If schools stay open, what will next spring look like?

[Noellodee]

I posted this on another thread, but I am really interested in what people think about this.

If possible, I would like just the positive predictions. My reason for that is that I'm perfectly good at coming up with dire predictions all on my own and I think they would probably worry a lot of people with anxiety.

Personally, given the new information about the new strain, I think schools will need to shut to prevent my negative version of the future coming true. However, lots of people think they should stay open and I wonder what version of the future they have.

How many periods of isolation do you foresee for most students?
Do you think lots of teachers / students / parents will get sick? How badly and for how long?
What do you think will be the effect on the virus' spread through the rest of the population?
How do you think this will affect the rest of the economy/society?
Any other comments and predictions welcome.

Online working didn't work.

I don't know a single person in my personal life that thought the online/home learning worked well last time. Actually I do know just one person, she has an only teenage child who attends private school and they are generally quite reclusive anyway. They haven't left the house since March and I'm quite worried for their mental well being.

My youngest child's primary teacher told me at parents evening that all the children are very behind, and that they've worked so hard with them on their return, it's quite literally been all work and no play for them.

That sounds horrible, Pavlova. I hope your daughter isn't having any more breathing issues these days and that you both have a safe winter.

@dingledongle

The virus is not going away and the idea that we can 'control' it is ludicrous

The lockdown/open up/lockdown is not working

What are people proposing? Schools shut for ever?
Online learning?

How has that worked so far?

this

@Noellodee I’m not sure if you are being sarcastic and obviously my view is anecdotal. In SW London ALOT of people were ill in Feb/March.
A third of DD’s class had it or thought they did and 4 families had this backed up with antibody tests.. in the last few days it’s spiked again and 3 more have it. (I refer to DD’s state primary as I have direct evidence) DS secondary is harder as bubble larger and parents less connected.. but bubble of 120 has not broken once and as a feeder school from primary there are lots of siblings who I guess may also have antibodies. It’s shite to be ill over Christmas but for some kids this is the best time for them to get it.. especially the asymptomatic ones.. as many are not mixing with anyone vulnerable.

I am absolutely not disputing that for vulnerable teachers or kids this is not a nice illness. But the more immunity we can build amongst the clinically well then the less risk to those groups surely?

You asked for positivity!

The testing is a big question mark in my head.. not fair to expect teachers to do it. Not sure I want an inexperienced volunteer to do it either! I’m guessing secondary kids can administer themselves but reliability is questionable and having a false sense of security a worry..

All the supermarket workers have had to get on with it, schools should be the same

You must have different supermarkets compared to the rest of us. Here there are limited numbers, social distancing is meant to be in place, mask wearing and no cashier is surrounded by thirty people for six hours a day in a small room with hand washing as the only means of protection

@PandemicPavolova I’m sorry you have had such a worrying time with your daughter. For anyone clinically vulnerable this is a horrible time. xx

I haven't had many actual predictions other than this one. I think this is a fairly realistic prediction, but doesn't really touch on the implications for wider society, such as hospitalisation rates

In which case....hospitalisation rates will rise and if more children are infected, some will end up hospitalised. Hospitals will struggle and some people will die from other issues - my own child was diagnosed with type1 some years ago at the 11th hour and would have died had we not got him treatment at the point we did. A full hospital and busy doctors will mean that people get sent home when they shouldn’t. Brexit will only add to panic and confusion with some foods becoming difficult to get hold of and rising prices causing panic and panic buying. We could see fear play itself out through civil unrest which means deployment of the military into,our neighbourhoods.

Meanwhile, the sheer numbers of people with covid could mean that essential services are affected. This means longer to fix your internet or your lack of electricity simply because staff are off sick.

I think, however, this will be short lived as the vaccine effects kick in. By Easter we will begin to see things improve.

That sounds realistic, too, Isthatitnow.

Thank you for the reminder that this will pass, and even though it's looking grim for the spring, it should start getting better after that.

www.africanews.com/2020/12/21/south-africa-detects-new-variant-of-coronavirus

a shift in the epidemiological landscape, with more younger patients, without co-morbidities, developing severe forms of the disease

I think its time we stopped using the old excuses, find some new ones if you want but based on new findings at least ^^

Really using my imagination....we could have issues with vaccine roll out. Tussles at vaccination centres, staff held at knife point (or worse) whilst someone shuffles their grandparent to the front of the queue. Have a go heros begin to emerge. Extra security required for healthcare staff generally. Hold up of vehicles known to be carrying the vaccine as someone believes their gran’s care home has waited long enough.

