Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

Greater Manchester was put into tier 3 post lockdown with a rate of 166 on 2 December and failing by 30% a week.

Gtr Manchester's numbers were already falling off a cliff when it was put into Tier 3

I’m interested in how they’re counting the lateral flow tests of HCPs that are now done at home (we have a supply to test ourselves twice a week). Presumably if one of us came back positive that would be recorded, but are they counting all the negatives? Are they just trusting that everyone is doing it?

Let's just remember it's not just numbers per 100,000 that determine tier. It's the over 60s and nhs capacity too

I really hope we see some tier 3s going to tier 2 next week. And some go the other way!!

Much as it pains me London is quite a complex picture. The graph plots the rate for each Borough on 1st November as compared with the current position so anything above the line has deteriorated. We know in London there are some real extremes, particularly on the eastern side of city. 3 boroughs have actually improved, and a number are not that far different from where they were at the start of Nov.

The tier 3 areas in the North West have without exception, as the second graph shows, moved in the right direction as compared with the 1st Nov position. And in many cases from some stratospherically high levels.

but the overall gap between the Tiers 2 and 3 continues to close - w/e 13th is obviously in progress so the rates will obviously increase

@boys3

the other slight oddity, whilst I'm in a heightened state of rantiness, is:

Release references 1.5 million lateral flow tests already issued as part of the DoPH programme; and presumably more on top of that unless all LFTs had to go through that programme.

Yet the dashboard shows a cumulative figure of c.550,000 LFTs so far.

Now whilst there is always going to be a lag between issue and use a gap of almost 1,000,000 doesn't sound quite right. To me at least.

And now another 1.6 million to be issued, so that dashboard figure presumably will start rising quite quickly

NHS here.

I've been issued with a box of 25 tests, of which I've used 4 so far. It will take me 3 months (2 a week) to finish the box. So I can totally believe that there's a lot more out there than used.

I have to report every test, positive or negative, through a web form. I assume someone is collecting the data.

In terms of utility, my clinical team has had one positive result already. We're waiting on confirmation with PCR. But that's potentially one asymptomatic but infected individual who isn't treating patients because of these tests. Even if they miss 50%, that in itself is a win.

Motorina thanks for that. I can see it would take a while to work through your supply - something replicated across numerous health teams no doubt. As you say catching any asymptomatic colleague makes a potentially life saving difference. I hope you and your team know that there are millions of us who have huge respect and admiration for the work you are doing.

Hope you don't mind me asking, what does a lateral flow test involve? is it the same swab of nose and throat but gets analysed differently?

The weekly positivity does, although some of these paint a less than rosy picture.

Shall we get the worst out the way?

Here's London

and to counter-balance the capital the South West

East of England - much, though not all of Essex not great

South East

East Mids

West Mids

North West

Yorkshire and Humber, and the North East

@Quarantino this is from the about the data section of the dashboard.

Lateral flow device virus tests that test for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 virus. These are swab tests that give results in less than an hour, without needing to go to a laboratory. Lateral flow device tests have been used in trials of mass testing in schools, universities and care homes, and have been available for those who live or work in Liverpool for a two-week period from 6 November 2020. Lateral flow device test data are currently available for England only.

Home pregnancy tests are a lateral flow test. I think they are essentially the tests where you put a drop of liquid at one end and it travels up the mediumr until it hits an substance it will react with if it's positive. If that makes sense. They seem to be swabbing students on news so presumably that then gets transferred to the test somehow

Apparently Gove is pushing for London boroughs to be treated individually and only the higher ones be put in tier 3.

If they do this there will be a riot after they refused to treat the different council areas of big counties such as Derbyshire as separate entities.

But hey, London is special isn’t it. Some politicians are arguing that the London economy must be protected at all costs because the rest of the country depends on it. I don’t know how they can say that with a straight face when being happy to let businesses in rural areas with low rates go under because they’ve been rammed into tier 3 because of rates in a town 40 miles away!

@JacobReesMogadishu I agree, it's absurd to claim the rest of the country relies on London's economy and that our own micro economy isn't important.

Both DH and I have had our earning capacity horribly affected by local Covid restrictions. It's grossly unfair that the hard times imposed on us are seen to be too harsh for London!

London and SW are an interesting contrast, London all tier 2, SW tiers 1, 2 and 3 but not one area in the SW is higher than the lowest in London. It is hard to understand although I know the ages and NHS also come into it. It does make you wonder how fair NHS provision is round the country.

I don't think the map of cases supports that for London. If cases were only in East London then ok. Not much different than the artificial borders with Kent and Essex, it's just where to draw the line because it's a huge area. It can't work with bits and bobs of West, South and North London though because people move between areas (the same argument as for previous counties and boroughs).

@JacobReesMogadishu

There's a lot of push from MPs countrywide for this to happen across all tiers. It's not just a London thing

It was one thing that MPs had real issue through and they agreed to support the gov in the vote with the understanding that this would be reviewed going forward

Today's update on latest cases in each council in England is live:

www.covidmessenger.com/