has everyone become too hysterical about Covid?

[tellytubby20]

Looking at all the threads on MN my impression is that everyone has become completely hysterical about Covid and completely misunderstands the difference between personal health risk and public health.

Am not oblivious to the health risks - I have followed all the rules, live next to a major London hospital (so very aware of how busy the ambulance service is) and had covid last year.
BUT
I am also under 40 with small DCs - so am aware that my personal risk of death or severe illness is small - my goal is therefore to ensure that I do not spread it others who are vulnerable.

However, so many people seem to have decided that the threat/risk is massive to their kids and themselves especially with this new variant.....WHY?

AIBU - to think that people are massively over-estimating personal risk if they are healthy and under 50 and have become hysterical about it.

AINBU to think that

Yanbu. It’s gone crazy.

Other European countries do have draconian travel bans on the British

@bumbleymummy

Yanbu. It’s gone crazy.

Anybody who says this is normal is either crazy or trying to gaslight us.

I don't have much patience with either.

@GreenlandTheMovie

I don't think that this coronavirus would work its way through the population quickly and then die out if there had been no lockdown. We know that natural immunity to coronaviruses isn't long-term and there would be bound to be people who avoided infection whilst it worked its way through the population. There would always be a host for it to survive. Furthermore, mutations are related to how many times the virus multiples inside a host and the natural rate of errors which occur as DNA/RNA is copied. I don't think that the virus hanging around for longer would be more likely to cause mutations. You could argue that the more people it infects the more likely a mutation and new variant is likely to arise. The virus only multiples inside a cell and so the timeframe of how long it has been around is irrelevant, just how many times it multiplies. The more people it infects the more it multiplies so it might mutate quicker without lockdown.

I don’t think people have become hysterical since I took my kids after work to the playground and it was totally full.

I didn’t say it was normal. I agreed that people are becoming hysterical about the risks - and it’s mainly on MN or Facebook.

First of all, not everyone is healthy (which in the Covid context doesn't mean simply that you're not at death's door; it means that you are one of the just 60% of the population who isn't known to have any sort of even minor chronic health problem). And nearly a third of the UK population is over 50. Secondly, even if you yourself are healthy and under 50, you very likely have relatives or friends who are over 50 and/or not totally healthy, and whom you don't want to infect. Thirdly, people aren't just worried about getting Covid itself, but about getting other potentially serious health problems and not being able to get timely treatment because the NHS and hospitals are overwhelmed.

[quote JS87]@GreenlandTheMovie

I don't think that this coronavirus would work its way through the population quickly and then die out if there had been no lockdown. We know that natural immunity to coronaviruses isn't long-term and there would be bound to be people who avoided infection whilst it worked its way through the population. There would always be a host for it to survive. Furthermore, mutations are related to how many times the virus multiples inside a host and the natural rate of errors which occur as DNA/RNA is copied. I don't think that the virus hanging around for longer would be more likely to cause mutations. You could argue that the more people it infects the more likely a mutation and new variant is likely to arise. The virus only multiples inside a cell and so the timeframe of how long it has been around is irrelevant, just how many times it multiplies. The more people it infects the more it multiplies so it might mutate quicker without lockdown.[/quote]
I agree.

People who say that others have 'gone crazy'.

How do you feel when you read the accounts by hospital consultants of what is happening in the hospitals?

To choose to disparage 'hysteria' when this is getting worse each week, with routine surgery cancelled and many hospitals changing their definition of 'safe' care, seems a remarkably callous thing to zero in on.

I do think people are crazy and hysterical
People who think lock down is an over reaction are plain crazy
And those that rant on about it are hysterical

@bumbleymummy

I didn’t say it was normal. I agreed that people are becoming hysterical about the risks - and it’s mainly on MN or Facebook.

How old is your dad? Your partner? Your grandad?

Men aged between 50 and 79 are dramatically more likely to end up in ITU with covid.

And at the moment that's even more scary than it normally would be to their loved ones.

