Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

My powers of thought are obviously limited because I just thought track the location of every mobile phone, no other data, and show where they all are in real time, a constantly changing, dynamic picture. Retrofit to patterns of infection.
Let kids sign up to it, anonymity guaranteed, in return for looking at the changing map whenever they want. Maybe they could identify themselves. People are easily amused.

Re how many cases have genome sequencing done to get an idea what the pool was that the 1000 new variant samples were identified from. The Guardian reports 10% of all cases are sequenced.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/how-a-new-covid-strain-may-have-spread-virus-in-south-of-england

@borntobequiet

My powers of thought are obviously limited because I just thought track the location of every mobile phone, no other data, and show where they all are in real time, a constantly changing, dynamic picture. Retrofit to patterns of infection. Let kids sign up to it, anonymity guaranteed, in return for looking at the changing map whenever they want. Maybe they could identify themselves. People are easily amused.

From a tech point of view it's super easy by now. There is a low level bluetooth signal type that is used in IoT devices as well for years that allows for microbursts that are then registered. It doesn't drain batterry life, the standards are there,...etc.

The problem is legal. At the point of origin these codes have to contain some info on who and where. And that is what is causing the issue, even if later it is anonimized and then id data is deleted.

Back in March I was pushing for the idea to build tracking into a game and gamify* the experience but had no uptake from the company I worked for (or the client). And our own company just doesn't have this R&D money as we are tiny.
In effect pokemon go does this kind of thing and noone bats an eyelid. Use if for PH and have any level of gov involvement and everyone is up in arms. I will never understand. MIx + Google already knows anything they want, if they choose.
grrrr.

*I hate that word, it;s been so misused

Btw. Fitbit et al also do this and ppl have no issue with it. Why?
(personally when I was trialing a fitbit I did limit what it can broadcast and pick up, but I think I am way more paranoid on this front than normal ppl). I object more to commercial data gathering than for gov to data gather in a health crisis for research purposes. But each to their own I guess

Very interesting. I suppose you could say people don't immediately suspect Pokemon or Fb of hidden motives.

I thought it was easy to get round the data protection stuff by bunging a waiver at the end of the T&Cs and having a big I Agree button. Anyway, I’ll go back to lurking now! Thanks all those with knowledge, expertise and a willingness to share and explain.

Couple of charts I was updating this AM I thought might be appreciated here.

Continuing trend of increasing number of councils with rising cases. Stark change from two weeks ago. We now have 209 councils with cases rising week over week versus only 20 a fortnight ago.

All the underlying council data is on www.covidmessenger.com

I also attach the historical evolution of number of councils with rising cases (same chart as yesterday, just updated) and someone here yesterday suggested looking at the same chart but with more recent dates only which I have put together and is also attached. You can clearly see the effect of lockdown.

You can check your council's number of cases on www.covidmessenger.com

As an aside preliminary data suggests some of the councils local to me are about to double their daily case rate. Really worrying. Hopefullly isolated (and contained) outbreaks and not an overall trend.

@DecemberStar
haha! (sorry)
Who on earth can be that naive?
I actually know what I'm getting from my husband/kid (vaguely) because:

1. internet comes in at one point only and whole household uses the same IP address just disseminated through wifi. This is fairly common.
2. They search for something on Google > i start to get ads on FB or any site that uses Google ads (most of the sites have that as an underlying ads engine) and voila > I start getting ads about hand mixers, specific puzzles, specific type of books, japanese knives, etc.

Anybody can spot the correlation in a second. And yet they don't "suspect" hidden motives - eg these companies passing on (selling) their information? Really?

I make a point to search for gifts in private window or from my phone on mobile connection not house wifi. And my boys do complain about that :)
I have not yet spoken to anyone else who does this...

@borntobequiet
I wish it was that easy :) There are rules around it, so you can't exactly ask users to "sign away their souls" and then say: well, they agreed to it.

