I fucking knew it. Second vaccine dose.

[NiceGerbil]

News is that people who have had first dose are only getting second 3 months later. Against the guidelines of the org who made the vaccine.

I said this rush to push it out would result in, how are they going to follow up and make sure they get the second?

And here we go. Second dose not organised. UK govt say this is AOK.

FFS. I'd rather they took the time to do it properly. But hey. Pissup in a brewery situation again.

I said a few days ago to DH. Are they properly tracking this to make sure the follow up jab isn't missed?

I was too optimistic. Govt have decided second jab isn't that important.

FFS.

@formerEUcitizen

Being first to start means nothing if we quickly get overtaken in the doses being administered by other countries rolling it out quicker.

Speed is what matters ultimately (currently we are not meeting even the slow rate proposed for the fragile Pfizer vaccine, let alone the rapid mass vaccination required for the AZ Oxford vaccine to make the difference that we all need).

Who is faster other than Israel?

The problem is leaving it to the GPs alone.
They need to use the full NHS, including hospitals and nurses, AND all the pharmacies that managed to administer millions of flu vaccines in a matter of weeks this autumn.
The fixation on the priority list is meaning that currently only GPs can organise the vaccination scheme and they simply don't have the capacity. It is a huge bottleneck.

I don’t see why it’s too much to ask that the U.K. gets one of the better vaccine candidates, transparency and a decent vaccine rollout. Why is everyone so happy to settle for such incompetence?

Because your version of a “better” vaccine is based on absolute nonsense, the process has been ridiculously transparent (all studies are publicly available, the JVC have published their rationale etc) and the vaccine rollout has been decent - we’re vaccinating as fast as the vaccines are available.

I’m not a fan of this government, nor of their management of the pandemic response. But this is the one area where they actually aren’t being incompetent.

From JCVI position statement: "With most vaccines an extended interval between the prime and booster doses leads to a better immune response to the booster dose. There is evidence that a longer interval between the first and second doses promotes a stronger immune response with the AstraZeneca vaccine"

Obvious question: if this is so, why was it originally planned to separate them by just 21 days?

"The rate of vaccine delivery in the UK is currently limited by vaccine supply rather than by workforce capacity"

And yet reportedly, AZ have said they can support 2m vaccines a week if the infrastructure's in place for it to be given
Again if it's so, someone's telling lies and I'd like to know who it is

Who is faster other than Israel
We will see in a few weeks. I am worried, and I have the right to be based on the projected vaccination rate if things continue at the current rate using the current system.

I think it’s still worth separating science and government in U.K.

By that I mean JCVI or MRHA issuing a statement carries weight. Do others feel differently?

@MarshaBradyo I’m not sure of the detail probably they still have National Service I think so use Army a lot.

I’m honestly just exasperated and if I vent it’s because I don’t understand why the papers, the TV general public aren’t up in arms over so much. We just roll from one disaster to the next and everyone just accepts it.

I will very happily take my vaccine when the time eventually comes.

And yet reportedly, AZ have said they can support 2m vaccines a week if the infrastructure's in place for it to be given

The infrastructure is not in place for the mass roll-out of AZ oxford.

@formerEUcitizen

Who is faster other than Israel We will see in a few weeks. I am worried, and I have the right to be based on the projected vaccination rate if things continue at the current rate using the current system.

I admit 500k was a surprise - didn’t we have production at risk?

But I think Oxford will speed up and manufacturing is faster although I get vial concerns too

Supply of AZ seems to have massively ballsed up somewhere in the last few months, and there’s a frightening lack of transparency on how we went from a 30m stockpile to 500,000 doses.

Because as the JCVI paper linked above notes, it is vaccine supply rather than workforce constraint that is our current issue.

To me, that’s the main issue that currently needs accountability, not whether we should be rolling out a vaccine that has been approved as being both safe and effective.

As I said upthread, if the government suddenly advocated half-doses for everyone, would you be happy with that? Based on no data?

This is a false equivalence. There is data which shows that one dose is effective.

We have currently vaccinated around 1.5% of our population, behind only Bahrain and Israel, and ahead of China, the US and all of mainland Europe. Our average doses per day have dropped unfortunately, but should rise again when Oxford starts being distributed.

This does not strike me as a failure.

ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

But I think Oxford will speed up and manufacturing is faster although I get vial concerns too

The problem is not manufacturing, it is administering it to people.

There simply isn't the infrastructure to give the vaccine to millions of people each week.

For that they need to use all the pharmacies in the country (like with flu vaccines).

Plus they have hospitals, doctors and nurses inside them

If they insist on only GPs vaccinating, it will take years.

The projection graphs based on current vaccination rates are available on the internet

@formerEUcitizen

But I think Oxford will speed up and manufacturing is faster although I get vial concerns too

The problem is not manufacturing, it is administering it to people.

