Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

The Manchester 15-19s rise will be predominantly first year university students taking rapid tests before Christmas break, they don't really represent community transmission.

To clarify Bernard Jenkin just claimed 2 million people live in Essex. ONS most recent estimate just under 1.5m.

Still Brexiteers and reality.

Oops politically motivated comment, please disregard.

The dashboard isnt update yet, right? Im worried my browser has cached an old page. Has anyone seen the dashboard updated for today yet?

@boys3 maybe we can “gift” part of east London to Essex and put London back into tier 2? 😂

@littleowl1

The dashboard isnt update yet, right? Im worried my browser has cached an old page. Has anyone seen the dashboard updated for today yet?

no - based on previous (cynical) experience, it won't update until after the News conference at 6. During which Hancock will say exactly what he's just said. Again.

Sorry, indoor leisure I meant “fun things” not gyms. And yes theatres have been open, there will be a lot of west end shows, ballet and pantomimes that need to close now.

There are some very random things on the full list of “entertainment” .

Closed entertainment venues and visitor attractions:

indoor play centres and areas, including inflatable parks and soft play centres and areas (other than for people who have a disability)
trampolining parks (other than for elite athletes, people with a disability, supervised activities for children and for formal education or training purposes)
casinos
bingo halls
bowling alleys
indoor skating rinks (other than for elite athletes, professional dancers and choreographers, people with a disability, supervised activities for children and for formal education or training purposes)
amusement arcades and adult gaming centres
nightclubs and adult entertainment venues
laser quests and escape rooms
cinemas, theatres concert halls – other than drive-in events, broadcasting performances, training or rehearsal
circuses
snooker and pool halls (other than for elite athletes)

At the following outdoor entertainment venues, the indoor attractions must close:

zoos, safari parks, and aquariums
other animal attractions including farms
water parks and aqua parks
model villages
museums, galleries and sculpture parks
botanical or other gardens, biomes or greenhouses
theme parks, fairgrounds and funfairs
adventure playgrounds and parks, including ziplining
visitor attractions at film studios,
heritage sites such as castles, stately homes or heritage railways
landmarks including observation wheels and viewing platforms

Oh that's a great tip Patricia, thank you. Also saves me from sitting here clearing my cache every 5 mins!! Thank you!

Can't seem to link but this graph suggests population of Essex was 1.842 million in 2019. Why would ONS be so different though?

Essex definitely just under 1.5m people. 1,489,189 to be precise from the ONS mid year population estimate published in June 2020.

The dashboard uses the ONS estimates to calculate the rates per 100,000

@InMySpareTime that would be an inaccurate assumption. Less than 20 lateral flow positives in total in Manchester in the last week, and slightly fewer again in the week before that.

Age heat map is now added to the dashboard cases area.
Need to filter to England, or to an English region or local authority to see it

.

[quote boys3]@InMySpareTime that would be an inaccurate assumption. Less than 20 lateral flow positives in total in Manchester in the last week, and slightly fewer again in the week before that.[/quote]
@boys3 would you mind sharing where you get the lateral flow data from?
Trafford has suddenly been up the last two days and I have a suspicion that it is students registered at the wrong address again - the last time they “corrected” this Trafford was one of the boroughs with the most tests removed...

@MRex I think it was you who was asking about breastfeeding and vaccine? Just come across this thread on twitter (with some linked threads) mobile.twitter.com/FutureDocs/status/1338487976842711045

In essence sounds likes FDA have said breastfeeding/pregnant women can have vaccine. Will be interesting to see if we follow suit.

Just seen on Twitter that dashboard should be updated by 7pm

It depends how you define Essex. There are several local authorities and then the geographical county. The county of Essex includes those living under the control of Essex County Council plus those living in the unitary authorities of Thurrock and Southend on Sea. Nearly 400,000 live in the unitary authorities so that might make the difference?

Presumably we're expecting quite a high number of cases today, as the Welsh have a day to catch up on, so will be reporting two days worth?

Anyone been asked for a test by the zoe app?
How do they contact you to ask?

@Firefliess

Presumably we're expecting quite a high number of cases today, as the Welsh have a day to catch up on, so will be reporting two days worth?

Ah yes - forgotten that - Wales could easily add 4k+ on their own today....

@Witchend they emailed me in July, to request that I test to help them with researching symptoms (I had a headache and sore throat, tested negative)

Thanks. I was wondering if I'd missed something as I've not been sent.

dutch fco equivalent advises not to travel abroad for leisure until mid march.

Finally updated. UK figures:

20,263 cases
232 deaths

[quote MRex]@Jenasaurus - ok, my 14th Jan State-Of-Covid prediction for you, but to play fair everyone needs to do the same including you:

1. Cases 32k/day holding fairly static after some bumpy ups and downs,
2. Death rates just about stable at 500/day and everyone wondering when they will fall because 80+ vaccination is at 65% plus all care homes completing by end Jan; lots of reminders that it's deaths within 28 days of diagnosis and lots of concern that Pfizer vaccine transfer to care homes wasn't stable, think government are trying to kill people age obviously should have originally sent the Oxford vaccine instead.
3. South West and East of England having cases rising very fast while they're falling elsewhere hence the "static", plus a resurgence in just one of the badly hit northern cities (probably Manchester) and Kent (having had one peak and down, then rising again)
4. Major flu outbreak affecting NHS capacity and everyone wondering how it's transmitting.
5. New different viral strain detected in London causing slight difference i(n transmission / timeframe / severity / ...?) And covered by vaccine immunity from only some of the vaccines
6. New viral strain coming through from Africa that has major differences, nobody knows if this will affect vaccines or not and borders closing quickly
7. Vaccine postcode lottery is a big debate as some areas are already vaccinating 70+ and inviting CEV, while others have only done a small percentage of 80+.[/quote] Thank you for this very detailed prediction for a 14th Jan

I dont have your level of knowledge of data or expertise so my own prediction will be very much based on a gut feeling and reading the news, and watching your charts, data etc and others on MN too.

I beleive that on the 14th Jan we will have close to 40k cases that day and 800 deaths as a result of the relaxed 5 days over christmas. I think that following on from that and assuming the restrictions are back in place for the Tiers it will eventually reduce the cases over the next 2 weeks to 28-30k a day and 550 deaths. Towards the end of Jan and beginning of Feb the evidence of the vaccine will take effect and the number of deaths will be under 200 a day but cases still 15 - 20k a day. I hope i am wrong

I'll admit I thought it was going to be far higher.