has everyone become too hysterical about Covid?

[tellytubby20]

Looking at all the threads on MN my impression is that everyone has become completely hysterical about Covid and completely misunderstands the difference between personal health risk and public health.

Am not oblivious to the health risks - I have followed all the rules, live next to a major London hospital (so very aware of how busy the ambulance service is) and had covid last year.
BUT
I am also under 40 with small DCs - so am aware that my personal risk of death or severe illness is small - my goal is therefore to ensure that I do not spread it others who are vulnerable.

However, so many people seem to have decided that the threat/risk is massive to their kids and themselves especially with this new variant.....WHY?

AIBU - to think that people are massively over-estimating personal risk if they are healthy and under 50 and have become hysterical about it.

AINBU to think that

"I didn't realise that."

Well the annual mortality figures for 40 to 45 years old I think is around 1 in 300 or 0.3%. That is an average statistic based on all causes e.g other pathogens, cancer, road accidents, crime, heart disease etc. This is not a big number but people take out life assurance, critical illness cover for it etc.

You can compare this with covid age related statistics and repeat the exercise for different ages. Then you need to take into account if you are male/ female overweight/ diabetic etc.

My point is for anyone past 40 covid risk is significant compared to all the other risks we are exposed to so it minimising it to say well you could get run over by a bus tomorrow as life is full of risk so crack on....

Longer term covid risk may reduce as immunity is built up or vaccine programs developed but it may be that our overall risk level is now slightly increased going forward.

Right now with hospitals bring as they are if you are over 35 and being cautious I wouldn't describe that as bring hysterical. It is probably rational. If you are happy with the increased risk are secure enough employed to risk missing or underperforming at work for a few months then crack on indeed.

Obviously the older you are the worse it gets.

@Northernsoulgirl45

94% of beds in our local hospital are occupied by COVID patients. That is fact. It is not hysteria and very worrying if you need treatment for something else urgently.

That's really worrying. I've just read this article which states that overall now one third of hospital patients in the whole of the UK are Covid patients. And some hospitals obviously a whole lot higher, like yours.

As someone who needs regular hospital admissions for my lung disease this is really, really scary.

And no, that's not hysterical. Just real.

Sorry this article.

BBC News - Covid: Half of patients at some hospitals have virus
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55575100

@HeadIsFucked

I actually know a 25 year old guy, very fit (does a bunch of team sports and regular gym, so assuming slightly but never seems ill at least) who has not even left the house at all since April. Deliveries come, he gets them left on doorstep and then when bringing them in, will sanitise each thing. He has also actually burned some of his own posting the past few months, as he apparently got worried that quarantining it for 48 hours (he was doing this, in a plastic airtight container ) was not enough to make it safe.

He seemed to have no anxiety issues beforehand, however, for him to be THIS bad over it, you would think there were some issues beforehand, if not, he has reacted probably the worst of everyone I know to lockdown, by a country mile. Meanwhile most older people I know are living as 'normally' as possible when everything is shut!

He has also not seen his 2 year old child in all of this time, when contact was regular. Its quite sad. I could understand the measures if he was high risk and older, but even if he was, still seems quite OTT to be washing and sanitising tins of beans tbh.

I know a 38 year old man, also very fit, in perfect health, who has dumped his girlfriend because of Covid. Told her he couldn't see her because he was self isolating. He has always been a bit prone to agoraphobia, but I believe he now doesn't go out for weeks at a time. Its very sad because he is one of those who struggle to hold down a job and has used Covid to withdraw from life even more. Doesn't even have a life online. I'm really worried about him. He literally stays in his flat, day after day, and refused to open the door to concerned visitors, even during the summer.

I also know a family (adult daughter, shares a house with both parents) who were pretty anti-social before but have gone completely over the top now and just don't ever step outside.

More so, because as a runner, I'm aware of at least 3 runners whom I've learned about on social media who have committed suicide. Two of these people had MH issues and depression and its obvious that they really needed the regular company that training with others on set days of the week provided.

@Madhairday it is. I am sure someone will be along to say half of them are in for something else but just happened to test positive with no symptoms using the inaccurate PCR test etc etc But yes extremely worrying. We are now nearly 700 cases per 100K now too.

