Teachers at far higher risk of covid than general population - New data

[noblegiraffe]

"Covid rates among schools staff in some areas are as much as four times the corresponding local authority average, Tes can reveal.

Figures for three councils obtained by the NASUWT teachers' union show that the staff coronavirus infections are far outstripping local rates, casting doubt on the government's repeated assertion that teachers are at no greater risk than other workers."

www.tes.com/news/exclusive-teacher-covid-rates-333-above-average

The government won't release the proper data, I wonder why. They've been given an extension to midday today to show the evidence that schools are safe, as part of a legal challenge by the headteacher unions. Good luck with that.

Maybe they are, and maybe I'm being naive.

I am sure they are deliberately suppressing and misrepresenting data on schools. I’ve been paying close attention and it’s an inescapable conclusion. It goes way beyond incompetence.

"Schools are shut?

Not in England they're not. Primary schools are open for KW and V children, which in many schools is a majority of pupils. "

As are many secondaries...

Whilst the data is incomplete (eg you should compare average for teachers to avg of a group of non-teachers who are roughly the same age/sex/comorbidity structure) - they question is why is there no data available for this?

The govt should be collecting data on different sectors - including supermarket, hospitals to see whether more PPE needs to be provided or specific advice needs to be given to workers with health conditions to reduce the risk and the pressure to nhs. This data should be published, analysed and used to inform covid policy.

@mrsm43s thank you yes that does help .

But even though not comparing like with like ,is it not significant/worthy of note that the rate of "Covid prevelance " per 100k is 3 or 4 times higher than the ,incomparable ,general pop of the respective areas ?

3 or 4 times greater sounds a lot to me ,even though it's comparing one group of workers with a large general group .

For example the PHE report about schools being safe used heavily in the back to school campaign: data collected when schools were socially distanced small primary classes

Now that was an example of misusing statistics. At roughly the same time two big international, peer reviewed studies were released which both indicated shutting schools early had been the single most effective public health intervention (followed by shutting large gatherings early).

The idea that kids might not spread Covid always had a pathetic evidence base. I'm stunned that some are still peddling it.

It goes way beyond incompetence.

Matt Hancock: 'Hold my beer...'

There was a quote from the ONS about two days ago on the bbc saying teachers rates were the same as other professions that work outside the home. Don’t know who to believe but I trust the ONS.

Wow-that’s insane!

Is the government not publishing this data or is it not even collecting it?

School Staff attendance and covid positive rates/deaths must be recorded somewhere? Surely!

I read upthread the government have until 12pm today to publish data showing schools are safe-has that extension info come from the NAHT? Am interested to hear about that.

Does anyone know when the attendance data of the last week of term is released as well? Wasn’t that supposed to be this week?

[quote peridito]@mrsm43s thank you yes that does help .

But even though not comparing like with like ,is it not significant/worthy of note that the rate of "Covid prevelance " per 100k is 3 or 4 times higher than the ,incomparable ,general pop of the respective areas ?

3 or 4 times greater sounds a lot to me ,even though it's comparing one group of workers with a large general group .[/quote]
I don't have enough data to know whether its relevant or not, because I don't know the rate in all people working outside the home.

If the rate of teachers is roughly the same as the rate of those working outside the home in other professions then its a non story.

If the rate of teachers is much greater than the rate of all those working outside of the home, then yes, its definitely something that needs to be addressed.

I suggest it isn't though, because otherwise that is what the TES would have reported. Also the ONS is saying that teachers rate is not significantly higher than other professions. But I don't have the data in front of me, so I don't know.

Personally I suspect that the rate for anyone working outside the home (which includes, but is not limited to teachers) is considerably higher than the rate for those who can stay at home. But I don't know for sure, because I haven't seen the data to prove it.

Don’t know who to believe but I trust the ONS.

The ONS data was a pile of shite that was reported to the National Statistics Authority and has been consistently misrepresented.

They use it to say ‘no evidence of higher risk’ because there was evidence of higher risk but the sample size was too small to draw conclusions.

twitter.com/sarahdrasmussen/status/1346200723504189446?s=21 if you want a breakdown.

