When is the London announcement due?

[bendmeoverbackwards]

Do you think the whole of London will be put into Tier 3?

Will the Christmas relaxation period of 5 days still stand?

No one is going to be able to police borough boundaries, all of London needs to be lumped together in one tier. Judging by the amount of people out on Oxford Street, coming in from elsewhere to shop and see the lights, I'm absolutely not surprised London is going in to tier 3.

As it stands we were going isolate for a week ahead of the Christmas relaxation period before seeing anyone but we may end up cancelling that (turkey crown at the ready in the freezer)

Do we think shops are a huge transmission chain? People in masks, not in there for that long, nobody close to one person talking?

I think pubs and restaurants are as you are in there without masks for one hour plus.

I think they have (hopefully l!) realised that announcing this on Wednesday with it coming in to effect at midnight on Friday is a really bad idea. Lots of nights for people to go crazy in the pubs.
Monday with it coming in to effect tomorrow is sensible.

Also wondering about Home Counties. Bedfordshire supposed to be bad I think.

But the problem is putting London into tier three and keeping the shops open won't stop people coming in from outside.

In response to London's Oxford Street and Regent Street being rammed with shoppers on Boxing day, yes I agree but London comprises far more than that and many areas are very free from people: The City, The Strand, just off piste to the West End Squares, The Mall and the parks, Kings Road, Fulham Road all are usually free flowing.

@kittensarecute - hang in there. x

@ProfessionalWeirdo You do realise that’s what happened in Essex even before lockdown 2? Those of those that live in the rural North of the county have been lumped in with the South which is basically an extension of London. We will most likely be going up to tier 3 despite still having lower than national average numbers. Please stop making this a North South issue because lots of people have been treated unfairly.

@Delatron

Also wondering about Home Counties. Bedfordshire supposed to be bad I think.

Its not the numbers in the home counties thats bad. Its the % increase thats bad:

Hertfordshire +31.1%
Bracknell Forest +92.9%
Wokingham +44.6%
Reading +37.6%
Buckinghamshire +33.2%
Bedford +42.6%
Oxfordshire +34.6%
West Berkshire +90.2%
East Sussex +72.2%
Essex +61.4%
Central Bedfordshire +100%

Some of these counties have low case numbers. But its the case increase thats the troubling thing.

What happened in the north was when these increases hit above 30% thats when problems kicked in and case numbers started to spiral out of control very quickly. It seems to be following a similar pattern in the South East in general - not just London itself. There are few London boroughs which are still below a +30% in the last 7 days.

So yeah thats the number you should be keeping an eye on in terms of whether T3 is likely. If you escape it this week, the chances are if those numbers stay at that rate you'll be T3 before the New Year is in (assuming the next scheduled review is still a fortnight Wednesday after the one this week).

[quote BunsyGirl]@ProfessionalWeirdo You do realise that’s what happened in Essex even before lockdown 2? Those of those that live in the rural North of the county have been lumped in with the South which is basically an extension of London. We will most likely be going up to tier 3 despite still having lower than national average numbers. Please stop making this a North South issue because lots of people have been treated unfairly.[/quote]
If you say so. I think thats going to ring a little hollow with Tier 3 vets.

I'm in Bedfordshire, I think we are headed into tier 3 too. Pretty much all schools closed in our town due to outbreaks

I guess tier 3 in London will come in to effect from either tomorrow or Wednesday.
It was inevitable really.

[quote BunsyGirl]@ProfessionalWeirdo You do realise that’s what happened in Essex even before lockdown 2? Those of those that live in the rural North of the county have been lumped in with the South which is basically an extension of London. We will most likely be going up to tier 3 despite still having lower than national average numbers. Please stop making this a North South issue because lots of people have been treated unfairly.[/quote]
Essex (which is also where I live, and also in a part with cases well below national average) is a very weird case because our council, uniquely, actively asked for us to go into tier 2 before the second lockdown. I didn't think it was a good decision at the time and it looks even worse with hindsight; it only actually came into force for a couple of weeks so made little difference but has created a long-lasting idea among many residents that we were unnecessarily screwed over because the council wanted more money, which has undermined compliance and public trust in the measures for little gain. But I don't think you can really place Essex within a national north-south pattern (which I do think is there) because of this oddity.

Incidentally, as a north Essex resident I'm finding it really uncomfortable to see all the 'fuck Basildon/it's because Basildon can't sort itself out' stuff on social media and I've heard a bit in real life; there's the same issue in London with East London. It's richer bits blaming poorer bits and the class dynamics are both obvious and unpleasant.

I’m in West Berkshire & seeing that figure has alarmed me.
I’ve been checking the cases & a few weeks ago we were always half the national average but in the last week we have really accelerated in our case numbers

Many, many London families leave London at Christmas - perhaps not so much this year.

