We are now in disaster mode

[lovelemoncurd]

“We are now in disaster medicine mode,” it said.
“We are no longer providing high-standard critical care, because we cannot. While this is far from ideal, it’s the way things are, and the way they have to be for now.”

I see that this means rationing medical care. So those who would have previously been given a chance will now not.

This is really significant!

@CaraDuneRedux

Those upthread saying "well, we've closed down schools and it hasn't made any difference, so we might as well not have bothered..."

You do realise, don't you, that there's a time lag?

We only closed schools 4 days ago.

Incubation is about a week to 10 days. From there it generally takes about a week to require hospitalisation. The cases going into hospital now were acquired at or before Christmas.

It then takes a week or two to die, if the patient sadly has it so seriously that they die. So the deaths currently being recorded are from infections acquired about a month ago.

We will not see any impact in the figures for new cases from school closure for another fortnight.

We will not see any impact in the figures for deaths due to closing schools for another month.

(Maths. Why do so few people actually understand maths? Or is it our culture of instant gratification? "We closed schools 4 days ago, I WANT RESULTS NOW!!!!" Violet Elizabeth Bott style tantrum.

Wanders off shaking head in disbelief.)

Very true.

And we have to factor in the effect the 1 day opening of schools may have had.

I pointed out IOW cases on another thread. Island and very low case rate. Remained in tier 1 all throughout Xmas and went to tier 3 with new changes just days before the lockdown.

Cases up to 20th (ish) December were very low. 10/15/100k

Cases from 28th went on exponential growth. And I mean scarily increased.

From 20 odd cases a day they went to over 300.

Their cases are now over 900/100k

Way higher than the towns on the mainland that went into tier 3/4 before Xmas and almost as high as the city which was tier 4 before Xmas.

And they will need to use hospital on mainland as well as island hospital capacity had limits.

It's a really good (in sense of data rather than what's happening) example if the transmissibility of this current strain.

@BeakyWinder

Sorry, was the prick comment for me *@Morgan12*? The title of this thread is alarming so I clicked it (OP's intention), followed by an anonymous quote that could be from Matt Hancock or Dave from the pub, so I asked for further information and posted so others would know too.

Apologies for trying to reduce any more panicking on these boards than there already is.

I'll carry on being a covid denying Prick now

Just wanted to come back to this. A poster who said she was 'clarifying' because the title was 'alarming'.

But the title was alarming because the situation is alarming.

How much more trouble are we in because we're softening messages? Not showing the actuality of overrun wards but letting people think that because there's no visible treating in corridors (a previous winter NHS standard but now too much of an infection risk) the emergency's made up?

So I'll urge you @BeakyWinder to call things by their real name, and not try to soften messages. Because I've said it before, this could be how it ends, not with a bang but a simper.

[quote Unsure33]@CaraDuneRedux

is that up to date for the fact that Russia lied about their figures .
Their deaths have increased from 50000 to 186000 ?

Also countries are recording deaths in different ways still.[/quote]
Oh, totally agree, the figures have to be taken with a pinch of salt - all sorts of countries (not just Russia) are playing fast and loose.

I think it's reasonable for comparing like-with-like, e.g. European countries (there may be minor differences in testing/reporting statistics, e.g. "dying from" versus "dying with" versus "untested but we're pretty sure this was a covid case"), but I think those differences will have relatively low error bars.

For that reason I think keeping an eye on what's happening in Germany, France, Italy etc. is a worthwhile exercise - in the sense of "What are they getting right that we're getting wrong?" or conversely "What happens if you take your eye off the ball and think it's all going okay and relax?" or (the question politicians really should have paid much more attention to looking at Italy back in March last year) "Are we going to be where they are now in three weeks time?"

I think we can pretty much bin any data coming out of Russia (or for that matter, any authoritarian regime).

I think the issue is that the media have been crying wolf since last year so nobody believes them any more. For example (see below) in October they were reporting that the NHS was due to run out of beds within a week. Of course they didn’t.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/08/hospitals-in-north-of-england-to-run-out-of-covid-beds-within-a-week

I can't believe people are too scared of this virus that they're willing to get themselves injected with it, without any liabilities from their makers. Logic has left the building

Logic was never present in your building it appears @Confusedgrievingmum ?

The Pfizer vaccine contains synthetic (not extracted from a virus) RNA (similar role as DNA in the body). Once injected, the RNA instructs your body cells to create protein spikes which look the same as the spikes Covid causes.
Your body creates an immune response to the protein spikes, which is effective against the ones caused by Covid.

The Oxford vaccine is made using a virus which is not Covid-19, but it looks similar enough to cause a similar immune response. The virus used is unable to infect humans.

Don't spread dangerous misinformation.

Stupids Day on Mumsnet!
@Screamingfemale wants to rely on Vitamin D only
Others denying over 100 years of vaccine treatment.
Some hate Big Pharma so much they are determined not to put one dollar into their tills even if that decision causes death.
BigPharma is the only source of chances for us not to decrease the population of the world by a measurable amount.
Do they not know the death rates from some diseases through history. Bubonic plague, yellow fever. The misery of even the survivors from Polio.
Have they already forgotten the slaughter from Ebola.
And breathe out slowly; Ommmmm!

