Surely we’ll all be in full lockdown very soon?

[Browneyedgirl20]

With the recent travel bans and now freight banned from France, Hancock saying the new variant is ‘out of control’ etc - how long can it be until the whole UK is in lockdown? A few days maybe?

@ChristmasPerfectionist my worry is because mum isn't local and there might suddenly be restrictions on travelling outside the area. I probably am worrying unnecessarily though.

@QuieterMass

I'm starting to get worried now. I'm planning on staying with my elderly mum between Christmas eve & Sunday 27th (we're in a support bubble, both single-person households, her in tier 3 and me in tier 2) but what happens if they suddenly announce no travel outside of local area? Could there be police on the motorway stopping people so I can't get home?

Support bubbles are allowed and if you got stopped and there was no travelling, you would be sent on your way home anyway so wouldn't be stuck. They won't be wanting people stuck on the roadside. DH is picking up support bubble DS and taking him back home on 27th we are tier 2, he is tier 3

What is taking so long with the oxford vaccine. Needs to be rolled out asap.

Thanks @LovingLen that's reassuring.

@Ilovegreentomatoes

What is taking so long with the oxford vaccine. Needs to be rolled out asap.

Also needs to follow all the usual steps and checks to build confidence. Have you seen the number of people saying they don’t want a “rushed” vaccine?

Re Oxford vaccine I also imagine there’s work underway to see if it works with the new mutation. If it doesn’t then that is very bad news as the new mutation will become dominant. But I know vaccines are generally built to withstand mutation.

@MrsMiaWallis

There's no tier 5!

There will be.

@MrsMiaWallis

think the almost the whole country will be in Tier 4 for New Year

I don't.

Well, we don't have long to wait to find out.

@PrincessNutsNuts what do you see Tier 5 as being though because apart from Schools (which I think they will do as a separate decision to Tiers anywhere) there is very little place to go from Tier 4

Oxford Vaccine had further information delivered today so should be within a week. Mutation has nothing to do with it being passed - I know Pfizer/Biontech are looking at it and have said they think it will work and if it doesnt it just needs tweaked.

[quote ChristmasPerfectionist]@QuieterMass have they ever stopped people from bubbling up? Even in April/May? Surely not [/quote]
Yup. I did 7 weeks in essentially solitary confinement and then couldn’t have a bubble until July.

Just one of the appalling cruelties of lockdown.

Just reading a few local newspapers and there is some bits and pieces in there that have caught my eye:

The Manchester Evening New feed for Andy Burnham's latest press conference says:

GM's position 'is very very different to the rest of the country'

He is asked about people leaving GM to other Tier 2 places; and how many fines have been issued.

BH says they don’t have figures for people fined for doing that.

Those notices would be issued by the forces in those areas so they wouldn’t immediately know.

But places in lower tiers will be as concerned about us going there as we are about people coming here from Tier 4.

"It’s really important that as we face the prospect of this strain spreading to other areas, everyone needs to really restrict their activities and be mindful of mitigating that risk."

There are reports of a gold meeting about the North East about going into Tier 4.

Does AB know about that and is he expecting that for here.

AB says he wasn’t aware of that. He was told that there was a govt meeting scheduled for December 28.

But it could be different for different bits of the country - the NE is recording higher growth than here and Yorkshire.

So I looked into this a bit more.

Other local newspapers are saying that the London T4 review tomorrow may also include other areas having their tiers reviewed although the official review for elsewhere isn't due until 30th.

And a local newspaper in the NE is reporting the following:

Boris Johnson's Cabinet discussed plunging the whole of England into Tier 4 when it met on Saturday, ChronicleLive has learnt.

Ministers eventually decided to bring London and much of the south east into Tier 4, with residents issued a blanket "stay at home" order unless they have a good reason to go outside.

But there was a lengthy debate about whether the whole country including the North should go into Tier 4 immediately, which would mean the tougher measures were in place for Christmas. Cabinet Minister Michael Gove, the Chancellor for the Duchy of Lancaster, led calls for Tier 4 to be imposed nationwide.

Opposition to the proposal was led by Chief Whip Mark Spencer and Education Secretary Gavin Williamson.

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/cabinet-debated-putting-whole-england-19506507
Cabinet debated putting the whole of England into Tier 4 immediately
Saturday's Cabinet Meeting included debate about whether to bring the North into Tier 4

So the Gold Meeting mentioned above in the Andy Burnham Press Conference report in the MEN, could be interesting. I think we might yet be on the look out for another press conference tomorrow...

[quote Quartz2208]@PrincessNutsNuts what do you see Tier 5 as being though because apart from Schools (which I think they will do as a separate decision to Tiers anywhere) there is very little place to go from Tier 4

Oxford Vaccine had further information delivered today so should be within a week. Mutation has nothing to do with it being passed - I know Pfizer/Biontech are looking at it and have said they think it will work and if it doesnt it just needs tweaked.[/quote]
Well the National Lockdown wasn't as hard as was implemented in many other countries, and Tier 4 isn't as hard as our previous Lockdown so I there's definite scope to tighten up.

I think they need to impose harder restrictions to turn the tide, and that the numbers are going to get scary enough that they will. If not in 8 days, then in 22.

