Wondering when the focus will shift from deaths to long term effects

[PuzzledObserver]

JVT is on record as saying that 99% of Covid deaths have been among people who are in phase 1 of the vaccination rollout. I don't mean the ones at the top of the list, I mean all over 50's plus younger people who are clinically vulnerable.

That's why they are in phase 1 - they are much more likely to die than the people who aren't.

So, if we are successful in getting everyone in that group who wants to be vaccinated, vaccinated by Easter... then by early May, the death rate will have plunged. Fabulous news.

I wonder then if Long Covid among younger people will become more visible and receive more coverage. I have found it much more difficult to get statistics on that than on deaths. We have had a fairly clear picture from the start of the kind of people at more risk of dying from Covid. Relatively little about what increases your risk of Long Covid.

I wonder if increased coverage of Long Covid will be the thing which persuades some of the unsure people that it would be a good idea for them to get vaccinated after all.

Long term post viral conditions have rarely been taken very seriously. If that it becomes the case for those who have suffered as a result of covid I will be surprised but pleased

I’m sure they will vaccinate the under 50s too. Otherwise, why on earth would they have ordered so many doses? I think I’m right in saying that they’ve ordered more than enough to vaccinate the whole population, assuming they all work. I agree with a PP and I think the Oxford vaccine will be the one that really enables the mass rollout.

The “How to vaccinate the world” podcast is very good. There was an expert on there who said he felt encouraged by all of the vaccines (not just Pfizer/Moderna/Oxford.

I really feel for all those who have had, or still have, long covid.

I feel like I will never ever be the same again. My symptoms started on the 2nd May. Covid progressed quickly to glandular fever and then hospitalisation with a kidney infection. It's a good day now when I can get out of bed and accompany my husband on the school run. My children have lost their Mum, to be honest. I'm not fit for much.

@Bonsai49

My worry is that there are many young people out there who think they had covid in the early days - were not tested , had long standing symptoms but have returned to some kind of normal even if it’s not the normal they used to have . I worry that they may have damage lurking undetected that could cause them issues in years to come . At least if they knew they could plan for that future

Yes. Especially with the talk of cardiac damage. People aren’t getting seen for stuff in hospitals, my Dd has been waiting over 6 months for a cardiology referral not related to covid. Her rheumatologist thinks she has valve damage and the blood isn’t flowing properly, she has terrible chest pain at times.

If she can’t get seen when she has bad symptoms what’s the chance of someone with long covid who’s a bit breathless and knackered having a cardiac screen in the near future? People can be fairly ok with cardiac issues until suddenly they’re very much not ok.

It’s so fucking depressing.

To add, I'm 36, 35 when I first became ill.

for those sharing their experiences, of long covid and other conditions.

With long covid I hope there is an improvement some time soon for you.

It says in news Scotland are expecting to vaccinate healthy under 50s by summer and to be patient

@Ninbuscl

It says in news Scotland are expecting to vaccinate healthy under 50s by summer and to be patient

That would be bloody brilliant, well done Nicola Sturgeon. I wonder of England will get it done as soon?

Not that I need worry for myself, because I’m over 50 and clinically vulnerable, so I’ll be getting it ahead of the healthy over 60’s.

That would be bloody brilliant, well done Nicola Sturgeon. I wonder of England will get it done as soon?

What's she done to actually make it happen?
I'd think it Boris you should be thanking.

Well seeing as it’s the UK that have bought vaccines, not Scotland individually, and they are being shared put to countries based on population numbers, Scotland will only be able to go that if England do too.

@Racoonworld

Well seeing as it’s the UK that have bought vaccines, not Scotland individually, and they are being shared put to countries based on population numbers, Scotland will only be able to go that if England do too.

I'd agree with that.

Xenophobic race to the bottom as always.

UK Government acquired the stocks. Devolved governments handling the rollout, I thought.