It is not impossible, even not really hard, you have a point, but even if so, if it gets picked up by eg DM or the likes it can be blown out of proportion. It's about appearances. The fact that they have agreed to it means nothing. I've seen a couple of products tank because of it. They did everything right. People actively agreed. But then argued that they didn't read it. And by law that's the end of it, but because of perception, these products failed to achieve enough uptake. Because they were deemed to be not handling data correctly. When in reality everything was above the line. Go figure.

Plus you have to have really good lawyers putting that piece of text together to be airtight. I sure as hell wouldn't want to write even the -1 draft of it.

@littleowl1

I also attach the historical evolution of number of councils with rising cases (same chart as yesterday, just updated) and someone here yesterday suggested looking at the same chart but with more recent dates only which I have put together and is also attached. You can clearly see the effect of lockdown.

You can check your council's number of cases on www.covidmessenger.com

As an aside preliminary data suggests some of the councils local to me are about to double their daily case rate. Really worrying. Hopefullly isolated (and contained) outbreaks and not an overall trend.

Could you overlay the daily case figures on this chart? Cases seem to be less "dippy" than this chart. (Wow, I was really scientific there, but hope you get what I'm meaning)

And thank you! :) in general for all your work on the graphs and collating info

Yes I will - will prob be tomorrow. I think its just the axis scale.

They've just announced that rapid testing will occur in all secondary schools from jan for staff and pupils.

Which is positive.

I would argue they should in all sen schools due to the high number of adults and close pupil working relationships.

Looking at onward transmission rates, sen schools are proportionally the same rates as secondary.

@NeurotrashWarrior

They've just announced that rapid testing will occur in all secondary schools from jan for staff and pupils.

Which is positive.

I would argue they should in all sen schools due to the high number of adults and close pupil working relationships.

Looking at onward transmission rates, sen schools are proportionally the same rates as secondary.

That’s great!

I wonder if anyone better at maths than me could confirm?

I looked at the transmission charts and roughly how many secondary and Sen schools there were in the U.K.

Also sen schools on average have an older age group of staff. Usually as they become uniquely experienced practitioners in a "niche" way and stay where they are.

Neuro where did you see re all secondary schools? Can’t see on google but not sure if you meant on radio / tv

Yes, very different to the pm headlines!

'Huge expansion' of secondary school Covid tests in January www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-55318628

I wonder if it will be in hotspot areas, which will basically mean London tbh.

World at 1, not PM.

Thanks for linking

That’s good to read

testing in primary schools could begin later in the term, said the Department for Education.

I still argue that sen schools should be given the same as secondary. To be missed would be appalling. Sen schools have really suffered and many have had to fully close, many pupils do not cope well.

Yes you’re right they absolutely should be

"Learning disabled people have been forgotten about in this pandemic"

A mum just on world at one.

So many in care homes not included in the vaccination and testing regimes.

Here’s the govt announcement
www.gov.uk/government/news/secondary-schools-and-colleges-to-get-weekly-coronavirus-testing

Every secondary school and college in England, as well as special schools and alternative provision, will have access to rapid coronavirus testing from January to help keep staff and students as safe as possible and in education, the government has announced today (15 December).

Building on the success of testing pilots in schools and colleges over the past few months, from January all staff in secondary schools and colleges will be eligible for weekly rapid tests as part of an initial rollout.

Students will be eligible for daily testing for seven days if they are identified as a close contact of someone who has tested positive. Under current guidelines, up to a whole school bubble has to self-isolate if one student or staff member tests positive. From January, those in the same bubble not need to self-isolate if they agree to be tested once a day. This will improve attendance and ensure young people can benefit from face-to-face teaching as much as possible.

Staff will also be eligible for daily testing if they are identified as a close contact. Roughly one in three people have the virus without symptoms so could be spreading the disease unknowingly. Asymptomatic testing helps to identify positive cases more quickly, and break chains of transmission.

Primary schools will then be supported to roll out testing as quickly as possible over the spring term.