Wondering when the focus will shift from deaths to long term effects

[PuzzledObserver]

JVT is on record as saying that 99% of Covid deaths have been among people who are in phase 1 of the vaccination rollout. I don't mean the ones at the top of the list, I mean all over 50's plus younger people who are clinically vulnerable.

That's why they are in phase 1 - they are much more likely to die than the people who aren't.

So, if we are successful in getting everyone in that group who wants to be vaccinated, vaccinated by Easter... then by early May, the death rate will have plunged. Fabulous news.

I wonder then if Long Covid among younger people will become more visible and receive more coverage. I have found it much more difficult to get statistics on that than on deaths. We have had a fairly clear picture from the start of the kind of people at more risk of dying from Covid. Relatively little about what increases your risk of Long Covid.

I wonder if increased coverage of Long Covid will be the thing which persuades some of the unsure people that it would be a good idea for them to get vaccinated after all.

My partner has it. 8 months later he is now classed as severely disabled. He used to cycle an hour to and from work daily, our life was centred around sports and extreme sports. He is so broken its unreal. I wish I could show every covid denying anti vaxxer how he lives now compared to life before. People have NO IDEA how bad long covid can be. It's ruined our lives.

I saw the programme on channel 4 last night following 4 people with covid. One poor guy was so badly disabled when he left hospital it was untrue. He spent nearly 60 days in icu, then months on a general ward.

Was maybe in his 50s.

Went home in a wheelchair, his wife needed a hoist and transfer equipment installing in the house. He seemed quite mentally affected as well. Very confused. The doctors said he had long term delirium and they weren’t sure how much cognitive ability he’d regain.

Long covid appears to be a combination of symptoms, so I think they need to define it first.

@Callcat

My partner has it. 8 months later he is now classed as severely disabled. He used to cycle an hour to and from work daily, our life was centred around sports and extreme sports. He is so broken its unreal. I wish I could show every covid denying anti vaxxer how he lives now compared to life before. People have NO IDEA how bad long covid can be. It's ruined our lives.

CallCat,

That’s awful to hear, I’m so sorry. I honestly think I’m more scared of this than dying. How old is your partner? My dh is 58yo and though fit I’m worried that he might catch it.

I agree with you in principle OP. But I also believe that while we don't know enough about the long term impact of Covid, we also know next to nothing about the long term side effects of the vaccine.

I am not an antivaxer by any stretch of the imagination. And I'm not particularly bothered about covid. But even I am concerned about how quickly the covid vaccines have been turned around.

Completely agree with this. I’m wondering what happens when they vaccine all the 50+ people, will they open up society again and it’ll start spreading like wildfire but it’s ok cos not many people under 50 die? I’m under 50 so won’t get the vaccine but I really don’t want long covid.

it’ll start spreading like wildfire but it’s ok cos not many people under 50 die?

Yes, that's the underpinning theory of the Great Barrington declarations n and all, those who say 'protect the vulnerable and let the rest of us get on with it

@JacobReesMogadishu

I saw the programme on channel 4 last night following 4 people with covid. One poor guy was so badly disabled when he left hospital it was untrue. He spent nearly 60 days in icu, then months on a general ward.

Was maybe in his 50s.

Went home in a wheelchair, his wife needed a hoist and transfer equipment installing in the house. He seemed quite mentally affected as well. Very confused. The doctors said he had long term delirium and they weren’t sure how much cognitive ability he’d regain.

That programme was very sad and moving. Unfortunately, it’s not unique to Covid. ICU leaves long term damage to many. Fortunately, people can and do make improvements so fingers crossed for all those shown. Very sad though, life changing.

A lot will depend on when the irresponsible media choose to switch and how much they make of it - but first we have to get through their "the vaccine killed my granny!!!" hyperbole

And I'm fully expecting that to consume the headlines, the instant a couple of very aged folk die within weeks of having it (and of something completely unrelated)

@callcat

@Porgy I agree with you in principle OP. But I also believe that while we don't know enough about the long term impact of Covid, we also know next to nothing about the long term side effects of the vaccine.

We don’t know enough about the long term impact of Covid, except that something like 0.5% of people who have symptomatic Covid are still struggling months later.

Whereas the vaccine.... how many thousands received it in the trials? Several tens of thousands for the Pfizer one, I think. And what percentage of them suffered serious adverse events? Zero, I believe. So, if it does emerge that there are serious adverse effects from any of the Covid vaccines, they will be extremely rare.

Quite a lot of people have pointed to the narcolepsy from the Pandemrix swine flu vaccine as an example of what can go wrong. 1 in 52,000, was it, developed narcolepsy. Now let’s imagine that the Covid vaccine is similar. We vaccinate 50 million people with it, and how many suffer something bad?

1,000. That’s right - 1,000.

Whereas Covid has already killed 60,000 and left more than that with possibly permanent damage. Which is the greater risk?

I've been wondering this too OP. I have ME after getting a virus 3 years ago. My life is almost unrecognizable to me now. The amount of people who may end up disabled and unable to work is likely to be far greater than the deaths

Very interesting thread OP. In some ways, I'm more concerned about long covid than dying from covid. I'm also a bit worried that once the first phase of vaccination is over, society will open up too much and there will be lots of people in the 40 to 50 age bracket that get ill, maybe seriously, and end up with long covid.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-54569346

The amazingly brave lady in this article probably doesn't "technically" have long Covid but it's certainly a long term consequence of a Covid infection...

Long covid really is dismissed by a lot of people. I didn’t know anyone who had it until one of my work colleagues (male, 40 year) got covid two months ago. He was only off work due to fever for a few days and we assumed he’d fully recovered within two weeks.

