Wondering when the focus will shift from deaths to long term effects

[PuzzledObserver]

JVT is on record as saying that 99% of Covid deaths have been among people who are in phase 1 of the vaccination rollout. I don't mean the ones at the top of the list, I mean all over 50's plus younger people who are clinically vulnerable.

That's why they are in phase 1 - they are much more likely to die than the people who aren't.

So, if we are successful in getting everyone in that group who wants to be vaccinated, vaccinated by Easter... then by early May, the death rate will have plunged. Fabulous news.

I wonder then if Long Covid among younger people will become more visible and receive more coverage. I have found it much more difficult to get statistics on that than on deaths. We have had a fairly clear picture from the start of the kind of people at more risk of dying from Covid. Relatively little about what increases your risk of Long Covid.

I wonder if increased coverage of Long Covid will be the thing which persuades some of the unsure people that it would be a good idea for them to get vaccinated after all.

I have possible “long Covid” 18 days into becoming ill in March I had paramedics out who assured me that As I was 18 days in I was past the “danger zone “ nine months later , I suffer from crippling fatigue and unexplained breathlessness , brain fog, depression as well as a host of other things .. I’ve no idea if I’ll ever be well again

This thread completely articulates my concerns. This vaccine rollout is almost more worrying for me than it is something to celebrate. Great that my parents will get vaccine, they will be off travelling again and out and about. But I will be still scared to catch virus cos if long Covid. And once restrictions are lifted it will just spread through the younger population. Lots of people I know seem to be fairly dismissive of it all and still allowing kids to go to activities, afternoons out at trampoline parks etc. So I think a lot of people will quickly go back to socialising if they are allowed. Then the virus will spread. And everyone in their 40s will be at risk of long Covid.

A few People on this thread and others have said people in their 40s are more at risk of long covid. Has there been evidence of this? I must have missed it. I'm in my early 30s and not particularly concerned. I know loads of people my age who have had it and all recovered quickly. I do worry more about my DM who is in her 50s though

@Ninbuscl

This thread completely articulates my concerns. This vaccine rollout is almost more worrying for me than it is something to celebrate. Great that my parents will get vaccine, they will be off travelling again and out and about. But I will be still scared to catch virus cos if long Covid. And once restrictions are lifted it will just spread through the younger population. Lots of people I know seem to be fairly dismissive of it all and still allowing kids to go to activities, afternoons out at trampoline parks etc. So I think a lot of people will quickly go back to socialising if they are allowed. Then the virus will spread. And everyone in their 40s will be at risk of long Covid.

Ninbuscl- you've summed up my fears exactly! Obviously it's amazing news that there will be a vaccine (or maybe even several) available soon, the risk of long covid for the unvaccinated under-50s is very worrying. While my risk of death is low, if I caught this disease I could end up with severe long term health issues which I feel would be worse than dying. I'm so worried that restrictions will be eased once the vulnerable are vaccinated and social distancing/WFH/wearing face coverings will all stop, while at the same time Covid spreads like wildfire.

I'm probably going to sell my house and move in with my parents so I can quit work and stay in as much as possible until the situation improves/'healthy' under 50s can get a vaccine.

I know the country can't function in lockdown until there is a vaccine available for anyone who wants it, it's just such an awful situation.

I totally agree. As somebody who has lived with a chronic illness following an acute illness for 15 years I don’t think enough emphasis is placed on the vaccine’s potential to prevent this sort of outcome.

The government tells us most cases of long covid are physically resolved within 3 months but (from the Spectator):

Research: Long-lung Covid-19

A new study has found that Covid-19 causes lung damage detectable three months after infection. Researchers from Oxford University studied ten patients aged between 19 and 69 by scanning them using a new technique: they asked patients to inhale a gas called xenon during MRI scans, which created an image of the damage. Eight patients still had some shortness of breath and fatigue three months after getting Covid-19, and while conventional scans had not indicated any problems, the xenon scans of their lungs highlighted areas where oxygen was not flowing easily into the blood. Professor Fergus Gleeson, who led the work, said: ‘I was expecting some form of lung damage, but not to the degree that we have seen.’ He is planning to scan up to 100 more patients to understand whether those not admitted to hospital may actually have underlying lung damage. He says this ‘would move the goalposts’ and may ‘help identify patients that may potentially benefit from treatment even after discharge, for example with steroids’.

