We are now in disaster medicine mode. We are no longer providing high standard critical care, because we cannot

[hepatocyte]

twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1344701745130254343?s=20

Leaked email from Dr Julia Patterson, founder of campaign group EveryDoctor (you can see her tweet history re this on her Twitter account @JujuliaGrace*)

Published in the times too but behind a paywall.

I don’t understand why people are still denying there’s a problem :/

• Post edited

@FOJN
That’s just awful. What a waste. Hard for you to deal with on a personal level and utterly tragic for everyone affected.

@IloveJKRowling

Modelling based on DoHSC data suggests without variant suggests peak admissions by around 4 January and, therefore, peak ITU demand around the 11th. The variant has skewed modelling slightly but it’s still expected to be broadly in line with anticipated peak.

Does the modelling include loads of schools going back and children mixing indoors in classes of 30+ with no social distancing and no masks from the 4th Jan? I can't see it being the peak in early Jan in this scenario myself but I hope I'm wrong.

Modelling is not specific scenario based. It’s based on nosocomial rates, time from community peak to admission peak and then lag for critical care demand. It’s a model, not an exact science, but pretty accurate thus far.

@CherryRoulade but surely there has to be some sort of estimate of behaviour? If we all just stopped social distancing, mask wearing etc right now, we wouldn't expect the models to hold true surely? Surely the 2 week break from large numbers of the most infected age groups mixing without SD and masks makes a big difference? There was a slowing down / dipping of case rates during half term and then it picked up again when the kids all went back.

Just trying to understand what the models are based on and how accurate they can be (and hopeful it's true the peak will pass soon....for the sake of our medics if nothing else).

[quote IloveJKRowling]@CherryRoulade but surely there has to be some sort of estimate of behaviour? If we all just stopped social distancing, mask wearing etc right now, we wouldn't expect the models to hold true surely? Surely the 2 week break from large numbers of the most infected age groups mixing without SD and masks makes a big difference? There was a slowing down / dipping of case rates during half term and then it picked up again when the kids all went back.

Just trying to understand what the models are based on and how accurate they can be (and hopeful it's true the peak will pass soon....for the sake of our medics if nothing else).[/quote]
I’m not an analyst so don’t see the data fed in to get the answers out. I suspect they do adjust according to certain criteria- it adjusts for demographics - but not sure enough to talk about the detail with credibility.

I’m sure Christmas will impact as will any New Year celebrations but suspect that features in calculations.

@hungrywalrus

I don’t understand why medics are not being vaccinated first. Much as they might not always be the most clinically vulnerable, if they are unavailable, it kills. It makes no sense to give this to the very old just yet.

I agree. A doctor I heard interviewed today was saying the same thing - not for selfish reasons but because the number of staff is the real bottleneck in the hospital crisis.

The schools question is the worst. Potentially terrifying consequences if they're off, and if they're in 😞

I wonder if they will try to facilitate all GPs to be able to operate as minor injuries units, to at least take off the pressure from those kind of A&E trips.

@EugenesAxe - unfortunately GPs are already having to massively scale back their essential day-to-day work in order to administer community vaccinations in care homes and beyond, so don't have the capacity or facilities to take on MIU work.

Modelling based on DoHSC data suggests without variant suggests peak admissions by around 4 January and, therefore, peak ITU demand around the 11th. The variant has skewed modelling slightly but it’s still expected to be broadly in line with anticipated peak.

Surely that doesn't take into account all the inevitable mixing that is going on right now, NYE?

I feel so worried for all the hospital staff, love and strength to you all

@DianaT1969

OP, who is denying there's a problem?

Just look in the coronavirus topic on Mumsnet. There are lots of people saying this is a relatively minor illness and that basically there isn't any need to be scared / follow tier 4 rules / etc.

@InMulieribus posted:

"All I was saying is that lockdown is hideous for so many people, and will evidently cause people to take their own lives. We all ought to be listening to this, not just sucking up whatever nonsense the government feeds us."

@InMulieribus There are two awful things happening here: strain on peoples' mental health due to lockdown/redundancy/social isolation, and strain on the NHS staff due to the pressure of Covid cases rising, alongside staff sickness, shortages and MH problems. Both problems are very real and very serious, both issues are worth discussing, but it needn't be a case of minimalising the importance of one issue to make the other one seem more important.

I was on furlough for months, and was very socially isolated during that time (still am), then got made redundant. So, I empathise with others who have lost their jobs due to the Covid crisis and associated slowdown of the economy. I'm lucky that we have no money issues and my DH is still working, but all the same I miss the routine and mental stimulation that my work gave me, I miss the contact with other people. In short, I've been very lonely and can understand why the future seems bleak to many people.

All that said, I feel huge concern and sympathy for all the NHS staff, and know that they are at the polar extreme to my situation - working long hours, with lots of responsibility, at daily risk of catching the virus. They have plenty of contact with other humans - maybe too much though, as they probably don't have much time to think, between working and sleeping. I don't think we are being "fed" nonsense by the government in the way you imply, because that would require thousands of scientists and NHS workers to exaggerate things and lie, to fit a false narrative. Our government aren't perfect, but this isn't some 21st century version of Orwell's 1984, the pandemic is real.

