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Original poster

Right, the vaccine is coming - when we get our normality back?

168 replies

Whenismumhome · 02/12/2020 23:00

Normality as in no more masks, Perspex screens, social distancing and lockdowns etc etc - just back to normal like it was in 2019.

Surely by summer we will have some sort of normality back?

OP posts:
MillieEpple · 03/12/2020 16:39

With the 1 million a week its a two dose vaccine so we need to double the lenghth of time?
But i do think pressure on hospitals will ease when staff are vaccinated as they wont have to isolate and when icus arent filling up which seems to be when the harsher restrictions come in.
Id like a permanent shift in handwashing and staying away from others when you have a cold.
I think easter is optimistic for all the proposed categories but the next half term - so May.

HipTightOnions · 03/12/2020 17:03

They’ve already said it’s going to personal responsibility from April.

I get this but what about those who are lower down the list, middle-aged and/or CV but whose work doesn’t allow them to take “personal responsibility”? Yes, teachers, but also taxi drivers, retail workers etc etc etc.

MarshaBradyo · 03/12/2020 17:05

I can’t see that MPs will keep voting further restrictions a minute beyond having to. So when hospitalisation falls.

Private decisions like Perspex in shops not sure, also masks not sure

MarshaBradyo · 03/12/2020 17:06

Further - for

MillieEpple · 03/12/2020 17:10

It isnt really personal responsibility they mean. That to me means if i dont take an umbrella i get wet. They are asking people to do things voluntarily that help other people. Responsible citizens or something.

FuzzyPuffling · 03/12/2020 18:16

If you're that far down the list you'd be unlikely to have a serious illness even if you did catch Covid. In any case, nothing stopping you staying at home and avoiding crowded places even if others are free to do so.

Priority 6 is adults with a range of chronic conditions that have poor outcomes for Covid, eg chronic heart or kidney disease, specific cancers. They are just above everyone over 60, which is still a risk factor.

I'd like to hope that measures are not relaxed until the "Number 6 on the list" group are vaccinated.

PineappleUpsideDownCake · 03/12/2020 19:15

Thanks fuzzy. My thoughts exactly.

IcedPurple · 03/12/2020 19:17

I'd like to hope that measures are not relaxed until the "Number 6 on the list" group are vaccinated.

That could be months away. The country will not remain in (mostly) Tier 3 for that long.

FuzzyPuffling · 03/12/2020 20:18

The country will not remain in (mostly) Tier 3 for that long.

It might have to (different areas being in and out of different tiers).

Bushola · 03/12/2020 20:25

It’ll be worse than tier 3, you just know they’ll be a period of national restrictions including the stay at home order Jan/Feb/Mar with so called non essential retail etc shut again.

Racoonworld · 03/12/2020 20:29

@HipTightOnions The majority if the CV group and those over 50 are on the priority list so should have been vaccinated by the time restrictions are relaxed in April. those not on the list and under 60 are a much less risk, very low risk of dying in fact, so everyone will just have to get on with life at that point and accept they may or may not get it, just like any other illness. I'm not in the priority group even though I am on the CV list, I am perfectly happy to get on with my life in April even though I know I won't have had the vaccine by then Even though I'm CV my risk is still very low.

GoldenOmber · 03/12/2020 20:30

@Bushola

It’ll be worse than tier 3, you just know they’ll be a period of national restrictions including the stay at home order Jan/Feb/Mar with so called non essential retail etc shut again.
Non-essential retail already is shut where I live, but cases are dropping and I don’t see any reason why it would all stay shut until March.

Do you have any reason for thinking this other than a vague sense of doom?

TheNighthawk · 03/12/2020 20:31

I also think the reality is that normality is 5-10 years away, if ever.

However, pragmatically, there has to be an economic recovery, and I think that some semblance of normality will be encouraged simply to facilitate that, even if it means more people suffering from long covid.

The vaccines will likely result in fewer direct and immediate deaths from covid, so masking the delayed mortality and morbidity and allowing resumption of a great deal of economic activity without the backlash for governments that would otherwise occur.

There are so many caveats with these vaccines - they are certainly not the silver bullet. My reading is that they all have some success in preventing serious lung disease but none of them prevent upper respiratory tract infection, and therefore presumably do not prevent people infecting others.

Covid is far more infectious than flu or colds so anti-infection policies will still have to be active. Remember, there are many people who cannot be vaccinated for various reasons, or who, if vaccinated, cannot mount an adequate immune response.

We do not know how long any immunity may last after vaccination. It occurs to me that it will take so long to vaccinate the population that we may well find that before the program has been completed (perhaps long before) those in the original cohorts may have lost their immunity and require re-vaccination.

The vaccine trials, to my knowledge, did not include many of the elderly or vulnerable in their trial groups, so the response of these groups is not well documented.

I think we should not be over-optimistic in our expectations of the vaccines. It is a long road ahead.

TheNighthawk · 03/12/2020 20:33

And perhaps the bitterest pill is that China has succeeded in destabilising the whole world by releasing this virus from the Wuhan lab (undoubtedly where it cam from IMO) and is hugely profiting from the resulting chaos.

GoldenOmber · 03/12/2020 20:36

A 95% effective vaccine actually is a ‘silver bullet’, though. Really it is.