But these people are remarkable because it is unusual.

Oh yeah, for sure. It stands out more as its so unusual. That level of fear is certainly not the norm, and I find it a bit annoying when people who are sticking to the rules get written off as 'hysterical' which I have seen a lot (as much as anyone questioning lockdown is automatically a conspiracy theorist!)

I didn't think a topic could polarise the country as much as Brexit did, yet here we are.

Really interesting heatmap threat for age and positivity rates.

WHO state that management of covid is out of control if you have a positivity rate of more than 5%. SAGE recommended the first circuit breaker the week they went over 5%.

twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1347202821935030278

I don't like the increase in the hospitalisations by age chart...

ICU admissions increasing in 45-64, 65-74, and 75-84 age groups. And ICU admissions declining in over-85s.
(Is this due to lack of beds and over 85s not being allocated them? Or are there just less over 85s who are vulnerable to covid in the population - due to the high death rate so far???)

"I know a 38 year old man, also very fit, in perfect health, who has dumped his girlfriend because of Covid. Told her he couldn't see her because he was self isolating. He has always been a bit prone to agoraphobia, but I believe he now doesn't go out for weeks at a time. Its very sad because he is one of those who struggle to hold down a job and has used Covid to withdraw from life even more. Doesn't even have a life online. I'm really worried about him. He literally stays in his flat, day after day, and refused to open the door to concerned visitors, even during the summer."

I have a similar-aged relative who's a bit of a hermit. I worry about him. I don't even know if he has a job at the moment. He goes from job to job and I don't suppose it's easy being a casual worker at the moment.
Of course he was glad of the excuse not to go home for Christmas and refused to join the family Zoom :(

"Two of these people had MH issues and depression and its obvious that they really needed the regular company that training with others on set days of the week provided."

That is really sad because running in a small group outside is very low risk.

Listening to a radio discussion on the hospital capacity. It’s not sure that there are so many hospitals full of Covid patients but if you have a car accident or heart attack there may not be an ICU bed for you. Some hospitals are using children’s wards and operating theatres as additional Covid wards.

This is a really clear little animation comparing flu season and what's happening now. It has the flu data from the last few years so you can make a direct comparison with the oft quoted 2017 flu season if you want.

@GreenlandTheMovie @PinkPandaBear @hamstersarse @peaceanddove

Please watch and then hopefully you can stop spouting the "it's just like flu, this happens Every. Single. Winter" bullshit. 🙏

twitter.com/DrDomPimenta/status/1347213212043923456

singingstones Please watch and then hopefully you can stop spouting the "it's just like flu, this happens Every. Single. Winter" bullshit

Please be more accurate and have greater attention to detail, because I didn't say anything of the sort. I said I didn't look forward to being locked down in future years for a bad flu season.

I think the lockdown is this country is too strict, and I think that affects its effectiveness because its too strict to sustain for so many months. Many other Northern European countries don't find it necessary to have a travel ban within their borders where there is a requirement for no more than 2 persons to be outside or bubble together outwith households.

That is a rule that people are much more likely to obey without stopping healthy people at low risk from travelling to places outdoors for leisure reasons. I know leisure is something thats become a dirty word amongst some Britons, but its better surely to have rules that are more likely to be obeyed than rules which sound very strict.

Police stopping people and checking their addresses when going to the supermarket and telling them will be fined if they don't use the supermarket nearest them really isn't that helpful.

@GreenlandTheMovie

singingstones Please watch and then hopefully you can stop spouting the "it's just like flu, this happens Every. Single. Winter" bullshit

Please be more accurate and have greater attention to detail, because I didn't say anything of the sort. I said I didn't look forward to being locked down in future years for a bad flu season.

I think the lockdown is this country is too strict, and I think that affects its effectiveness because its too strict to sustain for so many months. Many other Northern European countries don't find it necessary to have a travel ban within their borders where there is a requirement for no more than 2 persons to be outside or bubble together outwith households.