I am in the 25-35 age bracelet, very fit and healthy with no underlying conditions. I caught covid in early March and despite initially light symptoms became very ill two weeks later. I suffered 5 months of agonising chest pain, breathlessness, cough and a myriad of other fluctuating symptoms. The issue is maybe you get lucky and don't get long covid but maybe you do, and 99% of the working age population cannot just take 6 months off work sick, or find childcare for when they cannot move.

At the moment we don't know enough about what causes it. Anecdotally 5 people in my very extended family have had covid, all caught in geographically distant locations, including outside the UK. All have been incredibly ill from ventilators for the 60+ ones to 6 months plus of long covid for the younger ones. Bad luck or some unknown genetic susceptibility?

For me, I cannot wait until the vaccination is available for my group.

Yes and we all know how many people have been saying “protect the vulnerable and let the rest of us get on with life” so you can only imagine the pressure from some people for normality to return once the vulnerable are protected. The government will need a big campaign to warn people of the dangers on long Covid if they want people to still be careful.

@alpinia

I am in the 25-35 age bracelet, very fit and healthy with no underlying conditions. I caught covid in early March and despite initially light symptoms became very ill two weeks later. I suffered 5 months of agonising chest pain, breathlessness, cough and a myriad of other fluctuating symptoms. The issue is maybe you get lucky and don't get long covid but maybe you do, and 99% of the working age population cannot just take 6 months off work sick, or find childcare for when they cannot move.

At the moment we don't know enough about what causes it. Anecdotally 5 people in my very extended family have had covid, all caught in geographically distant locations, including outside the UK. All have been incredibly ill from ventilators for the 60+ ones to 6 months plus of long covid for the younger ones. Bad luck or some unknown genetic susceptibility?

For me, I cannot wait until the vaccination is available for my group.

If things go 'back to normal' before the under 50s are vaccinated that'll leave a lot of very sick working age people with debilitating long term illness.

There needs to be a balance, as even from an economic perspective having loads sick at once won't help.

I am not dismissing the effects and devastation of long covid but I think it’s bringing post-infection illness it to light rather than it being new. That said, I understand covid leaves a different type of long term effect although, hopefully, it’s not permanent. Many serious respiratory infections leave people with permanent lung damage.

It would be great to get some stats but my "feeling" is that the incidence of post viral illness is greater for covid than influenza or other common infections. However, it is hard to know if that is true or whether it appears more common as more people have caught covid than influenza? Surely some numbers must be available by now? Perhaps no-one has ever collated numbers for influenza etc though.
I am also concerned that if the vaccine for under 50s is a long time away if restrictions are lifted at Easter it leaves us vulnerable to catching covid as it will spread rapidly in unvaccinated people.
We will personally be wearing masks and avoiding pubs, restaurants, cinemas etc until vaccinated. If a significant proportion of under 50s feel the same, once there is sufficient vaccine available, hopefully the government will deem that is cost effective to vaccinate under 50s for the benefit of the economy.

It's shocking that other governments e.g France are including the healthy under 50s in their vaccination plans yet we aren't. It might be many months away but it would be reassuring to know that we'd be included at some point, even if we're looking at July/August onwards.

The govt need to get the economy moving though ASAP, so if they suggest that healthy under 50s need a vaccine I suspect less people will be willing to go to pubs/restaurants etc...once restrictions are lifted. It's impossible for the economy to recover keeping social distancing restrictions so these will be lifted ASAP once the vulnerable are vaccinated and there is evidence of decreased deaths and hospitalisations.

The rest of us will have to take our chances sadly as this virus is so infectious that it will spread rapidly once SD is gone- it's already spreading even with these measures in place!!

