Second new variant identified

[Coolieloach]

Just listening to Matt Hancock- I second mutation brought in from South Africa- I honestly didn’t think it could get any worse 😬

'Doctors in South Africa have also noted a shift in the epidemiological landscape, with more younger patients, without co-morbidities, developing severe forms of the disease.'
www.africanews.com/2020/12/21/south-africa-detects-new-variant-of-coronavirus

The one thing I held onto throughout this is that DC wouldn't be affected. The news tonight is dreadful

Why haven't we banned entry into the UK from S.A?

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

I’m not quite sure what the government were supposed to do here. If they’d created tier 4 and not mentioned the mutation, while sending a report to the WHO saying that it looked like we had a significant mutation they’d have been hung out to dry.

The rapid rise in cases needed acting on whether it was the mutation or not causing it.

Exactly this. I'm no Tory fan, but they can't win either way. It's not 'hysterical' to make the public aware that a new variant is more transmissible and cases are climbing exponentially and are, indeed, out of control, is it?

I do struggle when people use the word hysteria about these things. It's a misogynistic word in itself and tends to be used to gaslight and shut somebody up. The government are sharing what scientists have uncovered, what else could they do?

I am not reassured by Moondusts post, because after reading the thread about the new strain on here and then a number of medical articles it seems this variant differs to the normal. That thread is really worth a read - lots of people who know what they're talking about when it comes to the science, and very calm and measured which helps in all this.

@WheneverIsForever

'Doctors in South Africa have also noted a shift in the epidemiological landscape, with more younger patients, without co-morbidities, developing severe forms of the disease.' www.africanews.com/2020/12/21/south-africa-detects-new-variant-of-coronavirus

The one thing I held onto throughout this is that DC wouldn't be affected. The news tonight is dreadful

Why haven't we banned entry into the UK from S.A?

What I don’t get is that this was mentioned a fair few days ago, on here even, and reaction is slower than to U.K. strain

They will still open the schools I bet. Despite the fact it might not be safe.
It will be a case of testing and putting the teachers under pressure to do it all :(
Let's hope this new SA strain isn't that bad.

I think it's very convenient for a government losing their grip on a virus due to inactivity, to blame a 'new mutation' on the fast rising numbers. There's always a new mutation with viruses like this, it's no different. Yes it has proven to be more easily transmissible but as expected, people are gathering together indoors now it's winter, where the virus can get about more as well.

@WheneverIsForever

'Doctors in South Africa have also noted a shift in the epidemiological landscape, with more younger patients, without co-morbidities, developing severe forms of the disease.' www.africanews.com/2020/12/21/south-africa-detects-new-variant-of-coronavirus

The one thing I held onto throughout this is that DC wouldn't be affected. The news tonight is dreadful

Why haven't we banned entry into the UK from S.A?

I think we need more info before worrying. They havent specified what "younger" means or how big the larger proportion is. They have said that the infections are mainly in the young and there have been huge festivals recently so it could be due to a huge number of infections in younger people. There will always be a very low % who end up very ill. There were some uni students in ICU in the UK in Sept. Hopefully this is more the case rather than it has become more dangerous

@Haffiana ''But he does have some facts and he gave them. Are you actually watching him or just watching comments on here?''

For goodness sake. What ''facts'' does he have at this stage? The scientists are still figuring whether the vaccine will work on those mutations, although manufacturers are claiming it is 'likely' it will, and we don't know yet what the long term impact will be (more contagious, yes, but is it actually milder or not, does it affect young people more). That's what matters and those take time to verify and study.

All we have is politicians bleating about things being '70%' more contagious one day, 'between 50% and 70% ' the next and so on when the scientists have not yet had the time to assess things.

That just confuses everyone and causes chaos.

Nothing to add, just wanted to keep track of this thread as it's great to read some balanced views (and I'm such a panicker!)

@Nellodee

I imagine that our test and isolate system puts pressure on our homebrew variants to be as asymptomatic as possible. Hopefully, this is the case with our new strain. I'd love to see a super contagious version that managed to become dominant by being spread wholly asymptomatically.

That’d be great if our test and isolate system worked. Don’t we have some of the worst compliance with isolation rates in the world?

"I think we need more info before worrying. They havent specified what "younger" means or how big the larger proportion is. They have said that the infections are mainly in the young and there have been huge festivals recently so it could be due to a huge number of infections in younger people. There will always be a very low % who end up very ill. There were some uni students in ICU in the UK in Sept. Hopefully this is more the case rather than it has become more dangerous"

This. Sky News is specifying 'young adults' being more affected currently which ties in with what you say about festivals.

There's some very measured and clever people on here so I hope this is ok to ask even though it's not the point of thread ?!

With regards testing in schools.
They will do LFT and if positive you do a PCR?
You then isolate for the 10 days if positive (wither from symptoms starting or from positive as asymptomatic)
The close contracts are then tested daily for 7 days and follow same procedure as above?

Here's the question. We know that PCR tests can be positive for up to 3 months after being infected and sometimes longer?
Does the LFT have the same results? If so I can see this being problematic?

So person A shows symptoms on day 1. Positive LFT and on day 3 has positive PCR.

Persona B C and D are tested daily. B and C get positives and isolate.

Person E is contact of B and eventually they test positive. 16 days (for example have passed by this point)

Turns out that person A has since been a close contact of E. what are the realistic chances they'll get another positive within that 7 days if they have dead virus in their system?

What happens then? Now we know you can catch it twice although it's not thought to be a high percentage of people. Will people have to re isolate?

Is there a realistic chance this could cause small groups of close contacts in schools to be re isolating in a cycle? Does that mean in some cases that whole groups (assuming table plans bubbles etc) could end up isolating for much more time than the test/positive/isolate system?

I assume though that people have isolated multiple times the previous system even if they'd have a previous positive?

Slightly off topic, but commenting on the test and trace. DD had a postive result and T & T were fabulous. Phoned her every other day whilst she was in isolation. The first woman spent ages on the phone, saying how much she empathised with her situation, as she had a son of the same age, and she would hate him to be in London on his own. Really made DD think that someone cared.

She only had a mild dose, but I was very grateful for the contact from knowledgeable strangers, who were able to answer her questions and put her mind at ease.

Useful Q and A about the new Covid19 variant in South Africa:
www.krisp.org.za/news.php?id=460