If schools stay open, what will next spring look like?

[Noellodee]

I posted this on another thread, but I am really interested in what people think about this.

If possible, I would like just the positive predictions. My reason for that is that I'm perfectly good at coming up with dire predictions all on my own and I think they would probably worry a lot of people with anxiety.

Personally, given the new information about the new strain, I think schools will need to shut to prevent my negative version of the future coming true. However, lots of people think they should stay open and I wonder what version of the future they have.

How many periods of isolation do you foresee for most students?
Do you think lots of teachers / students / parents will get sick? How badly and for how long?
What do you think will be the effect on the virus' spread through the rest of the population?
How do you think this will affect the rest of the economy/society?
Any other comments and predictions welcome.

I think we'll run out of adults in schools so they will have to close. Ill teachers will be unable to set work and if not pre-empted, it will be a shitshow. It's time for the DfE to be proactive not reactive.

I suppose a look at some of the schools in the tier 4 areas that were badly affected by the new strain would give a clue. I think greenwich and some Kent schools.

Our school has always shut as soon as it can.

We have been told that they are delayed back, no further details

My kids wore masks full time in school from Sept, caught virus at school and have missed lots of school

I would hope schools stay open as we have been

Sick of schools being treated differently to supermarkets

All the supermarket workers have had to get on with it, schools should be the same ( I appreciate this is not a popular opinion )

We are t4 by the way!

Went in to nov lockdown in lowest tier, came out t3 now t4-Kent

Lockdown did not work

@MillieEpple

I suppose a look at some of the schools in the tier 4 areas that were badly affected by the new strain would give a clue. I think greenwich and some Kent schools.

I live in Greenwich. My dc's primary had zero cases and no burst bubbles in the whole term. Secondaries were a different story. I really hope primary schools stay open.

Schools are different to supermarkets, unless you spend an hour sat next to other people with no social distancing or masks in your supermarkets

We have had an average of one case a week since September my DC's school (London) but it exploded in the last week with several cases, one of which was my DC. Can't see us being open for long if it's business as usual in Spring.

Supermarkets see hundreds of people in a day

@dingledongle

We are t4 by the way!

Went in to nov lockdown in lowest tier, came out t3 now t4-Kent

Lockdown did not work

because the schools remained open.

So do secondary schools.

@dingledongle

Supermarkets see hundreds of people in a day

if you don't recognise the difference between the set up in our schools and a supermarket there is no hope for you.

The virus is not going away and the idea that we can 'control' it is ludicrous

The lockdown/open up/lockdown is not working

What are people proposing? Schools shut for ever?
Online learning?

How has that worked so far?

I think they will find that the new strain is less dangerous than the original. It is not unheard of for coronaviruses to become more contagious and less dangerous. Of course we also have a vaccine so once a good number of the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated, the NHS will be under considerably less strain and the rest of us can take our chances. So there would be no reason for schools to be closed.

I dont have a school aged child but I prefer to look for the positives.

@dingledongle

The virus is not going away and the idea that we can 'control' it is ludicrous

The lockdown/open up/lockdown is not working

What are people proposing? Schools shut for ever?
Online learning?

How has that worked so far?

I agree but the government has decided thats the route to take and to change their minds now would be an admission they were wrong, so there's no chance. They'll just keep flogging this horse until external factors solve the problem e.g. vaccine

well, according to this study, the deaths and hospitalizations will be worse than 2020

cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html

Nevertheless, the increase in transmissibility is likely to lead to a large increase in incidence, with COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths projected to reach higher levels in 2021 than were observed in 2020, even if regional tiered restrictions implemented before 19 December are maintained. Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed. We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures. It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.

dingle, this is the thing , on line working did very well in many places? So it can work.

@dingledongle

Our school has always shut as soon as it can.

We have been told that they are delayed back, no further details

My kids wore masks full time in school from Sept, caught virus at school and have missed lots of school

I would hope schools stay open as we have been

Sick of schools being treated differently to supermarkets

All the supermarket workers have had to get on with it, schools should be the same ( I appreciate this is not a popular opinion )

How can teachers "just get on with it" if they're all off ill or there aren't enough teaching staff to keep a school open? I thought we were beyond thinking schools were closing due to teaching staff not wanting to teach during the pandemic, as opposed to the actual reality being that staffing levels are dwindling and schools are having to shut because they literally do not have enough staff.

Minimising the issues down to staff not wanting to teach during a pandemic is unhelpful, stifles discussion and actually masks the actual issues that schools are facing.

@dingledongle well we have 2000 kids a day, and on a full day I see about 120 for an hour in a room with poor ventilation. Nothing like a supermarket, but I don't see anyone apart from you saying that it is.

I'm glad supermarkets have been able to get on with it; I presume you have the staff to man it? When we were getting phonecalls at 6am about symptoms from staff and the own children, positive tests popping up galore etc we didn't have the staff. We can't get supply in as there is a shortage, especially for secondary, most of our TAs have literally left and no-one reasonable has applied for the rolls (by that I mean someone with a few GCSEs and no criminal convictions; we aren't asking for much at this point).

When we close a school or a year group we are doing it because we cannot legally open the building to that many kids with so few staff.

We can't just 'get on with it'.

Sick of schools being treated differently to supermarkets

And therein lies the problem.

@dingledongle also, the comparison of teachers with supermarket workers is ridiculous for so many reasons that I can't be bothered to explain, except to say that supermarkets can keep going because they can both afford to and easily replace staff...this is not true for schools on either level.

I don’t think there are many teachers at our school who haven’t had it now.

I’d have liked to try masks, see how the testing in schools work etc but I think it’s too late. Would have made all the difference after half term.

I agree, Angel. I think we might have been in a very different position across the country if we had done those things earlier.

In the March lockdown our school barely did any live teaching. There were many excuses as to why.

Just PowerPoint after PowerPoint. My dyslexic A level daughter fell further and further behind

They had a change of SLT and They seem very on top of live learning now as well as set up for the pandemic, we’ve been in a very high risk area. Appreciate some of this is luck

I am undecided as to what would work on balance. But some of it is definitely about school attitude

Well, schools that were previously badly hit now should be OK as everyone's had it.

We are in tier 4, but only had one case in the dcs primary school (in year 1), and only 1 staff member go off (a new staff member this year) - however back in March, the last week before lockdown there was only half the staff in and very few children. The head ended up in hospital with covid. Everyone wasn't feeling great, even those who weren't officially sick with covid.

I presume we've got away so lightly now because so many of the staff have already had it.

In other schools, they've had to shut for one week or 2 when it hit the staff, but that doesn't happen twice.

So OP, it comes down to your school and area, have lots of people already had it?

Nation wide, we might lockdown again closing schoola, but theres little demand for that outside of MN.

I do wonder if we'll get a week of home schooling either side of the half term in Feb. But that would involve Boris doing some planning, so probably not.

Op you're not going to get the answer you are looking for on here, and you well know it.

Mumsnet, especially the coronavirus section is an echo chamber of people wanting school closures. As you well know.

The only way to stop a virus spreading is vaccines, or behaving the way we did in March, a full lockdown and closure. But closures have dire consequences for so many.

You may well get your wish very soon for the school closures, but let's remember this virus isn't going to go away, even with the vaccine rollout there will likely be many deaths and illness for years to come, school closures WILL have serious, lifelong consequences for so many children and families.