Well off families leave. Most stay put.

Baz Bamigboye is reporting that London theatres are going to be made to close after tomorrow night's performances.

I've never known him to be wrong. I'm incredibly sad for all those people and creatives who have worked so hard to make theatre safe, some only re-opened on Saturday. I attended two performances in October (travelled from the North Midlands) and never felt safer.

Very sad.

Mixing will still happen at Christmas I can appreciate people who are suffering with their mental health have been hounding out for this.I am in ter3 and feel for all the bisness that have been affected.what they do in London seems to impact the rest of England I think more schools will close in tear3 areas and I think all England will be put in tear3 because what happens in London affects the rest of England.

[quote BunsyGirl]@ProfessionalWeirdo You do realise that’s what happened in Essex even before lockdown 2? Those of those that live in the rural North of the county have been lumped in with the South which is basically an extension of London. We will most likely be going up to tier 3 despite still having lower than national average numbers. Please stop making this a North South issue because lots of people have been treated unfairly.[/quote]
@BunsyGirl - It happened here too. At the end of July, extra restrictions (equivalent to current Tier 3) were imposed on parts of West Yorkshire, parts of East Lancashire, and the whole of Greater Manchester, with only a few hours' notice. Nobody dared say this out loud at the time, but it does seem a little too convenient that this was immediately before the Eid weekend (when Muslims traditionally celebrate the end of Ramadan), and those areas all have high Muslim populations...

Those restrictions have never been revoked. So we've been in Tier 3 (or equivalent) for almost five months.

I am so sorry for people who have lost loved ones not being able to see them and giving them the send of they deserve. This is the worst thing.

@Comefromaway

Baz Bamigboye is reporting that London theatres are going to be made to close after tomorrow night's performances.

I've never known him to be wrong. I'm incredibly sad for all those people and creatives who have worked so hard to make theatre safe, some only re-opened on Saturday. I attended two performances in October (travelled from the North Midlands) and never felt safer.

Very sad.

It’s always theatre that makes me choke up. Personal thing, I know.

I thought Londoners going away at Xmas was referring to people staying with rellies elsewhere, not the posh folk going on holiday.

I know someone who normally packs six into her lounge at Xmas, it’s a two bed house in Bedfordshire, which I imagine which also be tier 3.

It’s that whole #Duvetknowitschristmas - hope I’ve got that right.

Masks need to be worn in classrooms, if we want them to stay open

I do think the northern chip on the shoulder is misplaced in this instance, though very justified in economic and political terms . We have all been shafted by the governments incompetence. If they had an effective test track and quarantine strategy and set rules that were consistent and made sense according to the science and that everyone followed, as they did at the start of the first lockdown, none of us would be in this situation. Covid went unchecked through London in March, one study put the number of Londoners with antibodies at 20%, (and if course immunity is still not understood so could be higher) and hospitals and ICUs were at capacity. More than half my neighbours had a Covid like illness in their household in March, no testing of course.

Since then they have continued to do too little too late. The high infection rates in East London have been an issue for weeks but MPs don’t live in “London”, they live in a pocket of west London. It is only now that we have seen Central London heaving with shoppers and people out on the Christmas lash and the rates creeping up across the capital that we are seeing action.

Of course they should not have ended the first lockdown until rates were consistently low across the country but the government doing too little too late has consistently harmed all of us since January when it was obvious to lots of other countries that they needed to initiate a response. The reason that rates are going through the roof in London but hospital cases are not is because they are keeping schools open and school children are catching it, and that is true of the whole country. Closing them before Christmas is would surely be a no brainer but no.

I have seen my octogenarian parents (who also had Covid in March) up in tier 2 north once since last Christmas. We had thought we would isolate for two weeks and then visit (antibodies still being uncertain though we still had them as of two weeks ago) but the governments stupid window has put pay to that. Good luck anyone trying to get up the motorways on 23/24 and down on 27. We will now wait until they are vaccinated.

Meanwhile family and friends in Melbourne. Auckland and Hong Kong get their Christmas.....

A lot of people I know leave London at Xmas, including me. But then there are also lots of people who grew up here so don't need to. It's certainly not deserted over Xmas.

They really REALLY need to cancel the Xmas free-for-all, but I know they won't. Utter madness

(And to clarify that's people going to visit family, not skiing in the Alps!)

(And, I'm not going anywhere this year)

@tinseltinseleverywhere

A lot of people I know leave London at Xmas, including me. But then there are also lots of people who grew up here so don't need to. It's certainly not deserted over Xmas.

They really REALLY need to cancel the Xmas free-for-all, but I know they won't. Utter madness

There isn’t a free for all over Xmas.

@AcornAutumn ok so free for all is an exaggeration, but three social bubbles being allowed to congregate inside for 5 days is just ridiculous.