My personal fear is medicine shortages due to Brexit. With a child reliant on insulin to stay alive, this is the one thing I keep trying to put to the back of my mind. Very worrying. I am not sure what desperation may cause people to do.

If schools stay open I will hand in my notice. I'm clinically vulnerable and one prescription a year off shielding - in Scotland I would be shielded. In England I'm expected to go to work in unsafe classrooms and now they aren't isolating close contacts either.
I taught online all summer, haven't had more than 2 weeks off all year (and work weekends). And in return I don't even get a safe workplace. The unions are useless on this point.
I'm done. Completely done.

Sorry to hear that, SchroedingersUnicorn. You must feel incredibly stressed at the moment.

@dingledongle

Our school has always shut as soon as it can.

We have been told that they are delayed back, no further details

My kids wore masks full time in school from Sept, caught virus at school and have missed lots of school

I would hope schools stay open as we have been

Sick of schools being treated differently to supermarkets

All the supermarket workers have had to get on with it, schools should be the same ( I appreciate this is not a popular opinion )

I mean the thing is, it's a lot easier to qualify as a supermarket worker than a teacher right? So if the supermarket workers become ill it is easier to redeploy other workers to cover their tasks as they. Can be trained over a few days or weeks to reskill, rather than the four years plus it takes a teacher to be qualified. I'm guessing you want your children to be taught by someone qualified to do so? What do you suggest they do in those circumstances - should teachers come in while sick (which it sounds like the new virus will make a lot more people sick at the same time as it spreads so fast) or should they just employ people to mind the children so they can work in a school environment but will still be working off worksheets and laptops as there won't be enough qualified teachers to teach? (Or work at home but with access to teacher via zoom or ms teams or whatever). I don't think any of the choices are desirable but I can't see another option - can you?

To those who have mentioned teachers and students already having had COVID, four teachers in my school who had it in March (with confirmed antibodies), contracted COVID again at the end of November.

So I don’t think it’s as straightforward to say that schools can open because enough teachers/students have had it already, therefore won’t catch it again.

Noellodee

Thanks op, that actually happened twice and there were more issues I don't want to write about as is outing.

But its terrifying, another March DF was waiting outside his hospital for 7 hours in an ambulance and ambulance drivers have said - that causes them issues begging in confined space with possible covid patients.

@lineandsinker

To those who have mentioned teachers and students already having had COVID, four teachers in my school who had it in March (with confirmed antibodies), contracted COVID again at the end of November.

So I don’t think it’s as straightforward to say that schools can open because enough teachers/students have had it already, therefore won’t catch it again.

I thought one of the biggest concerns about the new strain is that you can be reinfected with it too?

I don't know a single person in my personal life that thought the online/home learning worked well last time

Well I know absolutely loads where it worked really well and was done properly, I keep repeating this but I work with students with milder SEN, SN etc and FSM and many of them preferred on line teaching and many with MH issues, anxiety also preferred on line teaching. Of course some didn't but they were safe, occupied, doing something productive, and moving forward with their education.

I also have friends DC at grammar and they flew on line! My own dd was not given the chance because her school just gave us barrels of wet excuses.

BUt please no blanket statements that on line doesn't work - its an amazing bonus that we have these options. Lets use them.

I think schools struggled through to Christmas and parents aren't always aware of how tricky things were because we do our best to minimise disruption for the children. In fact as a large-ish primary we were very close to having to close some classes because of a lack of staff , not because of cases within the school itself but because of large numbers of staff having to remain at home with their own young children who were either positive or isolating from other schools.
Come January I predict we will have increasing cases within the school, more whole class closures and staff spread so thinly that whole school closure is fairly likely at some stage.
In terms of online learning I'm proud of what we provide but even in a relatively affluent area like this a high proportion of pupils don't engage at all. In addition those who are supposedly isolating are regularly spotted out and about with their parents so community spread is inevitable.
Sorry if this sounds depressing- as a staff group we are all pretty low

You want positive predictions? I’ll do my best!

