Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

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Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

England 17,882 of which 5,322 are London. Grim figures that will only get worse once the results of the additional tests filter through.

Positives for Wales 1,228 so no catch-up?

Zoe emails you

Does anyone here think we'll end up in some kind of lockdown by end of Jan?

Yup

Visually this is interesting. Coming in from the outside in

Probably by mid Jan

For the cases confirmed so far in the seven days to 13th dec the rate for tier 2 authorities (including those moving up on Wednesday so still tier 2 for now) has just passed that for tier 3 authorities. With not far off the equivalent two days worth of cases still to be reported through.

@MarshaBradyo and possibly that outside in circle could be extended further - a visual widening into adjacent district areas would be interesting to see.

My council is just outside london and we have a rate which is lower than it was when we were in tier 1 pre lockdown. We are one of lowest in the country yet very close to some London boroughs with high cases. Doesn’t make any sense !

The table of cases in councils in England is updated on www.covidmessenger.com homepage.

I am deeply alarmed by the turnaround in a fortnight.

Two weeks ago we had 20 out of 315 councils in England with rising cases. Now we have 209 - two thirds.

I have followed Kent carefully and I have found the rapid rate of change puzzling - perhaps this new variant explains some of those increases.

Hopefully they will publish the names of the 60 councils identified as having the new variant. If anyone hears/sees it published please do tag me @littleowl1.

@tootyfruitypickle I think a lot of it is economics in London right now - the majority of the “outer London” areas are those with more key workers/deprivation/less work from home.
If you look at the “lighter red” in the map above, there will be a higher proportion of people working from home in places like Islington, Westminster, Kensington & Chelsea, Hammersmith, Richmond etc. Than those outer London boroughs with (sweeping generalisation) lower housing costs. A lot of the non-London boroughs that are near London have higher than average incomes and more work from home capability

But Kingston doesn’t fall into this category of deprivation.

Kingston is pretty crowded though. Council approved building of 1000s of luxury flats a few years ago. Also has students and pockets of deprivation and a very busy and popular shopping area.

True. I’m more often in the north bit, which is greener.

If it’s linked to schools, is that the difference somehow ? So no longer about people working outside the home but somehow it’s got into school communities ? I wonder if the variant is significant in that way.

I wonder if the London areas with high levels also have very oversubscribed and crowded schools / big schools .

@tootyfruitypickle

The decision to move up in tiers is not solely on cases per 100K rate.

A significant element is related to hospital capacity and admissions/covid occupancy trends in neighbouring councils

If the hospitals in neighbouring local councils are already at full covid capacity and patients are being diverted to hospitals in the next council, your council will then be put into a more precautionary lockdown to try and prevent hospitals being overwhelmed.

The following comments are merely anecdotal - information from various docs and nurses I spoke to a fortnight ago: two weeks ago Kent Medway hospitals covid beds were full, with overflow cases being sent to Maidstone Hosp. Maidstone Hosp was filling fast and Tunbridge Wells (Pembury) Hospital was bracing for Maidstone reaching capacity as they were poised to take the overflow - despite the fact that Tunbridge Wells had one of the lowest case rates in the country (which TBH IMO doesn't say much, but nonetheless). Many were furious that T Wells was in tier 3 but having spoken with NHS staff and hearing the imminent situation they faced, I truly understood why the govt had T Wells in tier 3.

The decision to move tiers encompasses a far wider range of criteria than just cases/100K rates. It's really frustrating as we don't always have access to the full extent of the data/info they are planning around.

@oneglassandpuzzled no it doesn’t, but I think it’s the exception rather than the rule, I think theres been a missed outbreak in Kingston, there’s something odd about their figures that doesn’t fit the pattern, which makes me think something else has come into play. (Anecdata) Incidentally I was there over the weekend, and there were a lot of large (unmasked) groups of teenagers/young adults around which surprised me, not sure if there has been a lot of spread between these groups. There was a noticeable difference (to me) in amount of teenagers/young adults out compared to where I am normally socialising in London boroughs with lower figures. Obviously this may have absolutely nothing to do with the figures, but I did notice it.

Oh that’s interesting lurker.

The decision to move tiers encompasses a far wider range of criteria than just cases/100K rates. It's really frustrating as we don't always have access to the full extent of the data/info they are planning around

@littleowl1 the government have said they will publish the data upon which tiers are reviewed, each fortnight.

What has happened to Wales? Zero cases yesterday, and today only half the number they had two days ago. Has their testing system completely fallen over? Labs been burned down by conspiracy theories?

@Augustbreeze that’s hugely helpful. Thank you. I will look out for it. Hoping to have time later to see the full Hancock briefing later on playback. Have only get the headlines thus far. Thank you!

[quote lurker101]@oneglassandpuzzled no it doesn’t, but I think it’s the exception rather than the rule, I think theres been a missed outbreak in Kingston, there’s something odd about their figures that doesn’t fit the pattern, which makes me think something else has come into play. (Anecdata) Incidentally I was there over the weekend, and there were a lot of large (unmasked) groups of teenagers/young adults around which surprised me, not sure if there has been a lot of spread between these groups. There was a noticeable difference (to me) in amount of teenagers/young adults out compared to where I am normally socialising in London boroughs with lower figures. Obviously this may have absolutely nothing to do with the figures, but I did notice it.[/quote]
In SW London Kingston is the goto borough for big art supplies (proper) and game things (games workshop, tabletop, not videogames).
I'm guessing these are there, because there is a big enough population to actually bring in enough money... Games workshop closed it's shops in Covent GArden and Putney, but the Kingston is always full when there are events.
I'm just kinda underpinning from another observation that there might be a bigger young population there....

Let’s hope the authorities are sleuthing like we are!

@oneglassandpuzzled

Let’s hope the authorities are sleuthing like we are!

Don't hold your breath...

There's a lot about people going from tier 2 to tier 3, but is anybody going from tier 2 to tier 1, do you know?