How long will we be In tier 4 for?

[maxxyboy]

I know that is the "how long is a piece of string" question but what's everyone's thoughts?
I'm in the north east (Newcastle)
How long do you think we will be stuck like this?

Till Easter

4-8 weeks. The govt will want things like non essential retail back open asap for the economic benefits.

March?

I wouldn't want to put a date on it. They can't relax it until hospitals have got spare capacity.

There are two things that are going to slow down the rate of hospital admissions: one is people sticking to the rules, the other is getting more vaccine into people's arms. And with the lag effect, it will be several weeks before the effect of Tier 4 and vaccinations make a difference - even if they could start vaccinating a million a day from next week.

OTOH, it is realistic that the over 80's and care home residents will all have had their first jab by the end of January, along with health and care staff. That should make a massive difference, although we won't start to see it till the middle of February at the earliest.

Two months? Plus? Hospital admissions and deaths lag several weeks behind the number of cases.

We haven't peaked yet. This is the key point.

The SE will need to send patients to the rest of the country for some time even if cases in the rest of the country come down quicker.

Watch for when we peak. Then count the number of weeks since Christmas add a couple and thats how many more weeks you have to go.

And then its still only T3.

Realistically the vaccination programme won't make a dent on things for some time. To give you an example: DF is 69 and clinically vulnerable. On the basis of the prioritisation system they have in progress, he's around 10 millionth in the queue. The government are aiming for 1 - 2 million vaccinations a week. (Astra Zeneca says it hopes it can supply 2 million doses a week if the government can facilitate administering them) Even if we do hit the top end of that plan, thats still likely the back end of Feb before it gets to my Dad and there are still lots of people who will be vulnerable who haven't had it by that point. (And thats with only give one dose. When we start to have to do the second vaccination, that slows the process down again).

So yeah. Get comfy and get used to this for the forseeable. Thats just how its going to be for a while.

One day at a time. Every day is a day closer to hugs.

2-3 months is my estimate.

It's not a lockdown lockdown so they can just keep referring to "local" tiers

Weeks, months. Didn’t you only just get put in to it so no point moaning yet. Wait for tier 5

@CausingChaos2

4-8 weeks. The govt will want things like non essential retail back open asap for the economic benefits.

I agree. I think lockdown rebranded aka tier 4 will be a thing of the past soon - I'm thinking sometime in February.

Couple of months I reckon.
I live in an area where we basically never came out of lockdown. Cases down to 65 per 100k, and still went into tier 4 yesterday.
Given up hoping for life to improve to be honest. Toddler hasn’t socialised with another child his age since March. Lost a significant part of our family income so will have to sell our house. Close relative died as her cancer wasn’t diagnosed in time (no one would see her face to face in March). This is life now.

Dunno. April might bring some changes.

Surely it will be tier 4* soon.

I would guess at least a month or two. We’re currently tier 3 (which almost ours where I live there’s so few areas left) but I’m expecting to be put up to tier 4 at the next review.

I honestly can’t see them moving anywhere down until the pressure on hospitals is better.

A few months like this, then we'll be up and down until the vaccine successfully brings the numbers of people in hospital down. As soon as enough people have been vaccinated, I imagine we'd be good to go back to normal. But that will be a while.

April at the earliest

They won't keep the shops closed until Easter. I am guessing a few more weeks.

I think a realistic guess would be at least til the back end of March

Until we move to Tier 5.

I'm waiting for the Tier 4 S to come out.

Until they mobilise the army to deliver the vaccines because it's not going to happen otherwise.

SE here, I think as we are including closed schools till Febuary. Then tier 3 for another month. Tier 2 from March ?

So cases are as high as March now so 4-6 weeks.

@lljkk

Until we move to Tier 5.

Don't we have Tier 4+ already? They just haven't called it T5.

Even longer than anticipated, given all the parties last night.