Second new variant identified

[Coolieloach]

Just listening to Matt Hancock- I second mutation brought in from South Africa- I honestly didn’t think it could get any worse 😬

@VaTeLaverLesMains

Am i alone on this thread not being reassured by moondust? Have they got a relevant medical or scientific background? * * I thought the rapidly increased rate of hospital admissions and cases for the new strain at the press conference were impressive and concerning.

One of the graphs was heading towards the vertical in the hockey stick out of control pattern .

The government scientific advisors seem to agree.

I would think there's a good chance of the NHS becoming overwhelmed by this if people don't take the restrictions seriously.

This could have a catastrophic effect in survival rates of covid and non Covid disease as people cannot access basic care.

False reassurance is dangerous if it means people won't follow rules.

Yes, the rapid increase increase in hospital admissions is a concern with the 2 new variants. They appear to have the same mutation that makes the virus more easily transmissible.

Having both strains here probably won't make much difference to the number of cases over having just one because they are competing with each other.

It would be more concerning if they had different mutations that make them more transmissible or one more virulent (severe) than the other. Then there is the risk that people catch both at the same time and the 2 strains combine to create a virus with all those mutations.

I missed out a however there! I meant: However, having both strains...

@EasterIssland just turn sky news on - it's a great big banner going across the bottom! The UK has banned incoming flights from SA.

@SchadenfreudePersonified

I just get the impression they say this about the new variants etc to make people comply with the restrictions even more

But even if this was true (which I don't think it is), if people were compliant with the guidelines all of this would not be necessary, would it?

There may not be as much to see here as the government would have us believe.

From today's Daily Telegraph:
"There were more than 12,000 mutations detected in the first 50,000 Sars-Cov-2 genomes studied and scientists have now recorded more than four times that number."

Meanwhile, on LBC, Professor Robert Dingwall, a Nervtag member, said he was surprised that after the advisory group expressed “moderate confidence that there was something we should be concerned about”, that this was “transformed over the course of 24 hours into a national panic”.

I don't think being concerned and wanting to take action about a novel virus spreading exponentially in a situation where the health services are already stretched is 'hysterical'.

Just a sensible reaction to a real world wide recognised threat to people's health.

The economy won't function if death rates are doubling out of control every week.

Any other reaction is counterproductive and will prolong and worsen the situation.

I’m not panicking about a new strain (I have no panic left... too tired).
However I remember people reassuring each other at the very start of Covid and look what happens now. We should never underestimate anything in this pandemic anymore.

@amicissimma

There may not be as much to see here as the government would have us believe.

From today's Daily Telegraph:
"There were more than 12,000 mutations detected in the first 50,000 Sars-Cov-2 genomes studied and scientists have now recorded more than four times that number."

Meanwhile, on LBC, Professor Robert Dingwall, a Nervtag member, said he was surprised that after the advisory group expressed “moderate confidence that there was something we should be concerned about”, that this was “transformed over the course of 24 hours into a national panic”.

Yes that is true. But it’s also why this variant emerged in September and didn’t get acted on until now. It takes time for the data to show it is of concern.

Then they trace it back to start date. They can’t act on every mutation.

I was doing ok now heard about this South African variant and scared for my kids !!! How much more that people take

@Moondust001 so well put.

I think the government / media have a duty of care not to scare people, which they are doing now. Makes me so angry that many are too terrified to leave thier house!

I’m not quite sure what the government were supposed to do here. If they’d created tier 4 and not mentioned the mutation, while sending a report to the WHO saying that it looked like we had a significant mutation they’d have been hung out to dry.

The rapid rise in cases needed acting on whether it was the mutation or not causing it.

surely the new variant will soon outcompete all the others?

[quote Remmy123]@Moondust001 so well put.

I think the government / media have a duty of care not to scare people, which they are doing now. Makes me so angry that many are too terrified to leave thier house![/quote]
It is the media that have scared me

@Spiratedaway
Virus doesn’t care sadly!
That’s why everyone has to try to do their best. And not being “exempt because...”. I saw it all, from play dates during lockdown to international travel from the tier 4 and realised that people will never care or understand until it hits them hard. I also hoped it would be over by now:(

Listening to the science committee this morning didn’t ‘scare’ me

But it’s clear the data is there. No matter how it’s relayed and how people react to it.

Yoho in some areas it already has. The graphs were in the press conference.

[quote Piwlyfbicsly]@Spiratedaway
Virus doesn’t care sadly!
That’s why everyone has to try to do their best. And not being “exempt because...”. I saw it all, from play dates during lockdown to international travel from the tier 4 and realised that people will never care or understand until it hits them hard. I also hoped it would be over by now:([/quote]
I know it doesn't but does not stop people being scared and it is getting worse can't see this ever ending I just hope the vaccine works

@VaTeLaverLesMains

I don't think being concerned and wanting to take action about a novel virus spreading exponentially in a situation where the health services are already stretched is 'hysterical'.

Just a sensible reaction to a real world wide recognised threat to people's health.

The economy won't function if death rates are doubling out of control every week.

Any other reaction is counterproductive and will prolong and worsen the situation.

I would suggest you reread what i said. I neither said don't be concerned, and nor did I say that the potential for the health service to be overrun is hysterical. Oddly, I pointed out that the reason the health service cannot cope with this situation is the government's fault. That most people will still not have a serious case of Covid if they even contract it. These are facts. And I made it clear that purple do need to exercise caution and care. But isn't it so much more fun to misquote people or wind up people already unreasonably scared into a state of hysteria, then nit pick semantics about language rather than deal with facts? Let's just scare the bejeezus out of everybody.

Everything i have posted here is a verifiable fact - anyone can go and check those facts themselves. By all means you keep on spreading panic though. That'll improve things so much. I've said what I wanted to, now I'll leave you and your friends to turn this into yet another " we are doomed and we are all going to die" thread, because we have so few of those.

I think people want false reassurance because they're scared, and it can come across as a sort of bravado.

I'm not scared or hysterical but realistic and concerned that this is a very serious situation nationally and internationally.

It warrants serious, concerted, coordinated prompt, scientifically backed action at individual, countrywide and global levels.

And I say this as someone mid chemo, with school exam age children, who has lost my income over this.

So don't say I'm 'enjoying' the prospect of more lockdown.

I am also medically trained if that is of interest. And can't have vaccine.

Moondust it’s really not a doomed all going to die thread. Although there are plenty of those.

Data shows an increase which marks this variant out from others. I’m not sure why that fact is such a bad thing to say.

And still our airways are open to receive any variant the entire world has to offer us...

Most low-rate sensible countries only have essential travel, followed by proper monitored quarantine.

If the UK continues to be a giant chicken-pox-style party for the world's virus mutations, this will continue to happen and the UK will suffer. The UK government needs to realise that burying its head in the sand to virus mutations around the world is not an effective policy.

Its not reassuring to hear that it's normal for viruses to mutate and that there have possibly been many covid mutations since the virus emerged.
All the more reason to wonder if one or two of them may be worse than the original.

And still people can fly here from South Africa as long as they quarantine.... It would be much more effective just to stop flights from South Africa so that no further cases are imported in the UK.

Hear hear

There are going to be lots of new mutations, it’s how viruses survive