What's crazy is the minimising and gaslighting in my opinion.

I stick with facts and reality. Not comforting bullshit.

"Many other Northern European countries don't find it necessary to have a travel ban within their borders where there is a requirement for no more than 2 persons to be outside or bubble together outwith households.

Many other Northern European countries have a far lower rate if covid, a lower positivity rate, don't have many cases if this new high transmission variant and definitely have a much higher bed to patient ratio (and associated staffing levels).

But yeah other than that its a brilliant comparison."

Belgium was no.1 at one point so is definitely comparable. There is no travel restriction within the country, though there was advice not to visit a particular tourist spot after too many people did. Four people can meet outside. Single people can visit two friends inside, but only one at a time. Shops were closed for a while but are back open now as are museums and swimming pools, the latter two being appointment only. Pubs and cafes have been closed for a few months, but the right to see four people outside helps a bit to make up for that.

And the rate of the new variant in Belgium is?

@PrincessNutNuts Yeah, I stick to facts too. Yes, those groups are more likely to end up in ICU but the IFR is ~0.01% for 50-59 yrs and ~0.47% for 70-79 yrs. It’s tiny for young people

[quote bumbleymummy]@PrincessNutNuts Yeah, I stick to facts too. Yes, those groups are more likely to end up in ICU but the IFR is ~0.01% for 50-59 yrs and ~0.47% for 70-79 yrs. It’s tiny for young people

@princessnutnuts,

I have no idea where your numbers are from but they are way out. I reference two recent studies below to evidence more realistic data.

For people in their 50s, it is around 0.3-0.5% and in their 60s, it rises to above 1%. These are working age population and, for many in their 50s, still with dependent children.

And the above is for a fully coping NHS, which is not the case right now, and will only get worse for the next month.

www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0 www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-10-29-COVID19-Report-34.pdf

Sorry, that should have been to @bumbleymummy

@TheReluctantPhoenix

Sorry, that should have been to *@bumbleymummy*

That's good. I thought I still had morning befuddlement.

Since I'm here. I think we'll hit 100,000 U.K. covid deaths in about a week- ten days.

We might not know for sure for a while.but I think we're about there.

Princess,

I think that is going it a bit, but I can see 1,500/day on average (1k, climbing to 2k, averaging 1.5k) over the next 10 days. That would push us to 92k or so.

Looks like we will end at 125-150k, assuming vaccine does its job (which I think it will). Of course, if we see wholesale NHS collapse, it could be considerably worse.

It's not so much the private hysteria that's the problem; it's the posters who insist on making it their life's work to whip up hysteria in as many other people as possible. And to criticise them for not being hysterical enough.

How can people who are hysterical function? It's also using up a lot of stress and energy and invoking the same for others; really bad for people who should be trying to keep as healthy as possible.

@tobee

It's not so much the private hysteria that's the problem; it's the posters who insist on making it their life's work to whip up hysteria in as many other people as possible. And to criticise them for not being hysterical enough.

How can people who are hysterical function? It's also using up a lot of stress and energy and invoking the same for others; really bad for people who should be trying to keep as healthy as possible.

Totally

Equally it is also not do much the private minimisers that are the problem. More the very vocal minimisers who quote false stats as fact.

@PrincessNutNuts I wouldn’t like any of my loved ones to be in hospital over the winter months. They’re always overwhelmed. We’ve had surgeries cancelled in previous years because of it. I’m not trying to underplay the seriousness of aging hospitals at full capacity btw - it’s a huge issue but it has been like this for years. It seems to have actually taken a pandemic to make people sit up and take notice.

@TheReluctantPhoenix They’re from the BMJ gh.bmj.com/content/bmjgh/5/9/e003094.full.pdf It adjusted for income group and I specifically looked at the HIC figures. The imperial study is more recent(although the seroprevalence data they’ve used comes from early summer) and includes all income groups.

And before someone jumps on me - I’m not saying that this is the same degree of over capacity as in previous years.