We spoke yesterday and he confided that he’s been really struggling for while and feeling incredibly low due to continued fatigue and breathlessness. Not able to do basic exercise at all. Had to cancel our team 10am meeting this morning due to his symptoms.

Like I said, healthy 40 year old with no conditions. It’s been two months and hopefully it won’t last months longer, but who knows. It’s affecting his productivity at his job and mental/ physical health.

The 35-50 year age bracket is the concerning one, especially hints in the past that they won’t be vaccinated at all.

OP - 60,000 people haven’t died of Covid, but have died and Covid is mentioned on their death certificate..that’s a big difference.

Stop being all BBC about it.

@MaisieMolly

Completely agree with this. I’m wondering what happens when they vaccine all the 50+ people, will they open up society again and it’ll start spreading like wildfire but it’s ok cos not many people under 50 die? I’m under 50 so won’t get the vaccine but I really don’t want long covid.

It'll be very quickly the change to younger people from 'don't kill Granny' to 'younger people need to get out and save the economy, get back to the office'.

A lot of people under 50 will want to stay socially distanced until they've had the vaccine.

A lot of people under 50 will want to stay socially distanced until they've had the vaccine.

I agree, and I’ll be one of them. I hope we are all still in the vaccination plan. After all, it wasn’t that long ago that Matt Hancock declared that everyone over the age of 18 who wanted a vaccine should be able to have one by Easter time, but I’ve noticed that he appears to have been saying slightly different things since. Remember that draft NHS plan that got leaked? Of course I completely agree that the vulnerable should get it first, absolutely no problem with that, but I hope those of us in the next age bracket don’t get forgotten.

I also worry about awkward situations where some people will want to drop their guard after the first phase of vaccination (and no longer socially distance), and then those of us who don’t want to do that will be made to feel difficult or weird. I have seen enough behaviour in the school playground (from parents) to suggest that there are probably going to be some rather difficult conversations ahead!

People are welcome to stay in it socially distanced if they want to. However it might be a long time until the under 50s get the vaccine as the rest of the worlds vulnerable need vaccinating first. The majority of people aren’t going to want to be restricted until that happens, and the government have said we won’t need to as it’s personal responsibility instead of restrictions once the priority groups have been vaccinated.

@mrsknottschicken

Thankfully i'll be wfh for a while yet and don't need to engage in anything that's not socially distanced. I go to the shop at times when it'll be quiet etc. Don't use public transport. Won't be going to pubs.

I think the problem will be, the Johnson promise of "back to normal by Easter" so Easter will come and the distancing measures will still be there, as the vaccine roll out will be ongoing. My parents are in their 60s, will they have even had the vaccine by Easter. Maybe, maybe not. I'm sure it won't have reached me.

I'm just hoping it's not a case of 'right, now the most vulnerable are vaccinated everyone back to packed out offices and morning commutes'.

@Racoonworld

People are welcome to stay in it socially distanced if they want to. However it might be a long time until the under 50s get the vaccine as the rest of the worlds vulnerable need vaccinating first. The majority of people aren’t going to want to be restricted until that happens, and the government have said we won’t need to as it’s personal responsibility instead of restrictions once the priority groups have been vaccinated.

But will someone in their 30s or 40s have the option to socially distance?

It's okay giving people the option to pack out pubs, football matches or concerts - they're all optional - but if we're having to go back to open plan offices and full tube carriages with people who've been crammed into concerts and sporting events all weekend then that's different.

@User158340 some people may not have the option but some don’t now either. People will just have to get used to the idea that the virus isn’t going away (as everyone has said it’s now endemic in society) and not everyone will be vaccinated soon or at all. The government will open everything up after the priority groups are vaccinated, they have said they will, they need the economy open, there’s no way restrictions laws will be passed as they had enough trouble this time, and most people won’t stick to restrictions once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated.

[quote Racoonworld]@User158340 some people may not have the option but some don’t now either. People will just have to get used to the idea that the virus isn’t going away (as everyone has said it’s now endemic in society) and not everyone will be vaccinated soon or at all. The government will open everything up after the priority groups are vaccinated, they have said they will, they need the economy open, there’s no way restrictions laws will be passed as they had enough trouble this time, and most people won’t stick to restrictions once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated.[/quote]
I think the difference now is all the social distancing and restrictions somewhat contain the spread. Your workplace should have distancing measures in place, unless you're in a workplace where you need a lot of PPE.

Imagine everyone crammed onto trains, tubes and buses every day and all concerts, football matches and pubs packed out. The virus will spread like wildfire and the working population will fall ill. Not just with Covid but due to lowered immune systems.

There needs to be a gradual, phased return to normality next year. The working population all being ill won't help the economy.

@User158340 it probably will be a phased return to normality. I can’t imagine there will be loads of restrictions one day and nothing the next. But we will be back to normal before the under 50s get it almost certainly. It will probably be a gradual release of restriction from March onwards with back to normal late spring.

@Racoonworld

Agree, but i've made the point of the Easter timeframe from government, at least initially, being unrealistic for 'back to normal'. Good Friday is April 1st. That's around the time you'll see the start of the gradual phasing of restrictions, not a return to normality.

My Dd got shingles when she was 14yo, no health issues prior to that and really never recovered with a miriad of ongoing symptoms.

She’s now been diagnosed with various autoimmune stuff....coeliac, eds, pots, fibromyalgia. I’m convinced it all stemmed from the shingles, it was like a switch was flicked. She struggles on a daily basis, fatigue, brain fog, pain. She’s waiting for a cardiology appt now as they think her heart may be affected.

It’s scary to think that you can be permanently damaged by something like this.