Right, the vaccine is coming - when we get our normality back?

[Whenismumhome]

Normality as in no more masks, Perspex screens, social distancing and lockdowns etc etc - just back to normal like it was in 2019.

Surely by summer we will have some sort of normality back?

@Artus

I see Pfizer are now saying they can only ship 50% of the originally planned doses worldwide, this year. So already the vaccination programme is slowing down. Shortages of raw materials.

Of course there are going to be issues in delivery. But this won’t be the only vaccine to be approved soon. We have enough already on its way to the UK to get started and more will follow soon of this vaccine plus others. We are in a very good place with vaccines at the moment.

@TheNighthawk

Nobody said it was a conspiracy theory. It was accidentally released from the lab where it is well documented virologists were doing 'gain of function' research with bat coronaviruses - despite the objections of the entire world virological community. These techniques are absolutely forbidden in the rest of the world as they are so potentially dangerous

You know this as a fact how exactly?

@TheNighthawk

Certainly not 95% reduction in infection rate, as the researchers have stated it does not reduce upper respiratory tract infection

Please can you provide a link to where you are getting this information from, as I can't find anything. Apart from when they initially carried out experiments with macaque monkeys, but from my understanding they absolutely flooded their airways with the virus.

Regarding the vaccine you really need to analyse what 95% effectiveness means. 95% of what?

95% reduction in symptomatic covid. They published their trial protocols, so we know what they were measuring.

I would assume 95% reduction in severe lung disease

But that's not what they were counting.

but what population did they study? Age? Underlying conditions? Race? Sex? We don't know much.

Yes, we do. www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine "Approximately 42% of global participants and 30% of U.S. participants have racially and ethnically diverse backgrounds, and 41% of global and 45% of U.S. participants are 56-85 years of age."

Certainly not 95% reduction in infection rate, as the researchers have stated it does not reduce upper respiratory tract infection.

No, no they did not state that.

You really need to learn how to analyse data

Uh-huh...

@BikeRunSki

JVT was in the news/Newsnight last night saying that masks, social distancing, hand washing etc should carry on for the control of respiratory illnesses regardless of vaccinations.

The 90% fall in flu cases does make you wonder.

@BlueBlancmange

A number of links for you to read - there are many others both in learned journals and on the internet:

1. Selection of references to possible lab origin of covid-19, and associated issues

www.icta.org/files/2020/07/Covid-references-for-ICTA-website.pdf

2.From Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Good summary
thebulletin.org/2020/06/did-the-sars-cov-2-virus-arise-from-a-bat-coronavirus-research-program-in-a-chinese-laboratory-very-possibly/

3.Technical stuff from Yuri Deigin (Viral Geneticist, Toronto) with most likely conclusion it came from a lab
yurideigin.medium.com/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-through-the-lens-of-gain-of-function-research-f96dd7413748

4.Latham and Wilson, case for lab origin
www.independentsciencenews.org/health/the-case-is-building-that-covid-19-had-a-lab-origin/

I have no faith they can roll this out as quickly as they think they can. Remember the chaos over PPE and testing? I believe it will be the middle of the year before they can finish with even the 70s and over. Many older people (and some younger ones too) have mobility issues and lack transport so are not in a position to make their own way and queue in mass vaccination centers. Special arrangements will need to be made to bus them in and transfer them to wheelchairs. While this sounds quite simple I think it will be a huge logistical challenge to our birdbrain administrators.

That's what Im worried about. I'm not sure how long people will maintain the rules for now either. Especially if they arent in any of the vulnerable groups.

@PineappleUpsideDownCake seeing as they’ve said back to normal around spring time there is no way they will get people to comply past then, even if vaccine rollout stage 1 isn’t complete. They will struggle to get people to comply even until spring as this has gone on so long and will struggle to get restrictions past parliament in January when they re-vote.

That is definitely the fear isnt it. I'm worried it might be the most dangerous time for those of us cv. I think January will see a huge rise and be a difficult month.

