Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

Thansk Ceeee. Is that primary Sen schools too? The issue is the high number of staff in classes, close working proximity, and also that some of our classes cannot be covered by supply staff.

We've had to send some classes home on some days due to staff absences (either recovering from Covid or self isolating or looking after their own children si.) pupils and the exhausted staff deserve better.

Sorry, I don’t know, I just copied and pasted from the govt press release. It sounds like it would be to me but can’t be sure? Perhaps ask the school, they presumably would be told at some point (although knowing our govt it will be an email at midnight the day before it starts....)

So, I guess we now have it. Transmission occurs rapidly in schools via asymptomatic young people and is then carried into the community.

Can I say 'we told you so?' yet??

That's great news about the secondary school testing I've got DD and DSS both with Alevels next summer and it'll be hugely beneficial to them not to be missing chunks of school every time there's a case in one of their classes. The weekly testing will hopefully pick up more of the asymptomatic cases too so should slow transmission down.

@Neuro - my reading of the wording @ceeveebee just posted is that all special schools are to be included along with secondaries "from January" - though that may mean late January I guess in practice.

@piggy Better late than never though!

Hmmmm.... I could say it is too late for some people but dont want to be maudlin.

There was an interesting article about teenagers and primary aged pupils in Der Spiegel on another thread. Will see if I can find.

Here it is:

www.spiegel.de/international/world/new-on-the-covid-19-front-lines-children-may-be-driving-the-pandemic-after-all-a-95e4c0e7-2ea0-479b-ac27-d17f07d147a5

And school attendance stats not looking good:

explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak

The schools testing info is good news so long as:

1. “Close contact” is a well defined and meaningful term. My college will swear blind I can’t have been in close contact with anyone because 2m, magic teaching box, bubbles, despite none of this being true.

2)Tests are available when required and are paid for by Government, unlike, for example, cleaning equipment and technology, both of which were promised but often didn’t materialise.

3. Trained staff are available to administer tests. I can easily imagine a situation where schools are told that tests must be administered by form tutors in tutor time, prob without PPE as “schools are safe”.

The literature certainly seems to suggest school staff will be doing the testing.

I think there is a precedent here that I think some university staff were asked to work at testing centres ... a lurking academic might know?

But 18- 21 year olds are a rather different prospect from 11-18 year olds!

teachers can do every job simultaneously.Nurse, social worker, counsellor,teacher, parent, police officer, covid warden, health and safety compliance officer, firefighter (I have actually done that!) etc True fact

Born given that I was told in July we'd have testing Units rocking up outside schools to test lots of people if cases occurred in sept, which never happened, ill believe it when I see it.

That happened in Germany though. A friend's son's school had a few cases so they tested everyone.

More new data points on the dashboard: as well as the age heat map there is also now a chart (with the data underneath) of the over 60+ positive cases and rates for England, down to local authority level

By brain is a bit fried today but I’m happy about this mass testing

Am I right that if you it was used perfectly then you could cut isolation right down for each student?

You would only isolate if you were the positive and so that would be once in a long period?

And I know it’s not so ways perfectly done

But just theoretically

The table of councils on www.covidmessenger.com/ is updated with today's data.

I think the government simply needs to look at Wales for all the answers - they seem to have solved Covid! Only 615 cases today

They really ought to have a note explaining this omission in the dashboard - in the meantime, best to look at England only to see changes in rates.

@borntobequiet

The schools testing info is good news so long as:

1. “Close contact” is a well defined and meaningful term. My college will swear blind I can’t have been in close contact with anyone because 2m, magic teaching box, bubbles, despite none of this being true.

2)Tests are available when required and are paid for by Government, unlike, for example, cleaning equipment and technology, both of which were promised but often didn’t materialise.

3. Trained staff are available to administer tests. I can easily imagine a situation where schools are told that tests must be administered by form tutors in tutor time, prob without PPE as “schools are safe”.

Dd currently has an issue with your first point here. She was working with someone two days ago who has now tested positive. Her work say she was never in close contact even though they know people are closer than 2m. They do wear masks. I think she should be isolating, work have said she doesn’t need to so she’s back off to work tomorrow. 🤷‍♀️

[quote MRex]What is it about these bloody mink? US, wild mink now catching covid... www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-55309269[/quote]
Is it originally a mink virus?

From the Guardian

The UK-wide coronavirus death toll has passed 81,000.

The total number of Covid-related deaths across the UK as per the three statistical agencies, the ONS, National Records for Scotland and NISRA, which count all deaths where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate, now stands at 78,256.

A further 3,031 deaths have occurred since these agencies last reported, bringing the overall Covid death toll across the UK since the pandemic began to 81,287.

The figure is higher than the government’s Covid death toll of 64,908. The latter figure only covers people who have died within 28 days of testing positive for the virus.

I think if they can get an adequate supply of the lateral flow tests out to schools then it'll work fine. The reason teachers are being pressured to work even if they suspect they've been close to a case is because schools are close to falling apart without them and heads are under pressure to keep them open. Once they can hand anyone who's worried a bunch of tests and say - take one of these each morning and come to work as normal, then the problem is solved.

Where will they be administered though? With secondary aged children in particular, you'd really want them to do the tests at home and not go in if they were positive - not end up a bus ride away from home in a crowded school finding out they were positive.

Ermmm, yeah, it'll all be fiiiiine.
What could possibly go wrong??

schoolsweek.co.uk/7-staff-roles-2-hour-training-and-dhsc-sign-off-on-press-schools-given-mass-testing-instructions/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Problem with the tests in schools is that I suspect the idea is no one isolates. This means that a false negative will potentially have a day to spread it around. Of course what really will hit the press is any false positives...

There's also the issue with number of tests. Close contacts at one point in ds' year was 2/3 of the pupils. That's 200 pupils. Over 7 days that's 1400 tests. Plus there were around 200 from other years isolating from other close contacts each day. Multiply that by the number of secondary schools... do we really believe schools will get enough tests for that sort of numbers?

Wasn't that at the start of term though @witch? I didn't think schools were counting entire year groups as close contacts any more. I've only heard of those who sit near being counted, if it's just a single case. They will still need a lot of tests, I agree.

@piggy - I'm sure it's not without challenges, but there are a lot of challenges for a lot of people right now! I do hope teachers recognise the value in this, rise to the challenge and that the government does its part by ensuring sufficient tests. It does say in that document that they can take on additional staff of they need to. I'd imagine many will erect a gazebo/marquee in the playground and use that for the space needed.

@Firefliess
No that was just before half-term. That was only children who had been sitting next to a positive test or were known to be a close contact. It wasn't the whole year-ds was most put out to be going in, but I believe between 3 positive tests (who were believed to be unconnected) it was 65% of the year sent home.
There's 8 lessons a day, option subjects so potentially different people they're next to each day, practical subjects may have group work ,plus registration, crowded school bus for many, close friends that they'll have spent lunch time with, it adds up quite quickly.

The whole year was only sent home in Mid November when it was clear it was transmitting at school (and there weren't enough teachers in either)

[quote MRex]What is it about these bloody mink? US, wild mink now catching covid... www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-55309269[/quote]
Maybe this explains your Kingston Upon Thames borough thoughts, there's a mink population there, and they're spreading it along the hogsmill to new malden etc.