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Covid

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Original poster

Press Conference at 8

671 replies

Beebityboo · 04/01/2021 14:53

Says Peston. Predictions?

OP posts:
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14
vickyp0llard · 05/01/2021 08:33

The only answer is for people to socially distance and for the vaccine to be rolled out,

What if dozens of new mutations appear during the roll-out (like the SA one), and we are forever playing catch-up trying to update the vaccine? What then, lockdown forever? Or just accept that we're going to have excess deaths and a vaccine with 50% efficacy, like flu?

Parker231 · 05/01/2021 08:36

No one knows yet how effective the vaccine will be. The scientists are writing off the benefits of the vaccination programme. If the admissions to hospitals are not got under control what will happen when further people get Covid or need other emergency treatment ? Leave them in the car park?

Sparklingbrook · 05/01/2021 08:37

The scientists are writing off the benefits of the vaccination programme

Are they? Do you have a source?

vickyp0llard · 05/01/2021 08:40

Leave them in the car park?

Like we are effectively doing with dentistry, or with everyone else's quality of life, education, businesses, jobs, mental health. I don't think that the total destruction of quality of life for the entire nation for potentially many years is a price worth paying. We can't save everyone from everything, death is a natural part of life.

vickyp0llard · 05/01/2021 08:42

The scientists are writing off the benefits of the vaccination programme.

Really? Why would they do that, and why do you know better? I think they are being realistic - even flu vaccines which have been in development for decades are only 30-50% efficient some years, it's naive to expect 90%+ for covid from the first vaccine. It's not a silver bullet and we've been told that from the start, viruses like this mutate constantly, usually to be more infectious but less deadly.

MarshaBradyo · 05/01/2021 08:44

@Parker231

No one knows yet how effective the vaccine will be. The scientists are writing off the benefits of the vaccination programme. If the admissions to hospitals are not got under control what will happen when further people get Covid or need other emergency treatment ? Leave them in the car park?
Source?
Parker231 · 05/01/2021 08:49

Sorry typo - scientists aren’t writing off the vaccine programme!

Sparklingbrook · 05/01/2021 08:50

@Parker231

Sorry typo - scientists aren’t writing off the vaccine programme!
Confused
Eckhart · 05/01/2021 09:05

@vickyp0llard

You seem to be basing a lot of your arguments on the fact that this will go on for years and we can't carry on like this forever. I don't anybody is arguing against that point.

The fact is, it hasn't even gone on for 'year' yet. Some people are struggling with mental health and financial issues but there are a lot less deaths than there would otherwise have been.

I'm not a fan of Boris or Conservatives, but you can't say that the current solution isn't better than the NHS collapsing. There are things that could have been done better, but the most sensible thing is to try out the vaccine route in the hope that it provides a route back to some semblance of normality for the majority of people, with as few people as possible dying. Hopefully the welfare system will not collapse and there will be support for those with financial problems. Hopefully the NHS will not collapse and there will be support for those with mental health issues.

Allowing the virus to just let rip would cause deaths, and those cause mental health and financial issues for those left behind, just like lockdown is doing for people now. You're talking as if thousands of people dying is a cure all. You're talking in 'what ifs'. Your arguments are mostly empty and based on potential/skewed information.

if I went to the office in 2019, I accept the risk someone may have bought flu in, I may have it asymptomatically and may pass it on to someone who passes it to their nan. We all took that risk, yet now we must shut away to eliminate all risk

Like this. It's irrelevant. It's not the same situation. Because there is a vaccine for flu, and we know nan will have been offered it.

People are going under. No doubt. You're right. And it's awful. But there is no solution to this that will save everybody and their mental health and their bank account. But with a choice of 'try vaccinating everybody' v 'let thousands die so that the rest of us can get on with our lives', you are inhumane to choose the latter.

vickyp0llard · 05/01/2021 09:10

Like this. It's irrelevant. It's not the same situation. Because there is a vaccine for flu, and we know nan will have been offered it.

The flu vaccine is barely 50% effective some years; many people have it and still die. It's exactly the same argument. Are you a murderer for going to the office when ill, then spreading it to someone who sees their nan?

But with a choice of 'try vaccinating everybody' v 'let thousands die so that the rest of us can get on with our lives', you are inhumane to choose the latter.

I didn't say we shouldn't vaccinate, in fact vaccines and other medications are the best idea we have. I just don't think lockdowns are. They don't work, they delay the problem and cause a worse wave when finished. The WHO even said they shouldn't be used as the go-to tool, and there is zero correlation between which countries did strict lockdown and their death numbers. I think the side effects and future poverty-related deaths, as well as loss of quality of life and livelihood for the entire country, are more inhumane.

vickyp0llard · 05/01/2021 09:16

Another reason lockdowns don't work is that people get burn-out and stop caring, and find more crafty ways to break the rules. In countries like Sweden where people were treated like adults and not naughty children, they took precautions and socialised in covid-secure spaces. In the UK people are just having their mates around their house on the sly, half of my neighbours have done it. Are Sweden in a much worse position than us now, or places like India/Eastern Europe/Latin America? Not really. No matter how much you call people "selfish and stupid", if they want to see family and friends, they will - so you may as well have some degree of openness but make it covid safe. That way more will comply and you will have goodwill of the population.

