Wondering when the focus will shift from deaths to long term effects

[PuzzledObserver]

JVT is on record as saying that 99% of Covid deaths have been among people who are in phase 1 of the vaccination rollout. I don't mean the ones at the top of the list, I mean all over 50's plus younger people who are clinically vulnerable.

That's why they are in phase 1 - they are much more likely to die than the people who aren't.

So, if we are successful in getting everyone in that group who wants to be vaccinated, vaccinated by Easter... then by early May, the death rate will have plunged. Fabulous news.

I wonder then if Long Covid among younger people will become more visible and receive more coverage. I have found it much more difficult to get statistics on that than on deaths. We have had a fairly clear picture from the start of the kind of people at more risk of dying from Covid. Relatively little about what increases your risk of Long Covid.

I wonder if increased coverage of Long Covid will be the thing which persuades some of the unsure people that it would be a good idea for them to get vaccinated after all.

@User158340 a gradual easing of restrictions is a return to normality though. Every restriction eased is a step closer. It will be a lot quicker than some people think too, especially as most people (everyone I know for example, young and old) will not be sticking to social distancing once the vaccine has been given to those first groups.

@JacobReesMogadishu

My Dd got shingles when she was 14yo, no health issues prior to that and really never recovered with a miriad of ongoing symptoms.

She’s now been diagnosed with various autoimmune stuff....coeliac, eds, pots, fibromyalgia. I’m convinced it all stemmed from the shingles, it was like a switch was flicked. She struggles on a daily basis, fatigue, brain fog, pain. She’s waiting for a cardiology appt now as they think her heart may be affected.

It’s scary to think that you can be permanently damaged by something like this.

I'm sorry to hear about your DD. One thing in your post stood out for me though. Ehlers Danlos or EDS would not be caused by shingles. It is a genetic disease. The shingles may well have caused her condition to flare, or exacerbated the EDS, but she would always have had it. I have EDS. I also have fibromyalgia, brain fog etc. All the symptoms you describe her as having are part and parcel of Ehlers Danlos, including the cardiac involvement. It sounds to me as though this is her primary disorder, and it might be really worthwhile investigating that. I would also suggest that she may need genetic testing to determine which subtype of EDS she has, as some are far more serious than others.

Thanks @Wakeupalready they said they think it’s hypermobile Eds....at least that’s what she said because I wasn’t allowed in the appt because of covid. Rheumatologist just gave her the diagnosis and discharged her, said there’s no treatment, stop dancing. But did tell GP to refer her to cardiology....
She’s still waiting for that!

@Bushola

OP - 60,000 people haven’t died of Covid, but have died and Covid is mentioned on their death certificate..that’s a big difference.

Stop being all BBC about it.

And when it is mentioned on the death certificate it's recorded as the underlying cause of death around 90% of the time (ONS figures).

Most parents of secondary school age children, along with many staff in schools are aged 35-50 and we don't have the luxury of socially distancing from children. It is brought into the home. My sons' schools are struggling with cases - three in one form alone currently, along with all the cases in other years.

My son caught Covid at school and I did everything I could to try to stem the spread (thankfully we have not caught it yet after 14 days, the other 3 of us).
I'm 47, female and BMI 30. I gather this is a good recipe for long Covid. I want to try to avoid this, I'm so careful elsewhere but school is the weak link. My other son may well bring it home soon as there are multiple cases there each week, including his class, where several students have had positive family members (and some children have still gone into school).

I work in education and sadly many colleagues are suffering. One in hospital, two with clots on lungs, one who's had Covid twice and another in hospital having treatment too.

@JacobReesMogadishu .
Bugger. I had a suspicion, sorry I was right.
That's the kind I have, and that is the sole EDS sub type that does not have a gene test yet. But, if you have to have EDS - I guess this is possibly the least worst version to get if you look at it like that - which I do.

I've done the cardiologist route , as this sub type can get heart involvement as well, so she should definitely keep chasing that down.

It is true that there is no cure, but physical therapy( especially Pilates - which if your daughter is a dancer, she should be familiar with) helps, hydrotherapy, osteopathy, physiotherapy,diet and some medications for pain and sleep improve your quality of life.
It takes time to work out what is best for you, and I'd advise her to educate herself on hEDS as much as possible , as she will need to become her own advocate.
I think the UK is slightly better in acknowledging EDS as a condition than where I am in Australia, but there is a considerable dearth of knowledge about it in the wider medical community. The more she knows about it herself, the better.

I wish her the best, it's not the easiest path.

New diagnoses of Type 1 diabetes in children have doubled since April. Ds2 used to be the only kid in his year with it and now there are 4 of them.
There’s so much that we don’t know yet.

I don't know if I had Covid before Christmas but I had the symptoms. In February I got shingles, second time in my life and I'm 48. I have not fully recovered from last year, some days I feel fine others I struggle to get out of bed, some days I feel I'm coming down with flu then it disappears as quick as it came. My husband is the same. If it's mild long covid then it's crap.

The emphasis will shift once the first vaccines are done and the death rate drops. So before Easter.

Boris has played a game to keep people hoping. Hope for the future. But I don't think SD will disappear until the majority of adults (18+) are vaccinated.

The vaccines are here, now they can start looking at treatments for long covid .

