Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

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Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

And in Herts the districts that are going.into Tier 3 are Broxbourne; Hertsmere; Three Rivers and Watford.

But not Dacorum

@boys3

And in Herts the districts that are going.into Tier 3 are Broxbourne; Hertsmere; Three Rivers and Watford.

But not Dacorum

is that because they behave with more decorum? ;-)

@PatriciaHolm
Thanks for clarifying. At least now I know that the theory part of my math was correct :) I just generalized more.
Also the ONS covid death number is 63k. Wouldn't you want to use that?

@TheSunIsStillShining no I don’t work for the NHS, it’s just the regular access you get to view your own records online through the GP. I was pleasantly surprised to see it had filtered through

that’s my working theory patricia

I think now it may have been the coded messages in all any fucker ‘s .s

[quote lurker101]@TheSunIsStillShining no I don’t work for the NHS, it’s just the regular access you get to view your own records online through the GP. I was pleasantly surprised to see it had filtered through[/quote]
okay, good info!
since we moved (3 yrs) I don't have access to my records, so couldn't check. Up until now it wasn't a priority to sort it, and now I don't want to burden our GP with such an administrative thing. They have their hands full I'm sure.

Regarding the new variation - is there any data yet to suggest that this new variant is disproportionately affecting a younger age group? It would go some way to explaining why the East London boroughs and Essex areas bordering them continued to rise throughout the recent lockdown.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@PatriciaHolm
Thanks for clarifying. At least now I know that the theory part of my math was correct :) I just generalized more.
Also the ONS covid death number is 63k. Wouldn't you want to use that?[/quote]
That's UK - the ONS figure is for England, so I was using the England population and deaths.

@PatriciaHolm
so many years here and so many months on this thread and I still forget that british people actually look at England/Scotland/Wales/NI separately and not UK. To me UK full stop :) my bad.

New variant found that may be spreading faster. BBC News - 'New variant' of coronavirus identified - Hancock
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55308211

Sounds like they don't know a lot yet, but this could be behind the rise in cases that happened first in Swale, then Medway, then spread into East London in particular.

I'm reading up on T3.
What the hell difference will it make?
retail: open; sports=open as in T2
schools=open.
No mixing... as in many will give a fuck....
hospitality closed - good, but I don't think it's enough at this point?
indoor sports=open

Is it just me or does this not make sense?

@boys3
did you ever look at how areas fared when being put in T3? Does it work even a little?

@Firefliess

New variant found that may be spreading faster. BBC News - 'New variant' of coronavirus identified - Hancock www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55308211

Sounds like they don't know a lot yet, but this could be behind the rise in cases that happened first in Swale, then Medway, then spread into East London in particular.

Thanks for the link Firefliess.

Wonder if it's a milder, but more infectious strain. Would that actually be good news? I'm sure there was something like this in the Spanish flu.

Indoor sports are closed in tier 3 except for under 18s, elite and disabled athletes. No fitness classes allowed

Theatres, cinemas, bowling and other indoor leisure closed too.

GM and most other tier 3 areas are falling so it does seems to work

I’m not surprised it has impact. When we moved from lockdown to tier 2 it was like a spring. People take the opportunity to use what is open. Us too, so not remarking negatively.

@ceeveebee

Indoor sports are closed in tier 3 except for under 18s, elite and disabled athletes. No fitness classes allowed

Theatres, cinemas, bowling and other indoor leisure closed too.

GM and most other tier 3 areas are falling so it does seems to work

Indoor leisure eg gyms, swimming are open in T3.

What the hell is the difference with 7 ppl doing yoga and 7 ppl on machines in about similar conditions?

Did theaters even open? Are ppl really going to cinemas? (I haven't been for 5 years so really don't know if it's still a thing)

Bowling specifically mentioned? Is it really that big of a thing? I don't even know if there are any in sw london.... could just be my ignorance.

Why not close schools? the sheer number of ppl in/out of schools I think surpasses the number of those visiting the now restricted access places. What am I missing?

Some councils have tried, along with Khan, but Starmer and Cons are for schools open. Fair enough imo.

@MarshaBradyo

Some councils have tried, along with Khan, but Starmer and Cons are for schools open. Fair enough imo.

Stupidity at it's best. imo.

This made me smile:

First question at the WHO press briefing comes from a Mexican journalist asking if Santa Claus will be able to deliver presents this year, being “very old” and overweight.

Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO technical lead for Covid-19, says:

"I understand that concern for Santa because he is of older age... but I can tell you that Santa Claus is immune to this virus. We had a brief chat with him and he is doing very well. Mrs Claus is doing very well and they are very busy right now, but he is immune. We have heard from a number of leaders across the world who have told us that they have restricted, or relaxed, the quarantine measures for Santa to enter the airspace, so he will be able to deliver presents to children."

It's not the first time she was truly human :)

I couldn’t disagree more. But can’t wait for Khan’s next election. Has annoyed me today.

At least Starmer is a better Labour representative.

Anyway back to data. Glad they got overruled.

@Thesun I think the main difference with tier 3 is the closure of pubs and restaurants. Even if people have been obeying the rules and only going out with others from their household (doubtful imo) they can't help but be at some risk of catching Covid from others in the same pub. Sitting at a nearby table for several hours is enough to put you at risk - we know that.

Re this new strain. I don't think there's any evidence yet on whether it is milder than the normal strain. But it is possible that it's milder because one of the ways that a virus becomes better at spreading its by becoming less serious and so better at going undetected. By no means certain though - it could be a strain with atypical symptoms (not triggering tests under our current rules), or simply more infectious. It has been the case for several weeks though that the rise in cases in London was not matched by such an increase in hospital admissions. I think most people assumed this was because of London's younger population, but it would be interesting to compare an age-adjuated expected hospitalisation rate with other areas.

The thing I want to know is whether this 1,000 cases of the new strain is out of all the tests ever conducted - or whether they only test a small sample for strain - and if so what size of sample? If it's out of all the cases, then it's a small number and cannot be the main factor behind the rise in cases. If it was 1,000 out of the last 2,000 they tested, then it's really widespread!

Yes good question @Firefliess .

I wondered whether tier 3 is effective not particularly because of tighter restrictions but because it frightens people into greater compliance and care?

@TheSunIsStillShining the difficulty is in my view that the tiers only came into effect December 2nd - although that seems a lifetime ago. So with incubation period it’s probably less than a week of new cases since the tiers started.

I can say that at the beginning of lockdown overall the Tier 2 councils rate was just over 140 per 100,000 and Tier 3 close to 360.

At the end of lockdown Tier 2 overall just under 125 and Tier 3 just under 190.

By 9 December Tier 2 past 170 whilst Tier 3 up very slightly to just under 195.

But since end of lockdown half the Derbyshire districts still on a downward trajectory, but the other half showing a week on week increase.

Nottinghamshire came down across the board during lockdown, now 4/7 moving upwards, the other three still falling.

Majority in the north east - all tier 3 - still falling

North west the likes of Blackburn, Bolton, Bury still falling, very slight edging up in Manchester , Oldham, Salford. Manchester shows a big increase in the 15-19s but Tameside, Rochdale show big week on week falls.

It’s a mixed picture

In other breaking news an extra half million people found in Essex