Right, the vaccine is coming - when we get our normality back?

[Whenismumhome]

Normality as in no more masks, Perspex screens, social distancing and lockdowns etc etc - just back to normal like it was in 2019.

Surely by summer we will have some sort of normality back?

I think Easter for something vaguely normal, and summer (maybe September) for Life As We Knew It

Not if SAGE gets it way
Public Health Wales are already saying social distancing masks has to stay even after vaccine

Oh, my sweet summer child.

@tortoiseshell1985

Not if SAGE gets it way Public Health Wales are already saying social distancing masks has to stay even after vaccine

Hmm. Do they mean 'you can't just ditch all masks and go to a party as soon as you personally are vaccinated, because it takes two doses and because it's going to take a while to roll out to the wider population', or do they mean 'masks forever because we're in the pay of Etsy'?

I think closer to normal by April/May. Suspect there'll be a few things that linger on for ages - outbreaks in poorer countries, issues around travel to countries that require vaccine proof, people getting all indignant on AIBU because someone else tried to shake their hand...

Depends how long to get everyone vaccinated doesnt it?

Do we know how long the vaccine lasts.. will we need one every year?

I personally want to know when no 6 on their list get jabbed....

I think based on the timeline of vaccine roll out, at least across the developed world, by summer 2021 we’ll have some form of normality, if not quite “back to normal.”

When people say that masks are here to stay I suspect they mean culturally. I’ve not had so much as a sniffle since March despite being out and about all over the place including regularly in pubs and on public transport etc. I’ll probably keep wearing mine on the tube, at least in winter, if it helps even a bit against winter viruses and imagine others will too.

I think unfortunately the vaccination programme is going to take quite a bit longer than that.

First batch of vaccine - 800k doses - will cover NHS staff (750k people) and not really make a dent on the 6 million over-80s who are first in the queue.

I'd be very surprised if the under 50s are being vacced before Easter. We will be taking Covid precautions for a long time. The disease isn't going to vanish I don't think.

I think its going to be an interesting one, I'm wonder if there's going to be a flip of the situation we're in now, where the elderly and vulnerable, once vaccinated, feel much more confident in going out more and perhaps are even allowed to do more, if they did go down a 'vaccination passport' style route? Whereas the younger and less vulnerable have less freedoms, either due to continued government restrictions on them or due to still wanting to avoid catching the virus themselves, perhaps due them still being vulnernable, but not to an extent to meet early vaccine requirements.

ITV news tonight suggested it might not be until Easter that the vaccine works down to those 65+ and the vulnerable, so who know how long until younger age groups get it.

Nobody is safe until there’s a large uptake of the vaccine.

We need to eliminate the disease but keep those who can’t have the vaccine safe - the only way that will happen is when there is herd community.

It will be months before any normally occurs and only then for those vaccinated. Everyone else will have to wait.

@BluebellsGreenbells

Nobody is safe until there’s a large uptake of the vaccine.

We need to eliminate the disease but keep those who can’t have the vaccine safe - the only way that will happen is when there is herd community.

It will be months before any normally occurs and only then for those vaccinated. Everyone else will have to wait.

Hi, it's not going to be eliminated it's an endemic virus

I think in a years time.

First batch of vaccine - 800k doses - will cover NHS staff (750k people) and not really make a dent on the 6 million over-80s who are first in the queue.

Since it’s 2 doses per person, the 800k batch will vaccinate 400k people.

But I think as more and more people get vaccinated, restrictions will be able to be lifted gradually because the numbers will start to come down before we reach a point where everyone is vaccinated surely? Especially the numbers in hospitals as more and more of the people who are most likely to end up in hospital from COVID are vaccinated first.

I doubt the Perspex screens will come down.

The 800k batch could give a first dose to 800k people, it depends when the next batch is due.

Perspex screens are here forever imo, businesses have spent a fortune installing them and I can't see them spending money removing them.

... but the vaccine only protects the person having it from severe covid-19 symptoms.

It's unknown if the person can pass it on to others, vaccinated or not.
So I think restrictions will be in place for the nx 8-12 months (just a wild guess).

As someone who used to work in retail I hope perspex screens stay. They'll give staff some protection from aggressive customers.

I thought Hancock was hinting yesterday that it could be as early as April, but that is very much dependent on how quickly manufacturers can fulfil orders.

We'd expect some loosening of restrictions in the summer anyhow, assuming transmission rates were low (just like last summer)

And then perhaps they need not be re-imposed in the autumn.

Though I think keeping a distance away from strangers, cleaning high-touch points frequently, having better ventilation indoors and yes wearing a mask if you have symptoms that mean you're likely to be sneezing, coughing and otherwise exuding your winter lurgy germs about the place. Also, now that WFH is established is OK for so many more roles than before, I think more people will stay at home when ill (even though not everyone can, it's still a worthwhile benefit even in part)

Close to normal by Easter then complete normal by summer I'd say. Most people I know are already longing for that, so once the vulnerable are vaccinated I think it will be very hard to sustain restrictions from a compliance POV. Certain things like the 2m rule are already dying out where I live & The Panic has really gone. Boris has always had libertarian inclinations and his party are obviously not inclined to have any more restrictions than they feel to be absolutely necessary to keep the NHS functional. Plus the social and economic cost of Tier 3 in particular is eye-watering. And Chris Witty has actual admitted that Covid has an obvious seasonal factor, hence cases continuing to fall in the summer despite reopening & everyone moving round on holidays. So I just can't see any circumstances in which this goes past the summer - I'm not convinced it would be sustainable into the summer even without a vaccine TBH

once the vulnerable are vaccinated I think it will be very hard to sustain restrictions from a compliance POV.

I think you’re right, and as an older “vulnerable” teacher I find this worrying. If the NHS is out of danger, it may be considered quite acceptable for infection rates to rise, especially among youngsters like those I teach.

@Whenismumhome

Normality as in no more masks, Perspex screens, social distancing and lockdowns etc etc - just back to normal like it was in 2019.

Surely by summer we will have some sort of normality back?

Easy answer. None of us knows when.

I suspected that seasonal reductions from Easter would have eased resrictions anyway. A vaccine may accelerate that. More importantly by the autumn, the most vulnerable portions of society will have been protected so restrictions are far less likely to return. It's not been clarified if u50s will be vaccinated and it is not licenced for children.

You'd have to be pretty hardcore to voluntarily cover up your face in summer, and I can see complience fading rapidly in the spring. Noses out is a good indication of who is doing the minimum they can get away with for a quiet life.

@PhilCornwall1 true, but we can be quite sure it won’t be by Spring, this’ll take months to get going properly, along with inevitable delays etc.

The Van Tamm guy also let slip a lot of this stuff will go on for a long time, whilst he back tracked a bit, he’s often very honest and let’s thing slip that they don’t want known yet.

JVT was in the news/Newsnight last night saying that masks, social distancing, hand washing etc should carry on for the control of respiratory illnesses regardless of vaccinations.

Not normality next year but more freedom imo. Everything open but still masks and SD indoors. I think screens etc will be permanent and people will naturally congregate less. No music festivals who next summer