I’m not a long covid denier but people seem incredibly naive to the fact ANY nasty virus can leave you with long term health issues. I had glandular fever as a teen and it knocked me for 6 for a year. The first 3 moths, I couldn’t get out of bed. Then gradually I returned to school but was lethargic & not well at all really. I remember distinctly going back to school in September a year later & the sudden realisation I felt normal! I’ve also had bad flu that landed me in hospital for a week, again, months of recovery. A had a severe kidney infection with another week in hospital. A good 3 months before I stopped feeling shitty. One kidney has decreased function from it.. 😩

But I had all these illnesses between ages 15-30 & all in all, I bounced back. I’m not still a wreck on the sofa. Even with the side effects of glandular fever, I dragged myself into school. I was back at work two weeks after my hospital admissions for flu & kidney infection. I probably wasn’t at my best, but you get on with these things when you are young..

I have a feeling long covid is going to be an issue of the middle aged predominantly! Those not eligible for the vaccine but not in the below 35 bracket who are still often child free, able to rest, more likely to bounce back & more likely to feel like they don’t want to miss out on socialising, so push through. Not all, obviously be exceptions but ..

The long-term effects of a lot of illnesses are totally downplayed, and I’m worried that will happen with Covid as well.

For example, food poisoning triggers IBS in quite a large number of people who have it. In some cases, it actually progresses to being an autoimmune disease. And once someone has an autoimmune condition, they are more likely to develop further autoimmune conditions.

But treatment and follow up for food poisoning is still pretty much “plenty of fluids, rest a bit, back on your feet in a few days”. It’s starting to change as it’s better understood, but that’s slow.

Covid is going to cast a long, long shadow.

I think the difference with Covid is the high percentage of people who seem to end up with long covid.
We've not had government bang on that covid mainly affects the elderly for a while. They are obviously still very concerned about the students carrying it home.

We have. That’s why the elderly are being immunised. Do we know what percentage per 100,000 have long Covid?

I’m also interested to hear, all the time, about very very fit people getting Covid badly. It seems that if you have pushed your body into extreme running or other sports, you might be less healthy in other ways and don’t fight this virus as well as one would suppose. Again it’s hearsay but where is the data? Does anyone look at lifestyle ? Both sedentary and extreme and see where all risks might lie?

Of the 3 women I know off with long covid all took it in March. 1 was extremely fit fitness instructor, the other 2 were both reasonably fit, healthy BMI, but with asthma / diabetes.

I'm not sure what the percentage of people is but it seems very high to me. But I also guess they don't actually know what the percentage is because back in March few people were being tested.

Thanks for starting this thread OP. I'm quite worried about long Covid, as I'm in a people facing role and have young children. I'm worried about being left not able to look after them. I'm just straddling the at risk age group also.
My hope is that spread will reduce in the community after vaccine is deployed.

I contracted coronavirus in March. I'm 53. I've been suffering from long Covid. The extreme fatigue started to lift in August. Before that after a zoom meeting I had to crawl back to bed. I wanted to sleep continuously. The chest pain is still there and I'm still coughing phlegm. I presume I have some damage but because my x ray is clear the gp is dismissive. It's been a long journey.

One thing to bear in mind is research funding - the government is starting to put money into long covid research which will then provide data, which will then filter to news.

Long covid is going to cost a great deal, financially and in terms of affected lives, I'm so annoyed the government have been so weak during this pandemic - by tolerating and at times encouraging high infection rates (EOTHO and Christmas virus-spreading bubbles for example) they've ensured we will have more long covid sufferers.

I’m not a long covid denier but people seem incredibly naive to the fact ANY nasty virus can leave you with long term health issues.

The key thing to remember is viral experts and medical doctors tell us clearly that covid is worse in terms of both prevalence and severity of long term impacts.

Lots of people are not (long) covid deniers, but they are minimising and underplaying by making false comparisons.

Very interesting. I didn't see the programme. I'll try and find it on catch up.

I agree that “long covid” appears to be very similar if not the same to the after effects of many serious illnesses. I think possibly people are describing fairly common symptoms and trying to bundle them into a syndrome. I’m not sure why that’s helpful?

@5zeds

I agree that “long covid” appears to be very similar if not the same to the after effects of many serious illnesses. I think possibly people are describing fairly common symptoms and trying to bundle them into a syndrome. I’m not sure why that’s helpful?

This is not the view of medical experts. They have identified this syndrome.

It's important to approach these things scientifically, which means listening to those with real expertise.

It is a worry. I don't have long covid, however DP and I do still get out of breath easily, and I play a brass instrument and struggle far more than I ever have before.

We had it in April, and this is still the case. I also believe I am much tireder, though this could just be my lack of routine with the way things are.

There was a news piece doing the rounds a while ago saying that long Covid appeared to be four separate syndromes affecting different body syndromes. Do other viruses leave people with scarring on their lungs and heart muscles? Or cause blood clots, resulting in increased risk for heart attack or stroke?

I have searched high and low for prevalence figures for post-viral syndrome from other viruses. I can’t find numbers, only “rare”. Long Covid appears to be a low percentage, as in, most people don’t get it. But it is much more common than “rare” in medical speak.

The worrying thing is of the 3 ladies I know with it, none are fit enough to return to work and yet only one was bad enough to be hospitalized in the first place.

That's not normal, I think I've only ever came across a couple of other people in my lifetime with any sort of post viral illness or disability.

I think other conditions DO leave long term damage. I don’t think that’s a new idea at all. Think of the more obvious ones from recent history like TB or polio?