It's like drugs; making them illegal just ensures dealers can strive and people will still do them, but die of overdoses and dodgy batches. If you legalise them, you make it safer and can monitor the usage. We've basically made socialising illegal in a "war on covid", and guess what, it doesn't work because people will always get around the rules.

oneglassandpuzzled · 05/01/2021 09:21

Sweden has done worse than all its Nordic neighbours

vickyp0llard · 05/01/2021 09:25

Sweden has done worse than all its Nordic neighbours

It has however kept the economy the most intact and will have an easier recovery, as well as less future excess deaths stemming from unemployment and poverty.

Compare US states that did and didn't do repeated lockdowns. There is barely a difference in death rates. Lockdowns are a blunt instrument that don't work in the long term, yet cause massive harm.

Eckhart · 05/01/2021 09:27

Well lockdowns do work, because the whole point of them is to cause a delay in infections. Did you think they were supposed to eradicate the virus? What your neighbours are doing is neither here nor there.

Can't be arsed to argue with stupid anymore. If you don't want to lock down, don't. Most people will, and the infection rate will drop. Some people will suffer as a result, but less people will die. Hopefully once this lockdown is done, the vaccine will be making a difference to those most at risk.

I wish the best of luck to your family, whose lives you are perfectly happy to 'take your chances with.' It's a good job Boris is in charge and not you, and that's really saying something. I can't stand the man or his methods.

vickyp0llard · 05/01/2021 09:31

I wish the best of luck to your family, whose lives you are perfectly happy to 'take your chances with.'

The IFR is 0.5%, and something like 0.001% in under 60s people, so the chances for my family are less than dying on the road. My grandparents live abroad where there is no lockdown, and have caught it and been fine. I know no-one who has died of covid. I know three young people who have committed suicide from depression and one who died in a motorbike crash. Covid isn't the only thing out there and covid deaths aren't the only important measure of how well we are doing as a country.

borntohula · 05/01/2021 09:31

@oneglassandpuzzled

Sweden has done worse than all its Nordic neighbours
But better than other countries with strict lockdowns and I'm talking about deaths per capita.
vickyp0llard · 05/01/2021 09:33

Some people will suffer as a result, but less people will die.

Right now maybe. In 10 years when the economy is still in the toilet and millions are unemployed and visiting food banks because most small businesses went bankrupt? I wouldn't be so sure.

Eckhart · 05/01/2021 09:35

You're spending a lot of time on this, Vicky, but barely anybody is agreeing with you. Enjoy your day arguing on MN.

vickyp0llard · 05/01/2021 09:39

You're spending a lot of time on this, Vicky, but barely anybody is agreeing with you.

Because there's a fucking lockdown and nothing to do. I don't really care if you don't agree, it would be an echo chamber and not a debate if everyone agreed.

southeastdweller · 05/01/2021 09:47

How the hell can anyone say that lockdowns work when we’re still locking down after almost a year, we have done of the highest infection rates in the world and many NHS hospitals are struggling to cope? And how many people haven’t had their illnesses diagnosed because, generally speaking, the only thing that matters is COVID. Kids being forced to do online learning and missing out on socialising with their friends. Then there’s the economic impact and the correlation between that and deteriorating mental health.

Moonmelodies · 05/01/2021 09:51

It's not really a lockdown if industrial estates, factories and warehouses etc are all working as busy as ever.

Sparklingbrook · 05/01/2021 09:54

Because there's a fucking lockdown and nothing to do

Literally, nothing else to do than argue on the internet?

vickyp0llard · 05/01/2021 09:56

Literally, nothing else to do than argue on the internet?

You are also doing the same.....as are most people on this site.....

Or are we only allowed on MN if we all agree?

Sparklingbrook · 05/01/2021 09:58

@vickyp0llard

Literally, nothing else to do than argue on the internet?

You are also doing the same.....as are most people on this site.....

Or are we only allowed on MN if we all agree?

Different levels of wanting to get into an argument. I'm off out in a minute. Grin
Puzzledandpissedoff · 05/01/2021 10:58

If dozens of new mutations appear during the roll-out (like the SA one), and we are forever playing catch-up trying to update the vaccine? What then, lockdown forever? Or just accept that we're going to have excess deaths and a vaccine with 50% efficacy, like flu?

This is what I keep asking about - the long view, if you like - and there's rarely an answer beyond "anything else would be worse"

I only wonder how long this view will last, and how long it'll take for some to realise that the vaccines may not be the answer to everything, even if a proper rollout is possible (which personally I doubt)