@GoldenOmber

Regarding the vaccine you really need to analyse what 95% effectiveness means. 95% of what?

95% reduction in symptomatic covid. They published their trial protocols, so we know what they were measuring.

I would assume 95% reduction in severe lung disease

But that's not what they were counting.

but what population did they study? Age? Underlying conditions? Race? Sex? We don't know much.

Yes, we do. www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine "Approximately 42% of global participants and 30% of U.S. participants have racially and ethnically diverse backgrounds, and 41% of global and 45% of U.S. participants are 56-85 years of age."

Certainly not 95% reduction in infection rate, as the researchers have stated it does not reduce upper respiratory tract infection.

No, no they did not state that.

You really need to learn how to analyse data

Uh-huh...

www.pfizer.com/science/coronavirus/vaccine

Is the breakdown. Plus answers some of the common questions

@sneakysnoopysniper

I have no faith they can roll this out as quickly as they think they can. Remember the chaos over PPE and testing? I believe it will be the middle of the year before they can finish with even the 70s and over. Many older people (and some younger ones too) have mobility issues and lack transport so are not in a position to make their own way and queue in mass vaccination centers. Special arrangements will need to be made to bus them in and transfer them to wheelchairs. While this sounds quite simple I think it will be a huge logistical challenge to our birdbrain administrators.

Overly negative and really lacking gratitude to people working extremely long hours to administer vaccine.

To help back to normality NHS are asking those who have either confirmed or symptoms to donate plasma if they can. For more details

www.nhsbt.nhs.uk/covid-19-research/plasma-donors/who-can-donate-plasma/

I'm not affiliated with any of this other than I used an app back from March to log symptoms including Long CV

@GoldenOmbre
95% reduction in symptomatic covid. They published their trial protocols, so we know what they were measuring.

But were they?

blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/11/26/peter-doshi-pfizer-and-modernas-95-effective-vaccines-lets-be-cautious-and-first-see-the-full-data/

but what population did they study? Age? Underlying conditions? Race? Sex? We don't know much.

Yes, we do. www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine "Approximately 42% of global participants and 30% of U.S. participants have racially and ethnically diverse backgrounds, and 41% of global and 45% of U.S. participants are 56-85 years of age."

Sorry, no, we don’t. Despite the inclusion of these groups none of the studies were powered to deduce benefit to them. Immunocompromised people and pregnant women were also excluded. The Pfizer trial has also only just been widened to include people with HIV and younger adolescents.

Astra Zeneca have been very cagey about their protocols until recently, and now we know a little more it seems to be a complete mess. They did swab their participants weekly, however (at least in the UK arm). The endpoints of all the trials was symptomatic covid, though the symptom selection as different for each. I do not know if swab results were known in the AstraZeneca trial. If so, this may clearly have influenced the perception of the endpoint in that subject, if positive.

This interesting paper from Prof Peter Piot summarises the current vaccine knowledge, together with lots of other interesting information, including the geopolitics of vaccine availability.
It also includes the point, more than once, that I have been trying to make:

The picture that emerges is that an approved vaccine will not be a silver bullet but simply a tool that is part of a broader set of measures that must continue to be deployed, such as the wearing of masks, good hand hygiene and social distancing –

Paper, Prof Peter Piot. Director, London School of Hygeine and Tropical Medicine
institute.global/policy/covid-19-vaccine-realism-good-news-and-bad-news

The point as also made by Eric Topol, Director of the Scripps Research Institute -

‘….we need to see the licencing of these vaccines for what it is: emergency use clearance in a pandemic which is killing hundreds of thousands and closing down economies around the world.’

This is why it makes my heart sink to see some of the responses here and in the papers. These vaccines will not mean normality again. They are just the start and simply part of an armoury. Those who feel thy can have a vaccine and fling caution to the wind are endangering us all.

[quote TheNighthawk]**@GoldenOmbre
95% reduction in symptomatic covid. They published their trial protocols, so we know what they were measuring.