I appreciate it’s going to take a long time for some people to let go of the gloom and pessimism that have so characterised this year, but normal life is coming back.

GoldenOmber · 03/12/2020 20:37

@TheNighthawk

And perhaps the bitterest pill is that China has succeeded in destabilising the whole world by releasing this virus from the Wuhan lab (undoubtedly where it cam from IMO) and is hugely profiting from the resulting chaos.
It didn’t come from a Wuhan lab and it isn’t a nefarious plan by China to destabilise the world. You’re listening to conspiracy theory bollocks and they’re lying to you.
MarshaBradyo · 03/12/2020 20:41

@GoldenOmber

A 95% effective vaccine actually is a ‘silver bullet’, though. Really it is.

I appreciate it’s going to take a long time for some people to let go of the gloom and pessimism that have so characterised this year, but normal life is coming back.

Yes there has been a feeling of struggling to let go of negativity over last few days on here
Nootkah · 03/12/2020 20:45

@Babamamananarama

I think unfortunately the vaccination programme is going to take quite a bit longer than that.

First batch of vaccine - 800k doses - will cover NHS staff (750k people) and not really make a dent on the 6 million over-80s who are first in the queue.

I'd be very surprised if the under 50s are being vacced before Easter. We will be taking Covid precautions for a long time. The disease isn't going to vanish I don't think.

NHS employs over 1.5 million staff, not 750k
gingercat02 · 03/12/2020 21:09

I don't think there are any plans to vaccinate the well under 50's at all. The flu jab is over 65's in a normal year. It's only this year we have gone younger to ease winter pressures. I had mine at work (NHS) but none of my 50 something friends have been invited for a flu jab yet!

BlueBlancmange · 03/12/2020 21:17

@TheNighthawk

I also think the reality is that normality is 5-10 years away, if ever.

However, pragmatically, there has to be an economic recovery, and I think that some semblance of normality will be encouraged simply to facilitate that, even if it means more people suffering from long covid.

The vaccines will likely result in fewer direct and immediate deaths from covid, so masking the delayed mortality and morbidity and allowing resumption of a great deal of economic activity without the backlash for governments that would otherwise occur.

There are so many caveats with these vaccines - they are certainly not the silver bullet. My reading is that they all have some success in preventing serious lung disease but none of them prevent upper respiratory tract infection, and therefore presumably do not prevent people infecting others.

Covid is far more infectious than flu or colds so anti-infection policies will still have to be active. Remember, there are many people who cannot be vaccinated for various reasons, or who, if vaccinated, cannot mount an adequate immune response.

We do not know how long any immunity may last after vaccination. It occurs to me that it will take so long to vaccinate the population that we may well find that before the program has been completed (perhaps long before) those in the original cohorts may have lost their immunity and require re-vaccination.

The vaccine trials, to my knowledge, did not include many of the elderly or vulnerable in their trial groups, so the response of these groups is not well documented.

I think we should not be over-optimistic in our expectations of the vaccines. It is a long road ahead.

Is Covid far more infectious than flu? Anyway, your post seems to be a lot of speculation. It's possible I guess, but it seems you are deliberately putting an extremely negative spin on it.
BlueBlancmange · 03/12/2020 21:18

Is Covid far more infectious than flu? Anyway, your post seems to be a lot of speculation. It's possible I guess, but it seems you are deliberately putting an extremely negative spin on it

More infectious than colds I meant. Obviously it is more infectious than flu.

TotorosFurryBehind · 03/12/2020 21:20

I think the perspex screens are here to stay and that's a good thing. Why should retail workers have to put up with being coughed and sneezed at by random strangers, that's kinda gross, Covid or not.

Artus · 03/12/2020 21:44

I see Pfizer are now saying they can only ship 50% of the originally planned doses worldwide, this year. So already the vaccination programme is slowing down. Shortages of raw materials.

Billie18 · 03/12/2020 21:50

@TotorosFurryBehind

I think the perspex screens are here to stay and that's a good thing. Why should retail workers have to put up with being coughed and sneezed at by random strangers, that's kinda gross, Covid or not.
If the restrictions continue in shops (perspex screens, masks, no changing rooms, toilets shut, queues, social distancing, one way systems etc) then retail as we know it will die and retail workers will be out of a job. They will be free to seek work that does not involve interaction with "random strangers". Might be quite tricky when we are heading for the biggest rescission in 300 years.
TheNighthawk · 03/12/2020 21:54

GoldenOmber

It didn’t come from a Wuhan lab and it isn’t a nefarious plan by China to destabilise the world. You’re listening to conspiracy theory bollocks and they’re lying to you

Nobody said it was a conspiracy theory. It was accidentally released from the lab where it is well documented virologists were doing 'gain of function' research with bat coronaviruses - despite the objections of the entire world virological community. These techniques are absolutely forbidden in the rest of the world as they are so potentially dangerous.

Of course the release was not deliberate - you would have to be insane to do that - but the unsafe practices and dangerous research led to this.

Regarding the vaccine you really need to analyse what 95% effectiveness means. 95% of what? I would assume 95% reduction in severe lung disease - but what population did they study? Age? Underlying conditions? Race? Sex? We don't know much.

Certainly not 95% reduction in infection rate, as the researchers have stated it does not reduce upper respiratory tract infection.

You really need to learn how to analyse data - at least what is available.