It's about time we stopped requiring people to 'isolate' with the whole rest of their household, especially while we have so many hotels and other hospitality accommodation sitting empty.

It wouldn't be possible for everybody to isolate away from their family but a lot of people could. A lot would be very grateful for the chance to avoid infecting vulnerable family members.

It's disgraceful that we're still treating transmission within households as if it's just one of those things, as if it's inevitable.

It’s very unfortunate that a very large proportion of under 60 yr olds have ever experienced the horrors of polio, measles, diphtheria, whooping cough and some of the other virtually extinct childhood killers.
I was born in the sixties and before the age of 6 had measles, mumps and scarlet fever. I still remember my mum nursing us on camp beds downstairs and probably without sleep monitoring temperature ( she was a nurse) and trying to keep our temperatures down. She had seen many children die or be left with lifetime disability as a result of these illnesses.
My great uncle had polio in his mid twenties and lost the use of his legs, my husband’s uncle had polio as a child and ended up losing the use of one leg, a life time in a raised boot and callipers. Many more never made it out of hospital and lived a short life in iron lungs. I remember visiting a local care home where they had a couple of young adults still hanging on in iron lungs in the 70s.
Polio is not something we need and if vacc rates drop it will return. Would you condemn someone to a wheel chair for the rest of their life.
Because we have effective vaccine we have never needed to develop modern treatments for these diseases.
Never minimise the diseases we vaccinate against. Our health system would be a very different entity without them.

@DameFanny - an OP stating "London hospital in disaster mode - manager memo states XYZ" would be concerning enough without adding to it by posting mysterious statements with no context.

But saying that means I deserved to be called a prick and a covid denier so I'll bow out and leave you all to it have a lovely weekend.

Romancer it is well known amongst HCP that vaccinations only work for the intelligent.

It’s very unfortunate that a very large proportion of under 60 yr olds have ever experienced the horrors of polio, measles, diphtheria, whooping cough and some of the other virtually extinct childhood killers.

All too true, sadly.

In my grandmother's childhood, for instance, two of her siblings died in the same diptheria outbreak.

[quote Glenorma]I think the issue is that the media have been crying wolf since last year so nobody believes them any more. For example (see below) in October they were reporting that the NHS was due to run out of beds within a week. Of course they didn’t.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/08/hospitals-in-north-of-england-to-run-out-of-covid-beds-within-a-week[/quote]
Because they added beds

SnoozyLou

@ConfusedcomMum

Snoozy I didn't write that comment! It was confusedgrievingmum. I thought someone hacked into my account when I got the notification this morning. I've been busy home schooling last 3 hours .

SnoozyLou

Ah ok just seen your other post, no worries.

It's funny how some people will use ANY spurious or unproven facts from social media to justify their actions! Or it would be funny if it wasn't a major factor in people dying.

As for the media crying wolf - they weren't (or at least no more than normal exaggeration). The wolf IS real.

In our small hospital there is 120 covid patients, 2 of whom I know a 30 year old man in ICU and his mum.

annevonkleve "Well it's stopping things being even worse I suppose, but it's definitely not the clearcut solution everyone thinks it is."

Stopping things getting worse is exactly the purpose and no medical people think or say it's a solution. It's always been to slow things down so we have the capacity to treat the sick and to delay deaths until we have a vaccine and/or treatments to prevent them.

Bed availablity is UP because they've increased it due to nearly running out.

Pointing out risks and mitigating then off not crying wolf. They have to keep warning us because they're running out of mitigations.

Have a word with yourself @BuggerBognor - you're being part of the problem.

Lockdown was never meant to be the cure if you like.

More the treatment.

The vaccine is the cure.

The same way oxygen can help with treatment of pneumonia. But you need antibiotics to cure it.

[quote Unsure33]@PuzzledObserver

you do realise you may just have been lucky ?

My cousin ( in 50s ) and her husband both have covid . Both have same diets . Both have always been fit - physical work / horseriding etc . Both take vitamin supplements

She has had mild symptoms - unpleasant but mild - he has been extremely ill and needing oxygen for weeks .

I think your assumption that vitamin D was your saviour may be misplaced because the scenario above is playing out all over the country .[/quote]
Yes, I do realise I might just be lucky. However, statistics show that people with optimal vitamin D levels are more likely to be lucky than people whose levels are inadequate.

This applies to lots of health and lifestyle factors - there are people who have everything going for them who end up really ill, and others who’ve got every risk factor imaginable who are fine. It’s still worth doing what you realistically can to reduce your risk.

[quote SnoozyLou]@deathbyprocrastination I don't think I'd have the energy to deal with her. I think a lot of these people are short of attention at home. There are much better hobbies.[/quote]
It's really difficult to know how to respond. All logical arguments and actual facts get dismissed as lies. She's an intelligent person who I care about but who has gone full conspiracy theorist. We are in London and all know people personally affected but she's in total denial. And, as with most people who feel they are 100% right about something and part of an enlightened few, it's really hard to get her off the topic.

Having read some of the posts on here I think that some need to step back from You Tube vax videos and actually watch a video on how vaccines work and have a look at diseases that have been eradicated due to vaccines!