We are now in disaster mode

[lovelemoncurd]

“We are now in disaster medicine mode,” it said.
“We are no longer providing high-standard critical care, because we cannot. While this is far from ideal, it’s the way things are, and the way they have to be for now.”

I see that this means rationing medical care. So those who would have previously been given a chance will now not.

This is really significant!

I've been really keen to encourage people to take vitamin D, because there is sufficient evidence to believe it may help and it's difficult to overdose on it. It isnt a substitute for vaccination. IF vitamin D helps it's in reducing the risk of dying, it doesnt stop you being very ill or depriving someone else of other much needed health care. I'll be off to be vaccinated on 30 minutes notice if they call me.

My next door neighbour, now dead, used a wheelchair because he had polio as a child. My grandparents lost children to diseases we now vaccinate for. We are very lucky to have vaccines.

@scaevola

There have been so many commentators in the last few days saying we were 7-14 days to crisis, plus the official move of putting us to Alert 5 (danger of NHS being overwhelmed in next 21 days)

I am mildly surprised that people have not taken on board what that actually means

And very surprised that some still seek to minimise the united loud evidence of how bad the current reality is

Do not have a serious RTA or other accident, major stroke or heart attack, or have operable cancer diagnosed in the next few weeks. When you think 'don't be silly, I can't do much about that,' turn your thought processes about what you can do. Which is to ease the pandemic pressure by following both the spirit and letter of the guidance and laws, and generally don't be a dick

Yes, I too am genuinely surprised at how adamant people are that everything in the news regarding the critical state of the nhs is not true or an exaggeration. You have multiple nhs frontliner’s interviews, tons of clear data, patient accounts the government’s scientific advisors and the like of JVT pleading with the public to stay at home, yet people still make up bull shit that they know better. People still willing to make their own rules up or bed the rules so they can live how they want.

I think one of the problems is that for years and years (about 40 at least), every year we've had splashed across the front pages of our newspapers that the NHS is at breaking point, routine operations are being cancelled, ambulances are stacking up outside A&E, staff are at breaking point, pictures of sick people on trolleys and in chairs in corridors, etc etc. If you don't believe me, a quick Google will confirm.

Now we are seeing the same. None of the other conditions that caused such problems in previous years are mentioned at all. I'm fairly confident that it is worse this year, but we have seen this message many times before.

I do wonder if people in areas where the hospitals aren't overwhelmed realise that it can change in a day. The hospital nearest me was in great shape, and then took 150 Covid patients that had been diverted from hospitals elsewhere. Now ambulances are ambulances queuing 15 at a time to get patients in.

This is in area that was Tier 2 up until two weeks ago.

@WhoWants2Know

I do wonder if people in areas where the hospitals aren't overwhelmed realise that it can change in a day. The hospital nearest me was in great shape, and then took 150 Covid patients that had been diverted from hospitals elsewhere. Now ambulances are ambulances queuing 15 at a time to get patients in.

This is in area that was Tier 2 up until two weeks ago.

I wonder if you live near me?

Local hospital had 18 Covid critical care patients 3 weeks ago, expanded (took over wards/most of A&E) now have around 200 CC beds - ambulances queuing for hours to admit patients 😥

Terrifying.

@amicissimma

I think one of the problems is that for years and years (about 40 at least), every year we've had splashed across the front pages of our newspapers that the NHS is at breaking point, routine operations are being cancelled, ambulances are stacking up outside A&E, staff are at breaking point, pictures of sick people on trolleys and in chairs in corridors, etc etc. If you don't believe me, a quick Google will confirm.

Now we are seeing the same. None of the other conditions that caused such problems in previous years are mentioned at all. I'm fairly confident that it is worse this year, but we have seen this message many times before.

Yes, but NEVER before have so many needed the same resources & NEVER before have we had so many staff off at once.

No matter how much people want to minimise it, we have NEVER been in this much shit.

Now we are seeing the same. None of the other conditions that caused such problems in previous years are mentioned at all. I'm fairly confident that it is worse this year, but we have seen this message many times before

Well certainly a relative of mine had an operation cancelled in 2017 because of flu patients taking up the hospital wards.