Schools will reopen and the testing system will be all ready to go, staffed by confident smiling parents who have volunteered, all newly medically certified and able to safely carry out the tests on children or supervise the children whilst they carry out the tests themselves.

The children will queue (SD of course) and one by one, have the test without fuss or fear. All parents will have consented, because who wouldn’t? This is a great idea! They’ll then be taken to socially distanced classrooms where a full body of healthy staff will entertain them whilst they await results.

Results will come in - they are all negative! And school will start.

Children will sit at their SD desks wearing masks and teachers will open the newly fixed windows, allowing air from outside to come in. The classrooms will be warm and the air will be a refreshing breeze...is it going too far to say the scent of the ocean will permeate the classrooms inspiring new ideas in all?

A days learning will happen, with a normal (for us) attendance figure of 98.5% of pupils present. Those off sick will be off with the normal seasonal flu or tummy bugs.

Children will stick to their bubbles walking home and staff will spend the evening creating wonderful resources for online - just incase - but they won’t be needed! And they will be thrilled that they are able to spend their free time in such a useful way.

Meanwhile the virus will see that schools are secure and it will think of where else it can spread instead. It will decide to only infect people in tax offices; finance roles and other office environments, so all of those people will continue to work from home.

Schools will be so safe in fact, that GP’s will be able to resume risk free wrap around care without any issues at all.

If a child does get the virus (which we all know is highly unlikely), they will inform the school who will see that due to SD, no one else is affected. The child probably caught the virus from their own GP’s who have been having parties of more than 6 people!! The child will obviously not have been able to spread the virus, so they will take 10 days off, or perhaps we’ll reduce it to 7 soon and the teachers will all send them that online work they’ve been creating in their spare time! Yay!

It will be wonderful...and even the school canteen food will also be vastly improved! Not sure why, but it will.

@DBML

You want positive predictions? I’ll do my best!

Schools will reopen and the testing system will be all ready to go, staffed by confident smiling parents who have volunteered, all newly medically certified and able to safely carry out the tests on children or supervise the children whilst they carry out the tests themselves.

The children will queue (SD of course) and one by one, have the test without fuss or fear. All parents will have consented, because who wouldn’t? This is a great idea! They’ll then be taken to socially distanced classrooms where a full body of healthy staff will entertain them whilst they await results.

Results will come in - they are all negative! And school will start.

Children will sit at their SD desks wearing masks and teachers will open the newly fixed windows, allowing air from outside to come in. The classrooms will be warm and the air will be a refreshing breeze...is it going too far to say the scent of the ocean will permeate the classrooms inspiring new ideas in all?

A days learning will happen, with a normal (for us) attendance figure of 98.5% of pupils present. Those off sick will be off with the normal seasonal flu or tummy bugs.

Children will stick to their bubbles walking home and staff will spend the evening creating wonderful resources for online - just incase - but they won’t be needed! And they will be thrilled that they are able to spend their free time in such a useful way.

Meanwhile the virus will see that schools are secure and it will think of where else it can spread instead. It will decide to only infect people in tax offices; finance roles and other office environments, so all of those people will continue to work from home.

Schools will be so safe in fact, that GP’s will be able to resume risk free wrap around care without any issues at all.

If a child does get the virus (which we all know is highly unlikely), they will inform the school who will see that due to SD, no one else is affected. The child probably caught the virus from their own GP’s who have been having parties of more than 6 people!! The child will obviously not have been able to spread the virus, so they will take 10 days off, or perhaps we’ll reduce it to 7 soon and the teachers will all send them that online work they’ve been creating in their spare time! Yay!

It will be wonderful...and even the school canteen food will also be vastly improved! Not sure why, but it will.

I liked this last line very good

@MarshaBradyo

You don’t think it was too much? 😬

Apt first this time of year I think. Full of Christmas cheer

@DBML you nailed it!

Schools open- kids lowest risk

Sod the staff. Not like the kids need teachers in front of them to teach or anything.

All the supermarket workers have had to get on with it, schools should be the same

Supermarkets have masks, social distancing and you aren't in a small room with no masks on for 1+ hours at a time. If you are, your supermarket is doing it wrong.

My prediction is extended phased return at secondary. Primary open with onus on schools to make bubbles as small as possible.

@DBML 👏 👏