Have sent the following to our local MP tonight. First time I've ever written to her, my wife is a TA at a local Primary and I've worked in Data/Stats for many years.
Dear xxxx
I am writing to you to seek your views regarding the proposed return of Primary Schools in xxxx on Monday 4th January.
Two salient points here:
1 School/FE/HE age children are the 3 highest age groups for infection rate as at w/e 18th December (the latest available data), source ONS:
Primary – 2.0%
Secondary – 3.0%
FE/HE ages - 2.4%
25-34 - 1.5%
35-49 - 1.3%
50-69 - 1.0%
70+ - 0.5%
Can I remind you that the National infection rate (as tested) in w/e 18th December was roughly HALF what it is today (2/1). The likely National infection rate amongst Primary Age children right now is c4%, the likely rate in xxxx is probably slightly higher due to the higher prevalence of the new variant in our area.
In a class of 30 children, even with an infection rate of 4%, the chance of the class having no COVID infected children is 30%. Those are not good odds.
2 Teachers and TAs are spending prolonged amounts of time (a risk factor) in an indoor environment (another risk factor) where people are not wearing masks/PPE (a final risk factor).
On Wednesday 30th December, the PM stated that ‘Schools are Safe’. Could you please explain on what basis he made that statement, as nothing at all, in my 25 year experience in working with data and statistics, leads me to believe that he had any justification for that assertion.
I understand the Government’s desire to keep schools open, a desire that I know most Education professionals share. However the facts now clearly show that mandating such an approach in the current situation is putting the health and lives of Teachers, support staff, pupils and their families at risk.
Yours