?s=21

psychomath

Oh I like you with your back of envelope calculation. Fingers crossed that is true

@GeorgieTheGorgeousGoat thanks for sharing that - it’s great to hear that leftover supplies are getting used!

Just curious but how do they decide who goes where as on who goes gp who goes mass vaccine centre etc.

@CoffeeandCroissant we have done more than that surely. We are ahead of Denmark.

@whenwillthemadnessend

I think that everyone over 80 should have received a national NHS letter by now.

I looked at the online booking system and it includes pharmacies and the mass centres.

Our GP service is also independently working it's way down their lists - their clinics don't show in the online booking

But worrying that today there were plenty of appointments available for tomorrow. If there are empty appointments then maybe they should open it up to the next priority group.

@Jinglealltheway22 I think they do. My mum who is 74 was called last sat morning for an appointment that day. I think that is what happens if they have free slots