However, there's a graph circulating on Twitter of London hospital admissions, and it shows a massive spike this year. Not just a little one. So assuming it's accurate, it really is a lot worse this year - in London at least. As I've mentioned on another thread, my mother had a routine non-urgent procedure carried out in hospital on Thursday - no covid-related concerns at all. But her area has some of the lowest infection numbers in the country at the moment.

@amicissimma

I think one of the problems is that for years and years (about 40 at least), every year we've had splashed across the front pages of our newspapers that the NHS is at breaking point, routine operations are being cancelled, ambulances are stacking up outside A&E, staff are at breaking point, pictures of sick people on trolleys and in chairs in corridors, etc etc. If you don't believe me, a quick Google will confirm.

Now we are seeing the same. None of the other conditions that caused such problems in previous years are mentioned at all. I'm fairly confident that it is worse this year, but we have seen this message many times before.

You are right there. Read it and watched the news many times. I thought, that is really bad, we need to put more resources into it. And thought nothing about it. Till one day I needed urgent medical care on Boxing Day. No ambulance available! At all. My husband had to take me there by car, I had to jump in the car with a horribly dislocated ankle, nobody available to put it back or stabilize it before getting to the car. When we arrived to the hospital, there was a huge amount of ambulances waiting to drop their patients. Just there. I could see their faces when they saw me OP. One tried to put a wrap around my ankle while my husband went in to call the porter to take me in. He could not because it was too painfull for me. They even popped in the treatment room to check once I made it inside emergencies. I had no longer pulse to my foot at the time I made it. Luckily for me, we just made it on time, or I would not have a foot, or maybe even be alive. I almost went into shock twice, but it was just luck! You do not really know how bad it can get till you are in the situation. And it is heartbreaking for them. They just cannot attend any calls. Just stuck there, waiting to drop their patient. So I can only imagine how things are at present. We all must do our utter best to prevent as many incidents and spread as we can.

Here’s how England’s Covid winter compares to a bad flu season, using historical data on flu ICU admissions, including winter 2017-18, a record high.
mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1347200811303055364

I can't understand how (hopefully a minority of) people can see this sort of thing on the news, the figures, the ambulance queues, the deaths spiralling...and still arrange parties, take their whole family to the supermarket etc.
Its really terrifying, and considering there is a time lag between cases and deaths, it does not bear thinking about how high a) the death toll from covid will be and b) how many additional deaths there will be because there were no ambulances, beds or medics available.

@Fizbosshoes

I can't understand how (hopefully a minority of) people can see this sort of thing on the news, the figures, the ambulance queues, the deaths spiralling...and still arrange parties, take their whole family to the supermarket etc. Its really terrifying, and considering there is a time lag between cases and deaths, it does not bear thinking about how high a) the death toll from covid will be and b) how many additional deaths there will be because there were no ambulances, beds or medics available.

... because, unfortunately, a lot of people these days don't read a daily newspaper or listen to/watch the news. Instead they get what passes for news from whatever social media they're using.

Thanks for the graphs Coffee. It is blood chilling!

Our local paper has been appalling with its sensationalist headlines and deliberately misleading articles to the point where I look at them now and just think “meh”.

Ours were dreadful over the summer. There were so many headlines in July - Sept along the lines of cases 'doubling' and 'surging' and yet the reality was there were barely any. It's really important people report the news responsibly. Even the Guardian and the BBC were so utterly miserable at times and so full of doom that I think people switched off when they read articles. It's the thing that has come up over and over when I talk about the pandemic in real life with friends. So many stopped reading the news because there was so much scaremongering and so people are having a hard time accepting what they're reading now. It feels so unreal the hospitals could be so bad when you step outside and life feels like it is carrying on (in some form). I feel very sorry for hcp's who are seeing the reality.

because, unfortunately, a lot of people these days don't read a daily newspaper or listen to/watch the news. Instead they get what passes for news from whatever social media they're using

spot on! ( and presumably same in US of A and a factor in people following Trump )

@RosesAndHellebores

I entirely disagree *@cocodomingo*. If for the last couple of decades people (the patients) had spoken up about shit services rather than being grateful because the jolly old NHS is free (and it isn't, it's free at the point of delivery only) things might have improved a lot faster. Every time my family and I have been in hospital there have been 4-6 nurses per ward and they have been more interested in chatting at the nurses station than nursing; and masters of the art of the eye roll should their chatter be interrupted.