That is a rule that people are much more likely to obey without stopping healthy people at low risk from travelling to places outdoors for leisure reasons. I know leisure is something thats become a dirty word amongst some Britons, but its better surely to have rules that are more likely to be obeyed than rules which sound very strict.

Police stopping people and checking their addresses when going to the supermarket and telling them will be fined if they don't use the supermarket nearest them really isn't that helpful.

This is what you said. Please stop saying it now. The death rate is not "virtually the same" as 2018 and suggesting that this is like a normal flu season is wrong, stupid, dangerous etc etc.

Although ONS statistics show that the death rate is virtually the same as in 2018 at the same time, and of course the NHS becoming overwhelmed in winter is a regular occurrence. So on the same thinking, we will have to lockdown every winter because of flu.

And that is not the same as saying it is "like the flu", is it? Do you know how to be more accurate? Perhaps you should learn, before trying to preach like the most pious of pious preachers.

If the evidence shows that deaths are similar to those in 2018 at the same time, what on earth is wrong now with saying that? Its a fact. Are you seriously arguing that we cannot discuss facts in case it upsets someone?

That is the direct route to unaccountable government and people losing all respect for lockdowns of any form.

@AcornAutumn

The hysteria is off the scale crazy.

This.

I’d also really like it if MN starting only letting people post if they have a photo ID so we could see which demographic the posts were coming from

@GreenlandTheMovie
As you know (I think you must know this but not 100% sure), you are lining up a normal flu season next to what's happening this winter, as if they are the same or similar when they are not. This encourages people to think, wrongly, well there's no need to worry because it's just like a normal winter.

www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/breaking-hospital-declares-it-may-refuse-critical-care-as-overwhelmed-by-covid/7029268.article

This is not hysterica. It is not the flu and it is nothing like the NHS has experienced before.

singingstones I'm comparing one year's ONS statistics to another.

I'm not "lining up".

Yet again, you are making things up. You do realise that if you make things up, you don't come across as very plausible?

What on earth is wrong with using ONS statistics for god's sake??? Why the hell do you think they're published? Can you link me to some legislation where the comparison of one year of ONS to another statistics is barred, or do you just make it up as you go along?

Why should people be under a compulsion to worry?

Your language is literally loaded with a desire to force people into thinking in a certain way (a psychologist would have a field day with it) but don't think it isn't obvious.

And none of that is ever going to be successful, so you might as well save the effort and do something that is.

@Parker231

www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/breaking-hospital-declares-it-may-refuse-critical-care-as-overwhelmed-by-covid/7029268.article

This is not hysterica. It is not the flu and it is nothing like the NHS has experienced before.

Is this like Chinese whispers in a primary school or something!

No-one has said its like the flu!

We are just using actual statistics from the ONS to keep it in perspective.

And also pointing out the dangers of using lockdowns to deal with this number of deaths, because it will be difficult to justify not locking down with a similar number of deaths, even from flu, in future years.

I think some people actually want to revel in some enjoyment of going around screaming and crying like headless chickens "the end of the world is nigh" (and by the way, you said this and you said that")

Jesus Christ. If ever there were posts that justified the original thread premise...

Green - are you a doctor?

The ons publish charts showing how many more deaths are occurring thus year compared to other years

It's nearly 100,000 excess deaths WITH lockdown

Without lockdown it would be many more

No, I'm a lawyer who specialises in human rights, public law and judicial review.

I do often have to read medical documents as part of my job and understand them to the level required to be debated in court, however. I used to be involved in medical negligence cases, both pursuing and defending.

What are your qualifications to justify telling me what to think Parker and SingingStones too?

Thought you weren’t a doctor. I’m married to one who has worked on Covid wards in the first wave and is now a part of the vaccination programme so I think I’ll take my information from him and his colleagues rather than an anonymous poster without a medical background.

The bbc has a good page on your local covid info which includes these for your local area and your country:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

Parker123 I wouldn't care who I was bloody married to, even if was the director of Public Health England myself. I still prefer to think for myself. I particularly don't rely on doctors to interpret evidence, as opposed to being good at being doctors.

Still waiting for you to share your own qualifications, in the spirit in which I shared mine.