Second new variant identified

[Coolieloach]

Just listening to Matt Hancock- I second mutation brought in from South Africa- I honestly didn’t think it could get any worse 😬

@Chloemol

There are going to be lots of new mutations, it’s how viruses survive

But by allowing unrestricted travel we are fast-tracking them into the UK population.

I know people on holiday in Dubai and Maldives, the latter probably not a direct flight. All these people had to travel into a tier 4 area to fly out of the country and will have to do the same to come home, even though at the point of department and return travel was not allowed into/out of a tier 4 area. Even the current restrictions in the UK are totally ineffectual.

department = departure

MarshaBradyo
Listening to the science committee this morning didn’t ‘scare’ me

But it’s clear the data is there. No matter how it’s relayed and how people react to it.

Yes this. Well put.
The numbers are concerning, to say the least, and I'm not sure how the briefing today could have put it any differently, with or without mentioning the new strain, the numbers/graphs speak for themselves

Of course it's not news that viruses mutate.
It's news that this one much more transmissible and is already resulting in increased hospital admissions which will
result in more deaths.

It's not panic we need but a level of appropriate concern which will result in effective action.

I was objecting to a lot of posts with the
word hysteria in.

What would your plan be Moondust? Genuine question. Do you feel the
increased restrictions are not necessary.?
I may be misunderstanding you .

I certainly agree about the NHS being underfunded and the government response til now being pretty poor.

@MarinPrime

Its not reassuring to hear that it's normal for viruses to mutate and that there have possibly been many covid mutations since the virus emerged. All the more reason to wonder if one or two of them may be worse than the original.

Generally speaking, viruses mutate to become more transmissible but less lethal. From the virus's perspective, killing off its host before it gets a chance to replicate and spread is very inefficient. Far better to mutate to become easier to catch but cause a less serious illness in the host (albeit there will always be a minority who are particularly vulnerable to a virus in just about any of its forms, for differing reasons).

The fact that although rising, the number of deaths is not increasing exactly in line with the rate of new infections suggests that that might be what is happening here, although it is obviously too soon to say for certain.

Most people will not have a serious case of covid, that's very true.

But enough will need hospital to cause a problem if this new strain is not stamped on quickly.

It's a shame if you leave the thread.

It's true that what is lacking is robust discussion, otherwise the threads are literally pointless echo chambers.

Click here to be scared shitless,
Click there to be reassured

Or let's find out from reliable sources what actually happening and take personal responsibility to do our best to help.

Whatever that looks like. In my case I can do fuck all except stay away from people (which upset my daughter today as she is currently isolating as a contact).

And this.

That was for Moondust btw

Generally speaking, viruses mutate to become more transmissible but less lethal. From the virus's perspective, killing off its host before it gets a chance to replicate and spread is very inefficient. Far better to mutate to become easier to catch but cause a less serious illness in the host (albeit there will always be a minority who are particularly vulnerable to a virus in just about any of its forms, for differing reasons).

Covid is already pretty efficient in this regard though (the bastard!) It's a mild illness in most cases - many of those with the virus don't even know they have it - so they could be up and about, spreading the virus for days before becoming ill enough to stay at home. There's no real pressure on covid to mutate to something less severe.

My friends are in SA. They flew out to parents over a week ago after all had negative tests. They not due to fly back for another 10 days but they have to goto Germany and get a connecting flight to UK. The parents are in middle of nowhere and they haven't been touring anywhere, they usually go every Xmas. I hope they can get home OK. Made me feel sick hearing the conference today.

@Piwlyfbicsly

I’m not panicking about a new strain (I have no panic left... too tired). However I remember people reassuring each other at the very start of Covid and look what happens now. We should never underestimate anything in this pandemic anymore.

I agree. All over in 12 weeks. All over by Christmas Now, might be Easter 2021 with the vaccines. Even then it won't be all over of course. It's not a situation people can predict ( when though they tried to) but these mutants are to be concerned about surely? Plus they can't be too gloomy as people won't comply with the rules. It's all smoke and mirrors to keep us going I think.

It's strange to read these messages, and the articles in the press.
They sound like a virus is capable of thought, and laying plans. As if it knows that vaccines are on the way. Or can dodge a mask.

As if it was evil by intent.

It's RNA evolving rapidly. Is that not correct? Is there more I don't understand?

From the virus's perspective, killing off its host before it gets a chance to replicate and spread is very inefficient

SARS-COV2 has already got that one cracked, as it spreads in the 48 hours before symptoms show.

And still our airways are open to receive any variant the entire world has to offer us

Precisely

How interesting that our government continue churning out measures which can be difficult or even impossible to enforce, yet neglect this one which could make an obvious difference

@IcedPurple

Generally speaking, viruses mutate to become more transmissible but less lethal. From the virus's perspective, killing off its host before it gets a chance to replicate and spread is very inefficient. Far better to mutate to become easier to catch but cause a less serious illness in the host (albeit there will always be a minority who are particularly vulnerable to a virus in just about any of its forms, for differing reasons).

Covid is already pretty efficient in this regard though (the bastard!) It's a mild illness in most cases - many of those with the virus don't even know they have it - so they could be up and about, spreading the virus for days before becoming ill enough to stay at home. There's no real pressure on covid to mutate to something less severe.

True Iced

@Moondust001, whilst I agree that this government is absolutely responsible for running our health system into the ground, NO healthcare system can cope with a continuing exponential demand on its services.

Previously, we were able to bring Covid under control, albeit at great cost. Now, we may not be able to do this. In many areas, we have only schools left to close. After that, if we have still not brought R to 1, we are in a race between the vaccine and the collapse of our healthcare system, and it is neither a race we can afford to lose, nor one I think we can win.

Telling people there is nothing to see and no need for concern because mutations are normal is comforting, but what we need is for people to take this very, very seriously indeed.

It's a scare tactic to make people compliant over Xmas and new year... Virus change all the time and quite often they become easier to transmit but less lethal... We will find this out hopefully in the new year!

@Forgetmenot157

It's a scare tactic to make people compliant over Xmas and new year... Virus change all the time and quite often they become easier to transmit but less lethal... We will find this out hopefully in the new year!

Unfortunately this is not necessarily the case.

It could be but the conditions aren’t there for it to happen in a way it is for other viruses

I imagine that our test and isolate system puts pressure on our homebrew variants to be as asymptomatic as possible. Hopefully, this is the case with our new strain. I'd love to see a super contagious version that managed to become dominant by being spread wholly asymptomatically.

African countries have younger populations. So from the virus' point of view it would make sense to mutate into a form that infects younger people enough to make them get sick and cough and spread the disease.

Placemarking. Some really good, rational discussions on here (for once!)

@Nellodee

I imagine that our test and isolate system puts pressure on our homebrew variants to be as asymptomatic as possible. Hopefully, this is the case with our new strain. I'd love to see a super contagious version that managed to become dominant by being spread wholly asymptomatically.

I wouldn’t mind that either

As long as it made us immune

N*ellodee
*
I remember you from the very early threads when covid was mainly abroad. You called it right then for sure.

I'm renaming you Cassandra

I feel unsettled about this new news but it's all out of our control isn't it?
Maybe there are things they are not telling us , but it's so hard to know what to believe anymore.
Best to just see what happens stick to the rules as best as possible and hope the vaccine roll out goes well

Ollie

Yes, it would be interesting to keep a thread going which isn't polarised mudslinging.