Our local Tier 4 garden centre is heaving today. And the coffee shops half a mile away in Tier 2 are packed with families who were just in the Tier 4 garden centre. (Branded bags) So Tier 4's not going to be enough is it?

We're not breaking the chains of transmission with test and trace, so it will have to be with either a short hard lockdown or about four months of softer lockdown.

If you don't do test and trace effectively there aren't any other options. They probably won't want to call it harder than before lockdown so... Tier 5.

@RedToothBrush I'll be amazed if they stick to the two week review schedule.

There's altogether far too much activity in and out of Tier 4. (And Tier 3)

I think they'll want to wait until after Christmas, but every day they wait the peak is growing.

@RedToothBrush
Other local newspapers are saying that the London T4 review tomorrow may also include other areas having their tiers reviewed although the official review for elsewhere isn't due until 30th

When Manchester was kept in T3 on 16 December, it was reported that the next review would be 23 December and so there was still a chance of T2 before Christmas (not that I think anyone would want this now!)

Election Maps has a map of the country by tier here:
electionmaps.uk/covid19-tier-map

if you scroll down below the map there is a graph highlighting each council by tier and number of cases per 100,000.

What is striking is how there is no longer any difference whatsoever between T2 and T3 councils. All T2 councils have crept up and are starting to overtake T3.

In terms of R rate and hospital beds, there's not much of an argument there either.

Hard to see an argument for T2 anywhere anymore.

And tbh, its hard to see an argument for T3 either.

The MEN reports today that there are no cases of New Covid in Greater Manchester according to officials there. This being despite there 17% cases in the NW being New Covid according to data released (and I've posted on another thread). Warrington has said the same.

The MEN also had an article about why cases in Trafford have shot up 44% in a week. The council have put it down to increased socialising.

Which again destroys the argument for T3.

But tbh, for me, if there's no New Covid in G Manchester and Warrington and they are clocking up huge increases down to socialising.... What does that say about whats happened in London?

It just seems that... yeah... something doesn't quite add up here to me.

Its most curious.

I'm also left wondering if there are no cases of New Covid in Great Manchester and Warrington (which in terms of population takes out a huge percentage of the northwest) then where the hell are those 17% of cases which are?

I wonder if I've got a tier 4 accent.

They have to repeat the first lockdown with schools and colleges closed. That has been the only thing that worked so far. And they need to do it now, not mess around with these silly tiers; it's just prolonging the agony. New Years' Eve could be a nightmare if some parts of the country are not locked down. Christmas Day mixing will be bad enough ...

With the new strain there appears to be concerns that young children may be the conduits for its spread - so expect schools to be closed until half-term with a lock down for all shops and business except food shops and a ban on all travelling expect for work which cannot be done from home. Very very bleak

@tryinghardnottocry

With the new strain there appears to be concerns that young children may be the conduits for its spread - so expect schools to be closed until half-term with a lock down for all shops and business except food shops and a ban on all travelling expect for work which cannot be done from home. Very very bleak

Scotland have just announced tighter definitions incoming for 'essential shops' to exclude hardware and garden centres...

I'm expecting BJ to give me a 4 Tier birthday cake so Def in T4 by NYE

I will do what the scientists tell us is necessary.

What I will not accept is school closures while non-essential retail and hospitality are still open. School closures should be the very last thing to happen not the first. A lot of the country is still in tiers 1-2 where pubs, restaurants, gyms, pools, non-essential shops are still open (have a scotch egg with your pint). In these areas, it would be inhumane to close all the secondaries and confine millions of children to learning on a laptop isolated in their rooms for 6-7 hours a day plus several hours more for homework on the same laptop, while the rest of the local population is inside shops, pubs, restaurants, gyms etc.

The only solution is a TOTAL LOCKDOWN - no schools no shops except food shops - no public transport except for key workers. If it is imposed until the start of the second half of the next school term then there may be an end in sight.

This constant kicking of the can down the road has to end

What I will not accept is school closures while non-essential retail and hospitality are still open. School closures should be the very last thing to happen not the first. A lot of the country is still in tiers 1-2 where pubs, restaurants, gyms, pools, non-essential shops are still open (have a scotch egg with your pint). In these areas, it would be inhumane to close all the secondaries and confine millions of children to learning on a laptop isolated in their rooms for 6-7 hours a day plus several hours more for homework on the same laptop, while the rest of the local population is inside shops, pubs, restaurants, gyms etc.

It is the children that will spread it. Schools MUST close if necessary to make up the time add on an extra 1 hour a day to the school timetable once things improve or shorten the Easter and summer holidays.

@notagoodyear

I will do what the scientists tell us is necessary.

What I will not accept is school closures while non-essential retail and hospitality are still open. School closures should be the very last thing to happen not the first. A lot of the country is still in tiers 1-2 where pubs, restaurants, gyms, pools, non-essential shops are still open (have a scotch egg with your pint). In these areas, it would be inhumane to close all the secondaries and confine millions of children to learning on a laptop isolated in their rooms for 6-7 hours a day plus several hours more for homework on the same laptop, while the rest of the local population is inside shops, pubs, restaurants, gyms etc.

Totally agree. Very few cases in schools here.