Perhaps if you want to raise awareness of rising suicide rates it might be an idea to start a new thread on that subject.

One sensible thing that could have been done would have been to put front line NHS staff first on the list for the vaccination.
The government have got absolutely everything else wrong and they still haven't learned.
At least with a captive audience in hospitals, with laboratory freezers, the logistics of vaccinating would have been reasonably efficient. We used to vaccinate each other when flu vaccine time came round. Easy and quick. 1 person from OH would do an entire department in a day.
There are nurses and doctors working in ICU and on covid wards who haven't even been offered the vaccine. No wonder there are so many off sick and isolating.

@Eastie77

I don't think people are in denial or uncaring. I do think the unrelating, steady drumbeat of doom in the media on a now daily basis has just left many people desensitised and numb to it all. Not a day goes by without reports that "today has seen a record number of new infections.." and after a while people just tune out.

Reading that 1000+ people have died from COVID in the last x days no longer alarms anyone. It has all just become numbers and stats and the R number and data and on and on..

None of this is to say the NHS isn't overwhelmed and we shouldn't feel worried about it. I just don't think many of us have the bandwidth left to worry.

I agree with this wholeheartedly. Communication has been a problem from the start.

We’re told by our Prime Minister (a known liar) to be terrified, but it’s fine that flights from across the world can land in the UK without people on them being properly quarantined. We see the usual croneyism, with contracts for PPE etc being awarded inappropriately.

We hear every year that hospitals are close to collapse, which we know is due to underfunding, poor management or a combination of the two. So when we hear it again it doesn’t really register.

I feel for medical and care staff who are having a terrible time of it but it doesn’t feel immediately relevant to me. I know one person who has had Covid, who lives a couple of hundred miles from me.

If the only way to beat this is through social distancing, masks etc, a new form of messaging needs to be found, because clearly what’s happening so far isn’t hitting the spot for everyone.

I’ve obeyed all rules since the beginning and will continue to do so, but I can feel myself becoming a bit deaf to it all. If I were maybe younger, maybe had less education, maybe were just a bit more selfish, perhaps I’d be breaking the rules, I don’t know.

I really hope you are correct @CherryRoulade.
However I think the new variant is going to alter things greatly.
All those children carrying it home to their families.....

@InMulieribus definition of hire:

www.dictionary.com/browse/hire

to engage the services of (a person or persons) for wages or other payment

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@InMulieribus panicking because they’ve been rumbled. 😆[/quote]
MN becomes more bizarre by the day.

[quote Justamumofadoc]@InMulieribus definition of hire:

www.dictionary.com/browse/hire

to engage the services of (a person or persons) for wages or other payment[/quote]
Is a dictionary definition of 'hire' (in response to what I said was a lazy use of the word in my post) in a thread about the NHS collapsing really the best contribution you can make?

Look. I read what you said. Hire means to do something and get paid for it and you were suggesting that the medics were only saying what they were saying because they were getting paid to say it by the bbc.

You were wrong to use the word hire. It isn’t lazy usage it is wrong.

My friend is a consultant expert to the bbc ad he gets paid quite substantially by them so you’re also wrong that they never pay.

Testing children with dodgy tests that give wrong results will make it impossible to get them to wear masks in corridors and follow the usual measures.
I can see myself now having the usual window battles.. It will give them false confidence.

*and

Plus, I had described the MH of my son being in the toilet and all you could say was “well I was talking to someone else who was Suicidal but all those medics on the tele are just spouting crap because they’re paid to do so” (which is the subtext of what you said) and you didn’t even bother yourself to express any sympathy for my son, so why would I express any for your friend when you didn’t?

That’s what happens when you are governed by corrupt, manipulative deceivers.
Hyperbole-much?
And as to the ‘media blackout’ conspiracy nut jobs, the ‘NHS crisis’ is all over the media. People have quoted the sanctimonious’Jack’ who was given do much airtime yesterday on LBC.
Strange how many ‘ICU’ nurses are on here today...

@Orf1abc

I really don’t understand the media blackout on this

It's not in the interests of those who control the media, financially and politically.

Apart from the fact it’s in The Times and on the BBC?

Haven’t rtft properly but this stood out as interesting

Modelling based on DoHSC data suggests without variant suggests peak admissions by around 4 January and, therefore, peak ITU demand around the 11th. The variant has skewed modelling slightly but it’s still expected to be broadly in line with anticipated peak.

Especially that new variant has only skewed it slightly

What can we do as individuals to help the NHS staff who are going through this hell? Can we send care packages or something?
I don't know anyone personally but I'd love to be able to help in some small way.

@EmmanuelleMakro I don’t generally work on itu but it’s pretty awful seeing the negative comments towards my colleagues who are having a dreadful time.

It’s particularly distasteful that some posters are using this thread to push their school agenda.

@spababe please don’t send care packages. We mostly want people to stick to the rules. And more staff.

I don’t know anyone who is denying we are at a very difficult situation but I’m not sure blaming rule breakers is helping.
People have to go to work, have to take public transport, have to send their kids to school.