Surely we’ll all be in full lockdown very soon?

[Browneyedgirl20]

With the recent travel bans and now freight banned from France, Hancock saying the new variant is ‘out of control’ etc - how long can it be until the whole UK is in lockdown? A few days maybe?

I would love to challenge you to be able to distinguish between my tier 3 accent and that of my sister who lives 1/2 mile away in tier 2. Maybe we could do some kind of Christmas “guess the tier” quiz!

Tier 3 accents? Fucking hell
FFS yes. Accents from places currently in tier 3, pretty obvious what I meant. Not difficult is it.

I think the next 2-3 months are going to be tough. I also think the panic is that lockdown is not going to be effective this time - previous one brought the R down to 0.6. This strain is a minimum of 0.4 higher no lockdown measures are going to work at keeping the R number at a level that means numbers fall

Managing it until vaccine and natural immunity kicks in is probably the one way out of this now. It’s why they are so panicked

Tier 4 or November-style lockdown is not sufficient for this new variant.

In September, Medway had 7 cases per 100,000; first day of lockdown = 175; last day of lockdown = 438; after 2 weeks of Tier 3 = 786.

Cases will continue to grow despite Tier 4 or November-style lockdown in areas with this new variant. I'm devastated to say it, but it seems like only the closure of schools is likely to work.

I have a 'Tier 3 accent' (actually snorted out a bit of coffee at that!). I live in Tier 1. I'm under no illusions that I'm special or unique because of that.

I'm in a Tier 2 area but have Tier 4 areas to the North, West and South of us. My nearest Tesco is in a T4 county. I cannot see how the new variant won't spread. Even if everyone sticks to the rules, there is going to be crossing of borders. Eg our GP surgery (T2) has several members of staff who live in a T4 area because housing is much cheaper there. Our local hospital has lots of staff who live in one of the nearby T4 counties.
People are allowed to cross in/out of T4 areas for work, childcare and support bubble reasons.
We will all be in full lockdown before NYE is my prediction

and I predict with the escape of Londoners on the trains yesterday than many parts of the country will be put in 'tier 4' on the 30th

This (I’m not getting into a silly semantics argument over what constitutes ‘a Londoner’)

If you recall the crowds at the London train stations yesterday and think of Lockdown as stopping epode from bring the scary new mutant strain to your area, does that help?

And this.

All merrily transporting the new strain of the virus up to the northern cities. I’d they didn’t have it when they got on those trains, they will when they get off thanks to packed conditions. Great. Tier 4 pretty much guaranteed for the north and midlands.

What I don’t get is, when LNER have been really strict so far about social distancing on trains, to the extent that you had to have a booked seat before travelling, who decided that just when a more virulent strain of the virus had been identified, and just before people had been told to stay at home in London and the SE and not travel, it would be a great idea to allow people to flood onto the trains unrestrictedly?

What a stupid decision. The only justification I can think of is that Network Rail were worried about civil disobedience if they told the selfish sods that they couldn’t get on the trains without a booked seat, or otherwise tried to enforce social distancing.

I think the people from Manchester having days out for cocktails and shopping in Liverpool are a good example of folk noticing "Tier 3 accents"

@XiCi out of interest you might want to know that I hear many many tier 2 accents in my local national trust place. It’s crawling with them. Hope they don’t contaminate themselves and bring it back to Liverpool.

@Iamthewombat

and I predict with the escape of Londoners on the trains yesterday than many parts of the country will be put in 'tier 4' on the 30th

This (I’m not getting into a silly semantics argument over what constitutes ‘a Londoner’)

If you recall the crowds at the London train stations yesterday and think of Lockdown as stopping epode from bring the scary new mutant strain to your area, does that help?

And this.

All merrily transporting the new strain of the virus up to the northern cities. I’d they didn’t have it when they got on those trains, they will when they get off thanks to packed conditions. Great. Tier 4 pretty much guaranteed for the north and midlands.

What I don’t get is, when LNER have been really strict so far about social distancing on trains, to the extent that you had to have a booked seat before travelling, who decided that just when a more virulent strain of the virus had been identified, and just before people had been told to stay at home in London and the SE and not travel, it would be a great idea to allow people to flood onto the trains unrestrictedly?

What a stupid decision. The only justification I can think of is that Network Rail were worried about civil disobedience if they told the selfish sods that they couldn’t get on the trains without a booked seat, or otherwise tried to enforce social distancing.

Ffs.

Its already been said by the Welsh government that the new strain has seeded in every part of wales.

We know the new variant has been found in at least 50 places across the country.

By the time T4 was brought in, it was already everywhere and you should be looking with as much suspicion at anyone who has has been to wales recently as anyone coming out of London.

I can tell you right now that there are bits of the NW looking very suspicious as it is.

My North East accented cousin in London has a Tier 3 accent.
Ffs. We should all be in a national lockdown if Hancock describes it as out of control.