@Ninbuscl
This thread completely articulates my concerns. This vaccine rollout is almost more worrying for me than it is something to celebrate. Great that my parents will get vaccine, they will be off travelling again and out and about. But I will be still scared to catch virus cos if long Covid. And once restrictions are lifted it will just spread through the younger population. Lots of people I know seem to be fairly dismissive of it all and still allowing kids to go to activities, afternoons out at trampoline parks etc. So I think a lot of people will quickly go back to socialising if they are allowed. Then the virus will spread. And everyone in their 40s will be at risk of long Covid.

I've been feeling a bit like you too. Throughout this I've been worried of post viral impacts should I get Covid. I've had two episodes of a 'post-viral' condition, the second one was worse and longer-lasting than the first. Thankfully, unlike many people, I got back to just about pre-flu normal but it took about 2 years to get there. I think I would be susceptible to it again.

@PuzzledObserver

UK Government acquired the stocks. Devolved governments handling the rollout, I thought.

Devolved governments are handling the rollouts, but with the stocks shared out equally in proportion to population for each country. What they then do with their share is up to them but Scotland won’t get enough for their entire population until England, Wales and NI also do.

I didn’t mean that Scotland were ahead of the other countries just pleased they were voicing their intention to vaccinate everyone. If Scotland are thinking this way then the other countries hopefully are too at some point.

I am actually a little concerned about the prospect of getting vaccine which will have to be repeated every year (potentially) and the impact of that on the immune system long term. Part of my wonders if Covid once when I am relatively young could give life long protection or at least some protection against future serious illness is better from a long term point of view. Although these are questions which I don’t think any one can answer just now as Covid just hasn’t been around long enough. And on balance I think I would rather take my chances with the vaccine than with Covid infection.

@Ninbuscl I am actually a little concerned about the prospect of getting vaccine which will have to be repeated every year (potentially) and the impact of that on the immune system long term.

My hunch is that you don’t need to worry about that.

When I try to explain that, I realise I am working on the assumption that if you encounter the pathogen after you have acquired immunity, the act of fighting it off also refreshes your immune system’s memory of the virus, hence extending your immunity. Is that a thing, does anyone know?

What I mean, I think, is that if immunity from a single exposure wanes after 2 years (for the sake of argument) but you could be exposed to the virus annually, your immunity would be topped up before it had a chance to expire. But you can’t be sure that you will be exposed to the virus in the world, so a booster is the way to go.

I realise I am speculating on how the immune system works, I could be way off base.

£20 million allocated to research on long covid by NIHR.
That isn't the only recent NHS or UKRC-funded call for grant applications, but it is probably the biggest call so far focused on mild cases that turn into Long Covid.
They advertised on 12 November, deadline 9 December. They want to start dishing out the money in early 2021 (will evaluate & notify everyone by end January 2021), which means very little time for grant prep or assessment, thus all the funds will almost certainly go to 'top' universities who have more spare people to quickly prepare the grant bid. The evaluators will mostly decide what grant to award based on institution reputation.

So basically Imperial, Oxford, Cambridge, possibly KCL or UCL - will get the money. I'm sometimes astonished that anyone at these institutions has remaining capacity to work on yet more covid stuff.

There are other existing UK-gov ongoing funded projects on people who were severely ill with COVID & still dealing with sequelae. Right now the thinking is that LC probably should be divided into several different fairly distinct syndromes that each need their own specific treatment pathway.

When Big Pharma figures out a profitable angle, like development of steroids that deal with chronic inflammation, then even more money will be made available to research LC.

@kindnesscrusader I'm so sorry you are suffering so much. I hope you start to improve soon 💐

@Biscoff2020

I don't think the economic effects of people suffering from long covid would be that great for the government to do anything about offering vaccination to under 50s- I guess the logistics/cost of providing more vaccines would be much higher. In terms of work, if people don't want to commute/go to the office then there will be a long queue of people willing to take their places. Hundreds of thousands of previously healthy people are going to have their lives ruined from long covid though once restrictions are lifted and SD ends, it's very sad and worrying.

Just looking at it from a cold, hard financial/economic point of view, how would the cost of supporting hundreds of thousands of people with Long Covid be less than vaccinating them?