But were they?

blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/11/26/peter-doshi-pfizer-and-modernas-95-effective-vaccines-lets-be-cautious-and-first-see-the-full-data/

but what population did they study? Age? Underlying conditions? Race? Sex? We don't know much.

Yes, we do. www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine "Approximately 42% of global participants and 30% of U.S. participants have racially and ethnically diverse backgrounds, and 41% of global and 45% of U.S. participants are 56-85 years of age."

Sorry, no, we don’t. Despite the inclusion of these groups none of the studies were powered to deduce benefit to them. Immunocompromised people and pregnant women were also excluded. The Pfizer trial has also only just been widened to include people with HIV and younger adolescents.

Astra Zeneca have been very cagey about their protocols until recently, and now we know a little more it seems to be a complete mess. They did swab their participants weekly, however (at least in the UK arm). The endpoints of all the trials was symptomatic covid, though the symptom selection as different for each. I do not know if swab results were known in the AstraZeneca trial. If so, this may clearly have influenced the perception of the endpoint in that subject, if positive.

This interesting paper from Prof Peter Piot summarises the current vaccine knowledge, together with lots of other interesting information, including the geopolitics of vaccine availability.
It also includes the point, more than once, that I have been trying to make:

The picture that emerges is that an approved vaccine will not be a silver bullet but simply a tool that is part of a broader set of measures that must continue to be deployed, such as the wearing of masks, good hand hygiene and social distancing –

Paper, Prof Peter Piot. Director, London School of Hygeine and Tropical Medicine
institute.global/policy/covid-19-vaccine-realism-good-news-and-bad-news

The point as also made by Eric Topol, Director of the Scripps Research Institute -

‘….we need to see the licencing of these vaccines for what it is: emergency use clearance in a pandemic which is killing hundreds of thousands and closing down economies around the world.’

This is why it makes my heart sink to see some of the responses here and in the papers. These vaccines will not mean normality again. They are just the start and simply part of an armoury. Those who feel thy can have a vaccine and fling caution to the wind are endangering us all.[/quote]
Umm no, we can't social distance forever, we have to get back to normal eventually.

[quote TheNighthawk]**@GoldenOmbre
95% reduction in symptomatic covid. They published their trial protocols, so we know what they were measuring.

But were they?

blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/11/26/peter-doshi-pfizer-and-modernas-95-effective-vaccines-lets-be-cautious-and-first-see-the-full-data/

but what population did they study? Age? Underlying conditions? Race? Sex? We don't know much.

Yes, we do. www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine "Approximately 42% of global participants and 30% of U.S. participants have racially and ethnically diverse backgrounds, and 41% of global and 45% of U.S. participants are 56-85 years of age."

Sorry, no, we don’t. Despite the inclusion of these groups none of the studies were powered to deduce benefit to them. Immunocompromised people and pregnant women were also excluded. The Pfizer trial has also only just been widened to include people with HIV and younger adolescents.

Astra Zeneca have been very cagey about their protocols until recently, and now we know a little more it seems to be a complete mess. They did swab their participants weekly, however (at least in the UK arm). The endpoints of all the trials was symptomatic covid, though the symptom selection as different for each. I do not know if swab results were known in the AstraZeneca trial. If so, this may clearly have influenced the perception of the endpoint in that subject, if positive.

This interesting paper from Prof Peter Piot summarises the current vaccine knowledge, together with lots of other interesting information, including the geopolitics of vaccine availability.
It also includes the point, more than once, that I have been trying to make:

The picture that emerges is that an approved vaccine will not be a silver bullet but simply a tool that is part of a broader set of measures that must continue to be deployed, such as the wearing of masks, good hand hygiene and social distancing –

Paper, Prof Peter Piot. Director, London School of Hygeine and Tropical Medicine
institute.global/policy/covid-19-vaccine-realism-good-news-and-bad-news

The point as also made by Eric Topol, Director of the Scripps Research Institute -

‘….we need to see the licencing of these vaccines for what it is: emergency use clearance in a pandemic which is killing hundreds of thousands and closing down economies around the world.’