@notalwaysalondoner

There was a quote from the ONS about two days ago on the bbc saying teachers rates were the same as other professions that work outside the home. Don’t know who to believe but I trust the ONS.

Underlying ONS data is pretty much accurate.

The interpretation of the data by journalists (and others) is almost always misleading, either to fit an agenda or by incompetence.

I'm sure there will be a queue of the usual suspects here to apologise to noble and others who have maintained that schools were not safe.

Or maybe not.

I expect they still think schools should be open, they made it clear they don't give a stuff about the health of teachers.

So the teaching unions are determined, by presenting data In a way that suits them, that my kids won't be educated in the classroom before the summer holidays then. Hokey doke, it's best to be prepared I suppose.

As long as the fallacy that they've 'moved to online learning' is dropped and the discussion regarding how many kids have just been kicked out of education in to social isolation becomes a lot more honest.

Mrs yes ,I see .But tricky to make direct comparisons with other groups of workers as conditions would differ so much .

Retail staff ,those poor security guys loitering for warmth inside shop entrances ,care workers in residential homes ,front line staff in hospitals - they all have different conditions .Though I think masks feature more commonly for these groups than for teachers .

Just goes to show how hard it is to collect and use meaningful data I suppose .

the teaching unions are determined, by presenting data In a way that suits them, that my kids won't be educated in the classroom before the summer holidays then

That would be the moronic conclusion.

The sensible conclusion would be to look at ways to make a return to school safer, as the headteacher unions are requesting.

Interesting to see which conclusion you leapt to.

no @Carlislemumof4 it is the government who have confirmed that schools are vectors of transmission and that is why they have closed. It wasn't teacher's safety that led them to take this decision but rather because of the growing rates in the country as a whole.

Just goes to show how hard it is to collect and use meaningful data I suppose

And what about the data they have published but are no longer publishing? Isn’t that odd?

Well that's completely new information to me and every other teacher I know.

Said no one who has been working in a "covid safe" school building since August 🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️

I understand that the TES had to request a FOI to get this info. That’s why it’s not anywhere else.

Not totally sure..

Hi @noblegiraffe :)

I have my new list of demands for gov.

*1. Create a set of guidelines to make schools SAFE when returning after half term hols.

1. Sort out exam criteria and options by end of January
2. Have a clear strategy for now y10s.*

This last point is my new one. What I would like to see NOT happen (but probably will)

If things normalize somewhat by Sept all kids will be sent back. The kids starting y11 then will have to sit pre-covid exams just to show that things are back to normal.

But those kids have had 1,5 yrs of disruption of their core learning years.

@Iremembertheelderlykoreanlady

Well that explains yesterday's turnaround!

I think the families of teachers who have died should sue the government. They knew about this and did nothing to make schools safer.

And what could they have done to make schools safer?

Personally I'd have made the kids wear masks and told the parents if their little angels were too precious to do so they would not be allowed into a school at all.

But I don't think anyone would accept that. They'd all be bleating about rights.

What else is there? Build bigger schools? Yes eventually, but we can't do that now.

Personally I feel sorry for teachers but check out the people boasting that you can pretend to be mask exempt and walk around a shop breathing on the staff.

@LastTrainEast
There have been many suggestions

1. masks all the time, all ppl
2. rota to thin out classes/blended learning
3. proper testing and isolation rules. not mock ones
4. utilize other spaces where possible to spread the kids

just to name the biggest ones.

Someone upthread posted that infection rates are highest in secondary school children. They're not, as this chart from the always excellent @RP131 on Twitter shows. In fact, the highest infection rates are pretty evenly split across the working age population, between the ages of 20-59, with the 20-30 group almost always the highest. Infections are rising in all groups but the proportion has stayed about the same.

I'm not suggesting that a school is a 'safe' environment, by the way, but we would need to have data from all working age adults working out of the home to know how true this is. It is very disappointing that this data is not being routinely published for everyone's sake, particularly for the sake of teachers who are doing such a fantastic job in the face of so much unjustified criticism and ever changing advice, even before you take into account the infection risk.

twitter.com/RP131/status/1346138638204198914/photo/1