There simply isn't the infrastructure to give the vaccine to millions of people each week.

For that they need to use all the pharmacies in the country (like with flu vaccines).

Plus they have hospitals, doctors and nurses inside them

If they insist on only GPs vaccinating, it will take years.

The projection graphs based on current vaccination rates are available on the internet

That’s current rates Pfizer will be slower

I really didn’t get the impression it was deployment

Maybe someone will confirm or deny

A vaccine in a warehouse not a human has zero efficacy.

Flu vaccination of millions of people is only possible since every pharmacy in the country vaccinates people, plus GPs - including drive-through clinics this year, plus hospitals, plus extra capacity is needed on top of the flu vaccination numbers so more drive-through centres, more marquees, more stadiums etc.

But if you are restricting numbers to an extreme degree by the GP analysing to a fractional degree the relative risk of each person in each priority list, and only allowing GPs to administer the vaccine, it will take years

@ChloeCrocodile

As I said upthread, if the government suddenly advocated half-doses for everyone, would you be happy with that? Based on no data?

This is a false equivalence. There is data which shows that one dose is effective.

Yes, for up to 3 weeks.

So what happens between 3 weeks and the next dose at 12 weeks?

We're assuming the immunity continues, but if it tails off?

I'm not saying the strategy is wrong, desperate times call for desperate measures and all that. I think there needs to be greater transparency with the public, so people aren't walking around thinking that they're immune because they've had ONE dose instead of two. Hope this makes sense but I'm not sure I'm articulating it properly.

@CoolKitkat on the previous page I linked to the JCVI statement released today, which answers many of the questions you have. app.box.com/s/uwwn2dv4o2d0ena726gf4403f3p2acnu

And, yes, "desperate times call for desperate measures" is it in a nutshell.

if this is so, why was it originally planned to separate them by just 21 days?

I don’t actually know, but I’d hazard a guess that closer dates are better because a) your trial gets completed sooner, b) if the effectiveness is low you can do a third booster if necessary, and c) the general public are more likely to show up for the second dose if there is only a short separation.

The infrastructure is not in place for the mass roll-out of AZ oxford.

I did read recently that nobody had even spoken to the pharmacies (who do flu vaccines) about this until last week. That did make me annoyed!

[quote Oaktree55]@MarshaBradyo I’m not sure I only read about Oxford.[/quote]
Also Oaktree: I’ve made it very clear I think the other vaccine candidates are amazing including Novavax in all likelihood

I've seen this poster confidently assert things in other threads about the other vaccines, only to admit later they were wrong or didn't really know. I find it hard to believe someone with really good knowledge in this area wouldn't know more about all the vaccines, not just this one.

Oaktree, did you get turned down for a job in the Oxford department twenty years ago or something like that? Did Sara Gilbert spill your pint?

The infrastructure is not in place for the mass roll-out of AZ oxford

So bearing in mind that JCVI have just said it's the supply where problems lie, it's them who are being deceitful?

If so, that seems to highlight Marshall's worthwhile point about separating government/politics and science ... except when it's government funding the scientists I'm not sure how easy that is to do

[quote Motorina]@CoolKitkat on the previous page I linked to the JCVI statement released today, which answers many of the questions you have. app.box.com/s/uwwn2dv4o2d0ena726gf4403f3p2acnu

And, yes, "desperate times call for desperate measures" is it in a nutshell.[/quote]
Thanks, this is helpful. Not many people will read the full statement, so I still think the government need to highlight that immunity might wane before the 2nd dose is administered.

I think people might get a false sense of security and lower their shields, when it could be dangerous to do so.

@CoolKitkat people have already been told not to stop SD. / mask wearing etc., if they have had the vaccine (because we don’t know if it stops transmission) So hopefully people won’t go around thinking they are immune regardless of how many doses they have had because that would put other people (who have had no doses, at risks)

I don’t disagree that we need to be told the full plan of how they propose to vaccinate large numbers of people (just producing a list of people is hardly ground breaking stuff is it?) But this government has lacked substance throughout so I highly doubt we will be given any details.

I don’t think the strategy is particularly “wrong” (if they are Confident it will give protection, it has to be right to give more people the vaccine)

Yeah, agreed. Particularly given we still don't know about the impact on transmission, so everyone - regardless of vaccine status - needs to remain cautious.

The problem is not manufacturing, it is administering it to people

But again, in the statement linked above, JCVI have said it is supply where the problem lies

In light of a PPs insistence that casting doubt upon them is a massive slur on their "integrity" I'm genuinely trying to get a handle on this, and so far all I'm seeing is JCVI and the manufacturers plaing "pass the blame"

There are definite supply issues with Pfizer.

This link is from Reuters so not UK press
www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService_2_MOLT/idUSKBN296283