If schools stay open, what will next spring look like?

[Noellodee]

I posted this on another thread, but I am really interested in what people think about this.

If possible, I would like just the positive predictions. My reason for that is that I'm perfectly good at coming up with dire predictions all on my own and I think they would probably worry a lot of people with anxiety.

Personally, given the new information about the new strain, I think schools will need to shut to prevent my negative version of the future coming true. However, lots of people think they should stay open and I wonder what version of the future they have.

How many periods of isolation do you foresee for most students?
Do you think lots of teachers / students / parents will get sick? How badly and for how long?
What do you think will be the effect on the virus' spread through the rest of the population?
How do you think this will affect the rest of the economy/society?
Any other comments and predictions welcome.

However I do believe in more support for schools, from mask wearing to support for testing, school buses not packed like sardines and other previous suggestions

HarkHowTheBells - you sound like you think schools should stay open. How do you think things would look in spring?

sleepwouldbenice, I think A level students are the most suited to online learning via at least partially live lessons. I hope your school goes down this route next time.

op did you say you wanted a positive response to your question? tricky...
-testing rollout delayed

• return for secondaries delayed
• mix of online and irl learning for jan and feb
• opening and shutting and bubbles bursting like has been happening
• tier 4 to continue so kids kept apart from elderly vulnerable
• improvements about April may time?

Schools open- kids lowest risk

Shield vulnerable until they have vaccine

As vaccine rolls out and more people have had vaccine less of an issue

By then kids and leat vulnerable will have had it

Otherwise we keep locking down/ opening up etc etc etc

Well that depends on all kinds of things. Such as testing, our behaviours outside of the school setting, mitigations schools are putting in place and co-operation with them.

My predictions probably won't be as catastrophic as yours, and I would make school a priority.

As I say you're not going to find what you're looking for on here.

Shutting schools should be an absolute last resort and the final decision should come down to the headteacher and the LA, however, a set re-opening date needs to be given.

Oh and they have to provide a solution for children who are too young to access online learning independently. IMO schools should always stay open for them (like key workers & vulnerable children).

Logically, schools will be opening and closing just as they have been. It will run through while schools even with testing and many teachers will end up with serious illness, long covid and some will die. It is hard to predict how problematic that might be - but given that we already have both a recruitment and retention issue with the profession, lots of obvious serious illness and death will make things even worse long term. Many, many teachers are already hanging on by a thread and I know my resignation will be handed in if I am asked to get involved in testing.

On the other hand, closures will further exacerbate the attainment gap and will mean that some children’s abuse goes totally unnoticed.

There are no easy answers.

@dingledongle and how do the teachers fit into that scenario? Kids dont just absorb education from the walls, they need teaching. If most of their teachers are off sick then that wont be happening.

All the teachers and children that have already had it should be fine now.
Regular testing for others...give the resources necessary should mean children and teachers without it aren't sent home unnecessarily.
Vaccine roll out continues for the very elderly ...the people most likely to die or need hospital treatment

If we lock down now for 6 weeks whilst rolling out a vaccine programme we will not have to deal with a disastrous Spring.

@Isthatitnow

Logically, schools will be opening and closing just as they have been. It will run through while schools even with testing and many teachers will end up with serious illness, long covid and some will die. It is hard to predict how problematic that might be - but given that we already have both a recruitment and retention issue with the profession, lots of obvious serious illness and death will make things even worse long term. Many, many teachers are already hanging on by a thread and I know my resignation will be handed in if I am asked to get involved in testing.

On the other hand, closures will further exacerbate the attainment gap and will mean that some children’s abuse goes totally unnoticed.

There are no easy answers.

I haven't had many actual predictions other than this one. I think this is a fairly realistic prediction, but doesn't really touch on the implications for wider society, such as hospitalisation rates.

Is this the most optimistic prediction I'm going to get on here?

agree a delayed start might have been a good thing given the tier 4 scenario over much of the country. frankly I'd have given everyone at least a week's extension on hols for secondary age and then at least a week's online learning while testing fiasco gets sorted. its only fair and sensible so they might announce a delayed start, I dno though they've already committed to online from 4th now and might look wobbly if they change it again.

@SkySports

All the teachers and children that have already had it should be fine now. Regular testing for others...give the resources necessary should mean children and teachers without it aren't sent home unnecessarily. Vaccine roll out continues for the very elderly ...the people most likely to die or need hospital treatment

How many teachers do you think might get it in a school with, for simplicities sake, 100 staff and 1000 kids? Do you think testing will prevent spread in school? How do you think hospitals will cope if cases continue to increase over the next three months?

Even with lockdowns I don't believe that we will see the numbers go down like they did in June.

I believe now it is purely about keeping our heads above water.

I'm sorry but the government aren't trying to save every single life at any cost. I get the impression that a lot on here do believe that we have to save every single life. It's not the case, it's just about making sure that people can access hospital treatment.

Even if they close schools and lockdown, I think we will see a lot more people using their key worker space this time, many businesses that closed last time simply won't this time, people won't stay at home like they did before.

@dingledongle

Supermarkets certainly do have hundreds of people in them, but they all have masks on? Well the majority certainly do. They’re not sitting there together all day with no masks, so your point of view is a complete non starter really.

The new variant is burning through sw London at present. 3 kids in DD’s class and multiple families self isolating.

Last term both DC’s schools remained almost fully open. Bubbles were maintained and very few kids or teachers poorly. My sense is many had it in March and have antibodies. (Backed up by numerous parents who have a private test). Others are getting it now and as such will
be immune by 5th Jan.

With this in mind I see schools being open. Widespread testing will cause more children to isolate than otherwise but unless it mutates and becomes more dangerous I think kids will get it and get over it?

I realise this might get me flamed, but in someways I would prefer my kids to get a milder version now rather than wait and get a potentially more lethal version in February.

This is my positive spin on things!

op i made a few predictions but I think I might leave this thread now as I am sulking coz u didn't read them (shuffles off to John lewis instead). can't see the point really if u cba.

Stircrazyschoolmum So you think we're close to herd immunity already? Wouldn't that be lovely!

Ever so sorry, Stove. I did read your posts and thought you had some sensible and positive predictions.

I was just trying to get some positive predictions from the people who thought schools should go back fully in January and I do apologise, I concentrated on those responses.

Why do people keep talking about kids being the lowest risk?.
We have a new mutant virus with rumours that it does adversely affect younger people?

It's not just the effects of covid though and it's very hard to describe the fear of trying to get urgent medical help when things are over run in health care..

Eg docs close and dd having very bad breathing issues but not such a common occurrence that I am aware of what to do.

So we dash her to a and e as we are told ambulance will take too long, a and e is packed, for some reason reason that year in march lots of children had breathing issues, heaving a and e no capacity, no beds.. We were seen pretty urgently as its a breathing issue and were held in and e for ages because no beds were free, the ward was dirty... No proper cleaning between patients and because so many children had presented at the same time with breathing issues there was a severe shortage of breathing monitors and equipment and they were on the phone desperately trying to pull it from other areas.

That was years ago, no covid... Just a few to many extra issues than the system could cope with and in the middle we have a grey ashen child whose stomach was sucking in and out struggling to breath.