I'm sure more and more research will be done into the long-term effects and numbers/percentages affected. At the moment, as the virus is still so new, and there has been so much attention paid to preventing deaths and hospitalisations, I guess there we still don't know how many people will have Medium Term Covid (3 months, say) versus Long Covid (up to a year) versus Really Long Covid (years). And there may well be some genetic susceptibility in particular individuals or groups, just as some people are more likely to develop autoimmune conditions after viruses. Long-term effects still seem pretty rare from my anecdata. Out of all the people I know who had the illness back in March (and some now) I only know 2 people who have had long-term effects. Neither was hospitalised and both are in their 50s. One has long-term digestive issues and the other fatigue and breathing difficulties, even though their chest scans are clear.

And of course remember once some people are vaccinated and there is additiona acquired immunity for several months amongst people who've had it, the rate of transmission will slow. Every immune person is a circuit breaker, to use a much-loved phrase, and stops a chain of transmission.

NHS care for people with ME has also been poor. One visit to a rheumatologist after a year long waiting list, then 6 sessions of group CBT. I don’t expect “long covid” to be treated any better.

This is definitely been on my mind a lot, too.
I heard in one of the news reports recently that they estimate for every death there is a case of long covid, in the UK at least. Of course the definition of "long" is not yet fixed so for some people that may be a few months, others more permanent.

The worry about long term effects is definitely my main reason for having been extremely careful to not catch covid. I'm single, have no family in this country and I'm also self-employed - it would be absolutely disastrous for me to get ill long term as I'd have no help and would struggle financially if I couldn't work. (Yes, I understand I could get any other chronic illness, but at least this one is easier to avoid catching than most.)

So we are relying on somebody to campaign to bring long Covid the attention it deserves. I think it is true that if there is an economic impact - eg people not going to retaurants as they aren’t vaccinated. Then The government will take notice of this. Or if there is an economic impact of people in 40s not being able to work or off sick this will make them take notice. If it’s just a matter of asking the government to care more about the poor people who end up with long Covid this will be less of an impact on getting the government to notice. Given the repeated calls from teaching unions asking for safer schools which has fallen on deaf ears and the government are just ignoring.

And yes we don’t know if the vaccine will stop people being able to transmit. So once my parents are vaccinated I will be able to hug them but may be taking a chance that they will pass Covid to me

If my DH who is in his late 40s does not get it before he is expected to return to his Birmingham commute on the train we will just pretend that we are living with my father who has cancer and get it under the ‘carer to someone vulnerable’ category. My family has been fucked over enough by the stupid decisions of this government and I will now do whatever it takes to protect me and my own.

I don't think the economic effects of people suffering from long covid would be that great for the government to do anything about offering vaccination to under 50s- I guess the logistics/cost of providing more vaccines would be much higher. In terms of work, if people don't want to commute/go to the office then there will be a long queue of people willing to take their places. Hundreds of thousands of previously healthy people are going to have their lives ruined from long covid though once restrictions are lifted and SD ends, it's very sad and worrying.

Sadly I think your assessment may be right biscoff. So o my possible economic concern for the government could be people not wanting to go on flights and go to restaurants if Covid is spreading. But I expect there will be plenty in 20s and 30s who will fill this gap.

I do believe that the vaccine will be offered to healthy under 50's. I just do. I'd like to think it was for humanitarian reasons, but there is also a powerful economic case.

I think the government has, at some level, grasped that long Covid is a big problem - that's why they are setting up a network of 50 clinic nationally to help people manage it. That is going to cost a shitload of money, and the bill will only grow if the number of people with long Covid continues to rise. Vaccinating the under 50's would be a lot cheaper.

I also believe they are planning to vaccinate under 50s. It's just a time thing and also they probably need to wait for the Oxford vaccine to do it.

My worry is that there are many young people out there who think they had covid in the early days - were not tested , had long standing symptoms but have returned to some kind of normal even if it’s not the normal they used to have . I worry that they may have damage lurking undetected that could cause them issues in years to come . At least if they knew they could plan for that future

I am mid forties, very fit and healthy and had Covid in March. Initially had mild flu like symptoms with loss of smell. At 10 days developed chest pains, shortness of breath and tachycardia. This has continued for the last 8 months. I work, look after my children. I don't go on about it so most of my friends and colleagues probably think I'm better. I have just been refered to the post Covid clinic as I am still unable to exercise.