@RosesAndHellebores as with any workforce there are nurses that work harder than other but on a 12 hour shift, I think you are wrong to begrudge nurses a chance to sit down in between tasks and talk to their colleagues. An adult ward ca have between 22 and 40 patients the ratio of patients to nurses can be 6-8 patients to a nurse so often care is delivered in clusters. Nurses have to write notes for each patient they are caring for in addition to teaching students, checking controlled drugs and various other ward tasks. Even patients in private hospitals sit down ...patient expectations of what a nurse does and what else is happening on the ward is often different to reality. Poor care is not tolerated but is regularly complained about and poor nurses who have poor conduct are not tolerated for long but still have their pick of jobs due to shortages

I absolutely take your point @cocodomingo but not at 2am, 3am, 4am, etc, when it disturbs patients whobare trying to sleep in what is anyway an alien environment. In those circumstances it is wholly unacceptable and unprofessional and I don't think there's an excuse for it. And woebetide the parent who has just got an unwell child to sleep and asks if they could possibly keep the noise down a little.

@CoffeeandCroissant

On that graph there is a dip in early December. Presumably that was the effect of the November lockdown?

If so, that gives me hope that this week's lockdown will have some effect too?

@TonMoulin

Two things for me

• yes any hospitals are in that position. It’s going to mean more people will die unnecessarily (and not all from Covid either)

• but this about around and some areas around it. It’s not the case for the whole of the uk. Where I am cases are still low enough that it’s manageable, normal surgeries/appointments are going in Incl IVF and the likes.

That's because we're not really locking down. My GP surgery in west London has even said they won't take anything but emergencies now as west London is so bad. Yet on the other hand, driving across Kew Bridge today to take son to disabled sport activity I saw throngs on the bridge and in nearby cafe roads, and making their way to Richmond park in droves. People are not staying home. I hear that London transport is in higher use and my place of work which normally accepts remote work has asked me to go in face to face next week for no good reason. In Hillingdon, for goodness sake, where the hospital is in the worst position in London. It's not being done seriously.

oh sorry quoted wrong post. I was reacting to a poster saying that lockdown wasn't effective because despite lockdown the figures were still going up. Sorry again

[quote madroid]@CoffeeandCroissant

On that graph there is a dip in early December. Presumably that was the effect of the November lockdown?

If so, that gives me hope that this week's lockdown will have some effect too?[/quote]
Yes, hopefully, although the new variant is much more of a factor now.

Why would the media want to keep everybody scared? Do you not think it’s in their interest to do
the opposite?

@MrsBasset

Why would the media want to keep everybody scared? Do you not think it’s in their interest to do the opposite?

MrsBasset why do you say that?

I would (accidentally) open it. The previous tenant of our property were a right dodgy pair of fits, continuing to run up debts years after vacating they property and getting credit at tool shops etc with our address. They didn't pay their car tax or instalments on their car loan, running up loads of fines. Hope it catches up with them one day. The concerning bit was when I had a "missed you when you were out" note from a bailiff chasing their debt. I was 8 months pregnant and would have been home alone with a toddler, so that wouldn't have been too much fun. I've opened everything ever since. By accident, of course. If it was to do with a debt I'd ring them, everything else went back in the post marked not at this address.

@MarshaBradyo I was replying (or trying to reply) to a comment where a poster had said that the media just wants to keep us all scared. I read MN all the time but not that au fait with how to copy a message and then reply to it. I clicked on reply, but the message wasn’t showing..

The NHS has been underfunded for years so it struggles in a normal winter and gets by on delaying anything non-urgent. This year it is having to delay the urgent and if it hasnt yet started who gets the oxygen and the bed it will be there soon.

The new variant hasnt reached the whole country yet. When it does those areas that have become placement will be overwhelmed quite rapidly will nowhere to send patients. You can see that happening - say on the Isle of Wight where numbers are shooting up.

The next month will be hell for NHS staff in London, the month after not a lot better as vaccination doesnt help London, with its lower age population, as much as other parts of the country. In the rest of the country there is a hope that vaccination plus past infections might mean staff not having to choose who gets the bed and the oxygen but it's a race against the virus and at the moment the virus is winning.