This is why it makes my heart sink to see some of the responses here and in the papers. These vaccines will not mean normality again. They are just the start and simply part of an armoury. Those who feel thy can have a vaccine and fling caution to the wind are endangering us all.[/quote]
Who do you mean by all in last sentence? Not those who’ve had the vaccine?

But no SD won’t remain beyond hospitalisation issue as economic hit is too great.

Even phase 1 reduces deaths by 99%, we will move on.

[quote BlueBlancmange]@TheNighthawk

Certainly not 95% reduction in infection rate, as the researchers have stated it does not reduce upper respiratory tract infection

Please can you provide a link to where you are getting this information from, as I can't find anything. Apart from when they initially carried out experiments with macaque monkeys, but from my understanding they absolutely flooded their airways with the virus.[/quote]
Yes, this was from the initial experiments with macaques. However, they did not 'flood their airways' with virus. Following vaccination they gave a lower airway viral challenge and then a nasal challenge.

There is no similar data existing for the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. Sinovac did a similar study but the trial design was different.

All the vaccines differ only in their method of transporting the genetic material to the cells, is my understanding. It does not seem beyond belief that results would be similar for the RNA vaccines, though, of course, that would have to be demonstrated. Depends whether you think getting China to do BAL on yet more sets of macaques is worth it, I suppose.

@MarshaBradyo

You clearly haven't read the links. Inform yourself.

Nighthawk it’s enough to read your posts to see you are cherry picking.

How long do you think MPs will vote for SD restrictions? Can you suggest a timescale with your deep knowledge.

Interesting from England’s Deputy Chief medical officer -

Prof Van-Tam told BBC News: "If we can get through phase one [of the priority list] and it is a highly effective vaccine and there is very, very high up take, then we could in theory take out 99% of hospitalisations and deaths related to Covid 19.

So I’m going to say spring/early summer.

I think you’ve gone down a rabbit hole. The vaccine hasn’t been tested on everyone, it doesn’t mean that we won’t lift restrictions as soon as we are able.

So to recap on that, TheNighthawk:

• You said we don’t know what the ‘95% efficacy’ applies to, you guess it is severe lung disease.
• I said that we do know what they were looking for- symptomatic covid, as is in the trial protocol.
• You said ‘But were they?’ and linked to someone else saying they should have been measuring something else as the endpoint.

• You said we don’t know who was in the trials - age? Sex? Ethnicity? Underlying conditions?
• I said yes, we do know who was in the trials in these groups, again this is public information now.
• You said ‘Sorry, no we don’t’ and criticised the studies for not being targeted towards identifying benefit in specific groups individually, and criticised AstraZeneca for having different protocols around swabbing.

This is just moving the goalposts. You complain we don’t have answers to specific questions, I say yes we do, and you immediately shift to “well that doesn’t answer this OTHER question so it doesn’t count.”

This is why it makes my heart sink to see some of the responses here and in the papers. These vaccines will not mean normality again. They are just the start and simply part of an armoury.

They are ‘just the start’ of a move back to normality. Nobody thinks the world will ping back to normal as soon as they personally are vaccinated, but if your point is that a 95% effective, safe, widely available vaccine won’t actually end the pandemic once enough people have got it, then you are being deeply committed to pessimism in the face of all available evidence.

Do we socially distance and wear masks to avoid the transmission of polio and measles, both of which are still around, and both of which are more highly infectious than covid? No. No we don’t. So we’re not going to with this, either. Sorry to the people who are hoping we will, but it’s not going to happen.

I won't be social distancing a day longer than I have to. No chance.

Kittens don’t worry MPs are being bombarded by constituents who say the same. When the hospitalisation data changes and deaths drastically decrease they won’t vote them through.

I think this board come April/May time is going to be absolute mayhem. “How can you go about gallivanting like things are normal, there’s still a pandemic on don’t you know! Think about Granny!” vs “Granny’s been vaccinated so I’m off to the pub. WITH GRANNY.”