Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

Have you all seen the new area heat maps?

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=utla&areaName=Hackney%20and%20City%20of%20London

Incase the link doesn't work

Ah yes I see you have, sorry!

I think they're still reviewing the other tier allocations and might potentially move some areas down as per their original timetable - which was to review on the 16th (Wednesday), announce Thursday and implement from Saturday. My guess is they will move one or two areas down to Tier 2 - maybe Leeds, just go show that it can happen. I don't think they'll move anywhere else to tier 1.

I’d love to use mobile phones to track the social interactions of young people 15-19 both in and out of school.
I think that would be responsible for a high proportion of the recent spread of infection. The rest would be the end of lockdown and people reverting to pre-Christmas behaviour, shopping and socialising, even if less than usual.
Sorry, bad form to post speculation on the data thread, I know.

@Firefliess

What has happened to Wales? Zero cases yesterday, and today only half the number they had two days ago. Has their testing system completely fallen over? Labs been burned down by conspiracy theories?

I'm betting on some horrible backdating coming in the next few days when someone pushes the right button...

@borntobequiet

I’d love to use mobile phones to track the social interactions of young people 15-19 both in and out of school. I think that would be responsible for a high proportion of the recent spread of infection. The rest would be the end of lockdown and people reverting to pre-Christmas behaviour, shopping and socialising, even if less than usual. Sorry, bad form to post speculation on the data thread, I know.

Theoretically it's close to possible without privacy issues. Maybe not on school level - unless they have the school as a friend, but I think that's highly unlikely, but on a borough level. It's just a matter of money.

Terminus technicus is social listening.
All you have to do is buy data from sm companies for a hefty price, then analyse.

It would only yield results if

• young ones actually finalize meet date/time on sm and not in text

or

• post-analysis of "i've been with x" or I've been at x" + photos with their metadata. Since FB has tagging capacity (many years now) you can buy that data as well, so you don't even need to actually see the picture.

Last I've done this we did (4-5 yrs ago):

• quaker's oats campaign tracking and uptake of a new flavour + identification of the influencers
• testing of pepsi (or some related shit) new flavour ideas, but without actually running a campaign or competition
• listening for beauty stuff - that went above my head as I am so not interested
• listened for tea related chatter. Resulted in some bubbley (not bubble) tea as a new product. Can't remember if it survived or not.

At the end left because I got frustrated daily that we have this capacity and use it for A)more profit making when there is more than enough B) totally irrelevant stuff, when eg. medical usage/research would be much better use of our skills.

It's fascinating to learn what you can do (you personally and you as in "one") @TheSunIsStillShining !

Thank you :)

I'm going bonkers a bit, because I've been made redundant mid-october and my brain needs stimulation. I've designed a full country scale track/trace system in the meantime; some smart gadgets for public toilets (water regulation + showing water level so women actually wait until tank is full then flush then not so many clogging issues -- thus save on plumbing, cleaning and in general less gross. Kid designed the actual smart chip and led part.), but I've ran out of ideas so I jump on anything anyone says that is interesting :)

I thought the use of Facebook tagging was considered illegal under GDPR @TheSunIsStillShining, at least in the UK? At least, I thought it was mixed up with the various photo privacy assumptions - but I can't remember the case.

This was 4-5 years ago, hazy memories on the legal part. We used the following info - I think:
image has tagged person=yes
img has tagged place (geoloc info)=yes
number=x

Thinking back I don't know if we bought FB data or scraped it...
Twitter data we definitely bough, I was in charge of that.

All data that you can buy is anonimized and there is a limit to how narrow your search parameters can be to protect privacy.

Did a quick search - it looks like we scraped FB data most likely.

@MRex
It's good that you are calling me out on details. It's so easy to forget that many lurkers just read things on the net and take it for granted. So I'll try to be more precise. in general.

My teen DD and all her pals broadcast where they all are on the map on Snapchat...
The Scottish Govt have just started to encourage high school kids to download the Test and Protect app. Previously it was 16+ only.

I don't think you can use FB for tracking the 15-19 year olds you're suspecting of transmitting Covid - half the under 20s I know don't have FB at all and the other half hardly used it Definitely no tagging of friends that their parents will spot! . i know this from my stained efforts to track down DD's friends on FB to find out where she is when she's not come home on time on quite a few occasions

Instagram, maybe...

Yes Snapchat is how they all know where each other are. But it's got a level of privacy built in - I cannot use it to see where DD is unless she lets me (which she doesn't) So I'm not sure you could collect the data from large numbers of them - unless you were Snapchat of course, and had somehow obtained their consent to do that via some terms and conditions they've inadvertently signed up to maybe.

@lurker101 - I posted about Kingston a few pages back. There has been a missed big chain of infections in an area called Malden Manor, the cases actually looked to me to have crept down from the much smaller Wimbledon outbreak initially. Since then it's been spreading very fast in surrounding MSOA - in Kingston, but also in Merton and Sutton, right across St Heliers and now the spread has started in Mitcham. Malden Manor is quite a nice area, but it's right next to lots of bigger blocks of flats (really not the riverside expensive type) and more deprived areas. The most deprived MSOA have been growing more strongly since, though it's hard to tell if the case growth is literally following main roads or following deprivation.
If there's a new strain from Kent, perhaps someone in that area went on a trip.
Anyway, so a few main points: 1) Kingston has some deprived areas, there are several very distinct areas in the borough; 2) Cases are so far mostly in the east of Kingston not Kingston town centre, 3) the cause may have been missed early because there was a little outbreak in Chessington that has since faded away, 4) I haven't mentioned the Kingston uni students because I've no idea where they tend to live.

What is it about these bloody mink? US, wild mink now catching covid... www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-55309269

Thanks @mrex I’ll have a look back through the thread and see

@Firefliess
Good point about FB :) It's the old people's playground as I've heard. My son says it's for dinosaurs like me ....
re: tracking specific ppl. You can't do that with any SM. But if you can specify enough the relevant dataset you are looking for than I do see potential in potentially seeing patterns which could inform action or rules on a borough/msoa level maybe....
But given that I don't have the money to play around with these, I'll never know. :(

There's technology that's been invented that issues a bump notice if you're within 2 m of someone. It logs it into a map of the environment and obviously shows who you've come into contact with and where. You wear a little device. High bump areas can be identified and also high bump people.

is that the wifi signal thing train operators use to monitor passenger numbers?

I've heard of that technology being used in some workplaces @Neuro (not in the UK) But I think the software must have been compulsory for the staff - possibly auto downloaded onto corporate devices. I'm not sure it would work more widely unless you had very high uptake. The contact tracing app that the English government wanted to use initially would have allowed them to do some of the kind of analysis you're talking about - but was dropped in favour of the Apple/Google version partly because of privacy concerns about the government collecting all that data.

Latest data from the React study out today. www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/research-and-impact/groups/react-study/real-time-assessment-of-community-transmission-findings/

Not sure it tells us that much. Data is from second half of November, so already somewhat out of date. If you look at reported cases during that period they were falling for the first week and rising for the second, which I think is probably what was actually going on, rather than "levelling off" throughout, which is what the report says.

I know anecdotally from a friend who works for a large construction company that they all have to have a device with the 2m software on it, and it vibrates/sounds when they are too close to another worker. Would have though that would have been a good addition to the NHS app - if only to warn the user when they are too close rather than for surveillance purposes!

Yes I’ve heard of those too, the CEO was on CNBC a few months back talking about the technology (can’t remember the company name though) - Amazon were trialling them, and I believe some Ports use them too for safety

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/16/amazon-tests-wearable-social-distancing-device-for-warehouse-workers.html