Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

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Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

@sirfredfredgeorge
I should not be surprised that we have mink in London. But I am :)

Weren't the mink in London ones that animal rights activists released from mink farms some years back? Or descends of them I guess. I doubt that wild mink come into a lot of contact with humans though, so suspect there must be a better explanation for the rise in cases in London!

Wow, me too! As if the foxes don't cause enough bother.

Ok. Let's blame the mink for the London variant too then.

It was thought to be pangolin originally at the source of covid. Does anyone know enough zoology to say why mink and pangolin are similar despite not looking it?

@Firefliess - popular walking paths and excrement on shoes is one contact, failure to wash hands could be another.

@Mrex - enough contract that it could plausibly spread from minks to humans on maybe one occasion if all the conditions were right - which might be how it jumped the species barrier originally. But not in terms of causing large numbers of infection s - at least personally I'm pretty sure I have more close contact with other humans than with mink - and there's plenty of infected humans I could catch it off!

Actually it would have to be at least a double infection and likely more; human to mink, probably mink to other mink and then mink back to a different human. I don't like letting them off the hook, but we might have to this time.

Perhaps we could factor the minks into the Christmas rules @Mrex - you can have up to three households as long as you don't have any minks in your house

I'd like a larger than 2m distance from mink please. Cuter in a photo than dripping with wet mud and showing claws.

Minkston upon Thames.

I once saw two mink playing by the Avon in Warwickshire. They were very pretty creatures and looked inquisitive and intelligent, kept a close eye on me as I rowed by.

If you meet for a public shag by the river, is that called minking?

Kinky minky.
We may be diverging from the data focus of this thread 😆

I haven't like Mink since reading the Dark is Rising series. They're on the evil side.

Crikey, there's loads of them, here's a data link for the thread title : www.gwct.org.uk/research/long-term-monitoring/national-gamebag-census/mammal-bags-comprehensive-overviews/american-mink/:
United Kingdom 108,750
England 46,750
Scotland 52,250
Wales 9,750
N Ireland no estimate

@MRex

Crikey, there's loads of them, here's a data link for the thread title : www.gwct.org.uk/research/long-term-monitoring/national-gamebag-census/mammal-bags-comprehensive-overviews/american-mink/: United Kingdom 108,750 England 46,750 Scotland 52,250 Wales 9,750 N Ireland no estimate

For a moment I thought that was missing figures 🤣

0.2% half done; 130,000 vaccinated in week 1: www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55332242.
So we're 1/1000th of the day to being fully and completely clear. Reduce by kids not at risk, whatever % actually is enough for herd immunity (discarding those who won't have the vaccine), whatever % have had it already... It's going to take some time, hopefully this will speed up lots with care homes and GPs getting involved.

I hope it speeds up, some people will be needing boosters before everyone has it at that rate. I'm assuming we will need boosters. Then there will be flu vaccines for next winter.

There might be light at the end of the tunnel but it's starting to look like a long tunnel.

Yes I'd certainly hope they speed up a bit! Should do though, with GPs getting going this week. And are they doing those mass immunisation centres too alongside? (Or am I confused here, and that's what the GPs are doing?) I've struggled to find any clear plans from government about target numbers by site - possibly because they've not yet got all GPs signed up, or possibly because they've not yet approved the Oxford vaccine, which will make up a large number of the doses. Only some allegedly leaked plans by the telegraph a few weeks back. I want to see a plan, with numbers!

They currently only have 800,000 doses as I understand it? So presumably that limits them to 400,000 people until more Pfizer arrives/Oxford is approved.

Personally I think once Oxford is approved that's when things will be able to really get going. I'd expect mass vaccination centres to be up and running for that, probably not feasible with Pfizer given its instability/limited supply.

I'm slightly annoyed at this vaccination. Just by logic... you have 2 vaccines. P. is 95% efficacy and AZ is 70%.
The vaccines -imo- should be disseminated based on who needs what level of protection and not blindly in a blanket.
E(C)V + HCP + Teachers (from the top of my head) need better protection than those who are less mobile/meet less ppl.
And yet -atm- it's let's give the best vaccine we know of tho the 87+ year old person. It makes no sense*.

It makes all the political sense and is great for tear inducing stories, but rationally it's wasting a proven very good solution. especially when we have no idea (we=ppl of the street, hope not gov) when the next batch will arrive.

Regulatory bodies have been saying that instead of the normal one-off approval process they have been involved and made it a step-by-step process. If so, then why the hell didn't they make AZ do their job better by flagging up really early that they data is shit/spotty?
If they would have done that, then there would be now a position where a rational decision could be made because not giving the P. wouldn't mean that we have no idea when something else will be available (as I think this is driving the selection process right now to some extent - pure from a PR prospect though).

*don't say I'm heartless, this is pure logic, not emotion. No, I don't wish old ppl harm,...blabla... but the "greater good" concept has to apply at a nation level.

And me personally: I'd be much happer and feel actually safe with the P. vaccine. I don't think a 70% efficacy is really enough for someone who's own autoimmune system is already destroying their own cells...
And this is not about wanting the best for me, me, me... it's again perfectly logical:
someone who has 20+ more years in the workforce and in a job type that is not solitary (eg: writer) it makes sense to think ahead 10-20 years....
For a 16yr old kid who has his whole life ahead and already has a 50% chance of having inherited an autoimmune problem, it makes sense to protect those with the higher efficacy vaccine.
Yes, this needs shitloads of planning, sifting through 67m data points, but let's be fair, with the right queries this is a matter of minutes to compile these lists. And then the cross check/human evaluation is a month or so, as it can be disseminated to the GPs who actually know these ppl or even to a separate body to evaluate. If algorithm is created good, than 90+% of the list will be accurate.

And this has been proven that covid over-mobilizes autoimmune system and creating the very severe cases in some instances.

Pretty good numbers for the vaccinations, and BBC are reporting that the 137,000 doesn’t include those vaccinated in the community by GPs and Nurses. NI Health Minister announced yesterday that vaccinations had begun in 54 care homes there, so that will make a massive difference to those people and their families, not sure if these will be included in the community numbers or 137,000.

@TheSun I'm wondering whether it's those issues that is causing the delay in approving the Oxford vaccine? Ie they are figuring out how to deal with vaccine that's available in large numbers sooner, but less effective than another vaccine? Personally I'd probably give the Oxford one to the 65-80 age group - who are the least likely to catch Covid (as they're not mostly in the workplace) but will benefit in particular from having less severe symptoms if they do. I'd try to give the Pfsiser one to keyworker groups who are most likely to be exposed - especially anyone working with under 16s who aren't going to be vaccinated and so will presumably go on catching (and spreading) it for some time.

@Firefliess
I think we are both thinking along the same line.
On other vacc threads whenever I said similar you can only imagine the irrational hate I got. People -en mass- are tearduct driven, not brains :(

...along the same lines