@XiCi

Tier 3 accents? Fucking hell FFS yes. Accents from places currently in tier 3, pretty obvious what I meant. Not difficult is it.

It's not difficult to understand what you meant, and I think part of the reason people are so amused by it is because to an extent we know what you mean. But, also, it's a bit ridiculous. We're a pretty mobile country. I've lived in four of the nine English regions. My family are scattered across the country. I went to the beach with my daughter when Liverpool was one of the few places in Tier 3 and we had a bit of (safe distance) chat with a group of young men with strong Scouse accents. When we went back to the car, we both said that it had crossed our minds that they might be down here on holiday (spreading the virus!), but then we checked ourselves and remembered that people are in different places for all sorts of reasons - they might have been at the university, or working on the docks, or recently moved here. The point is, I stopped my 'not from around here' thought process, because you just don't know and it doesn't help anyone to be accusing other people of things with no justification. I don't want to have to feel self-conscious about my accent in one of my local shops and, thankfully, so far, I haven't done.

Erm yes Philcornwall. Its really not hard to spot. Different areas have different accents.

So, using your logic, if I'm out today and hear say a London accent, I immediately think "you bastard!! You're from Tier 4 and travelled down into Tier 1!!"

My neighbour across the road sounds more cockney than Micky Flanagan and has been living here 3 odd years.

Whilst there are obviously regional accents, you can't assume.

I expect something will happen today, eg more in tier four and less allowed the Christmas day mixing if anyone.
I think the queen had delayed recording her Xmas speech, wonder if she'll re record it?

[quote OpheliasCrayon]@JamieLeeCurtains
I did latin (even at uni. And very badly as well I'm piss poor) and that made me laugh[/quote]
For you Latin speakers, any guesses as to how the Queen will describe her annus this time?

If they are going to seriously have another lockdown then they need to make/change plans regarding GCSE’s pretty quickly.

DS1 is supposed to have his mocks the first week back after Christmas, if we all go into lockdown again and the schools completely shut then they won’t even have the mocks to use with their CAG’s.

We are very lucky here in that we have had no cases in his school at all that I know of. I also work in a nearby primary school and we have had no cases either.

Its already been said by the Welsh government that the new strain has seeded in every part of wales.

We know the new variant has been found in at least 50 places across the country.

By the time T4 was brought in, it was already everywhere and you should be looking with as much suspicion at anyone who has has been to wales recently as anyone coming out of London.

So you think that transporting the virus north in crammed conditions perfect for transmission over several hours won’t make any difference? Of course it will.

I didn’t suggest that the new strain hadn’t reached anywhere other than the south east. Facilitating thousands of people to bring more of it north, to thousands of households, still looks extremely ill-advised.

@LovingLen

At this rate we will be lucky in tiers 1-3 if we get Christmas Day mixing

I’m not cancelling Christmas Day plans, regardless of what the government says.

@AnyFucker

I think the people from Manchester having days out for cocktails and shopping in Liverpool are a good example of folk noticing "Tier 3 accents"

Oh hell yes. Its been noticed. Its less the accents and more over hearing full conversations though. Or knowing what your colleagues have been up to over the weekend and where they live. Or what your T3 mates have posted all over social media. And the less we talk about the 'irratic' driving late on a Sunday afternoon the better.

I'm in the 'borderlands' its pissed me off for months. Its like something we aren't allowed to talk about though for fear of upsetting people or making assumptions about things.

We all know its happening and happening on a large scale. But its people 'escaping London' we are told to worry about.

Not everyone from Liverpool who went to the Lakes for half term. Nor anyone from Manchester who has been for a nice day trip to North Wales, Cheshire or the Peaks and had lunch (including meeting up with friends indoors when you could still do it but Manchester residents were not supposed to be).

If you follow the data you can see the spread out...

It is the most frustrating thing to see and hear.

Also Ikea. Just Ikea. Every fucker and his dog has been to Ikea.

I'm sure I heard this morning on TV that the government are thinking of vaccinating teenagers.

I think with the new 'education is not closed' changed from 'schools are not closed' by the dofe, we can probably expect secondary schools at the least to be closed in January. Hard to imagine what else, as in March I thought we would just be closed for 2 weeks 😒

@Castiel07

I'm sure I heard this morning on TV that the government are thinking of vaccinating teenagers.

Yes, I saw that on the news this morning. Very brief but it was said.

If school closure is on the cards, I believe it would be secondaries and colleges first before primaries.

I work in a school. I think that Gavin Williamsons dogged determination to keep the exams happening will ensure all exam years are allowed in - so years possibly 8 (common entrance) 11,13 this will allow mocks to take place .

Other than that I'm anticipating all schools online until end January.

@actiongirl1978

I work in a school. I think that Gavin Williamsons dogged determination to keep the exams happening will ensure all exam years are allowed in - so years possibly 8 (common entrance) 11,13 this will allow mocks to take place .

Other than that I'm anticipating all schools online until end January.

I agree with secondary

I think Primary it depends - I suspect maybe a week or so