Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

On the lateral flow tests - it seems to me that they're a good idea if you're testing people who are asymptomatic and will otherwise be doing something anyway that puts them in contact with lots of people - eg health staff or school students during term time. Even if you only catch 50% of the positive cases, this is useful if it enables you to get those people not to go to work or school and isolate.

What's more worrying is using them for people who are likely to use a positive test result to have close contact that they wouldn't otherwise have had - so care home visitors, or possibly students (both uni ones and secondary age) at the start of the holidays when they're about to make decisions over how much social contact to have. In these situations the risks of false negatives giving false confidence seem to me to outweigh the benefits of picking up some of the positive cases.

I meant use a negative test result to do something more risky, obviously.

A bit strange to launch the mass testing now, 4 months after restrictions were first put in place, when a lot of those areas have already got down to low rates... Trafford 85, Derbyshire Dales 76...shame this wasn’t done 4 months ago when it was needed

@ceeveebee To be fair I don't think they had the technology or lab capacity to launch mass testing 4 months back. The lateral flow tests are new, and lab testing capacity has been steadily increasing, but as we all know, fell over during September when it couldn't meet demand.

@Fireflies anecdotal evidence is that several doctors in my sister's hospital are thought to have had it a second time. Many cases of shingles ( silent covid) . Some have been off for weeks. This isn't being reported as many hospitals have not been testing regularly.

Fair enough. Probably very simplistic but when you look at tests conducted vs capacity there appears to have been a lot of unused capacity during July/August and then November. A better targeting of this to the areas that needed it most could have driven rates down much faster. Test centres were actually closed at weekends during August in some parts of Lancashire and GM when we were first put under restrictions

My tier 3 area isn’t getting extra testing, and this appears to be because my local authority hasn’t yet “put in a proposal” - presumably a proposal for how it’s going to administer the tests. I wonder what the government plan is for reducing cases in areas where the local authority is a bit useless?

@ceeveebee I think some of the spare "capacity" during July and August was a bit fanciful - as became quite clear when the system fell over even as they went on reporting a "capacity" figure in excess of the number of tests done. You're right about the last month or two though - the stated capacity is very much higher than the number of tests done, so they ought to be using it better. I suspect they're nervous about a lot of people at once getting themselves tested prior to seeing family at Christmas, either paying privately or by claiming to have symptoms, so will wait to get that out the way before announcing any large scale mass testing using lab capacity. Though maybe I'm crediting the government with more sense than is due here!

@teta

Dies anyone not think the waves are being caused due to the antibodies wearing off after approx. 6 months. London was hit badly earlier on in the first wave, so therefore developed a level of herd immunity. But this has by now has worn off, causing a second wave. The north west is currently going down due to the same reason.

I also think weather has a huge influence . It's been pretty cold for the last couple of weeks.

I don't think enough people actually had it in the first wave to make a major difference. You need 70-80% to have had it to get herd immunity, I don't think even the most optimistic thoughts on that have put it even at 20% in any area.

However I think the next few months may be interesting on the antibodies wearing off, because although obviously they didn't test everyone in the first wave, if it is only 6 months immunity we should start seeing more people getting it for the second time.

London I think the slower upturn has simply been due to footfall in the capital.
I drive over a major road into London every morning. In normal times, in the morning, it's congested slow probably 3/5 or 4/5 weekdays on the way in. Completely stopped 1/5 days and closed entirely about once a month.
The way out is moving freely.

At the end of the day it's the other way round.

However since Lockdown I have once (last week) seen it slow in the morning -that was due to an accident. It's been freely running every day except that. I'd even go as far as saying people coming out of London typically is more in the morning than people going in.
And the reverse in the evening.

So assuming this correlates with other commuting areas, I'd say that a lot of people haven't gone back to work regularly in London. Equally well a lot of people I know who'd spend days in London, eating out/theatre/shopping haven't gone this year. So the number of potential spreaders must be hugely down. I suspect that has effected them not rising more.
I do wonder if the latest rise might be due in at least part to Christmas Shopping. But then our area is rising too and no one would come here for that. We were low in the first wave too, so it can't be entirely due to commuters bringing it out from London.

I have also noticed the commuters to London haven’t returned. The A3 used to be far, far busier in March than it is now, although the traffic has increased since the summer.

Thanks for the link about enhanced testing P&H. Good to see a smidgen of integrity has been found at the DoH.

However as already pointed out things have moved on rapidly, that list in the same as the original 67 submissions of interest published a couple of weeks ago.

I’m not sure of the value of the bidding system. The necessary data to make a judgement on need and priority is already there, but instead let’s

• spend time and resource developing a bidding process,
• create a competitive environment for local councils some who may well be better resourced than others to complete the no doubt Byzantine bidding process
• have some witless wonders in Whitehall who most likely could not find Wythenshaw, Worksop, Wetwang, or Wansbeck on a map, undertake some sort of assessment and scoring of these bids
• communicate, or quite possibly not, the outcome back to each Council
• finally several weeks later possibly issue some tests to these areas.

The definition of dystopia

The bidding system is entirely symptomatic of the attitude Central government has towards local government in this country @boys. They don't consider local authorities to be a form of democratically elected government at all, who could and should be trusted to make their own decisions over how to use additional testing. Instead they see local authorities as pseudo businesses who must be made to compete for funding with targets set centrally to ensure they don't waste resources. And in this instance it matters more than ever because delays cause the situation to move on, meaning what is required may change. The areas that get these tests may not be the ones that need them most in two weeks time, and it might be the case that rates among secondary aged children die down over Christmas so the tests would be better used for some other group. But local authorities won't be able to use them for other groups, having bid for them for secondary students.

the other slight oddity, whilst I'm in a heightened state of rantiness, is:

Release references 1.5 million lateral flow tests already issued as part of the DoPH programme; and presumably more on top of that unless all LFTs had to go through that programme.

Yet the dashboard shows a cumulative figure of c.550,000 LFTs so far.

Now whilst there is always going to be a lag between issue and use a gap of almost 1,000,000 doesn't sound quite right. To me at least.

And now another 1.6 million to be issued, so that dashboard figure presumably will start rising quite quickly

No rapid testing centre has been awarded to Leicester. I apologise beating this drum again, but things seem stacked against our community. I'm unclear as to why this has happened i.e. whether the local authority didn't put in a decent bid- but it seems unfair that as the part of the country with the most prolonged problem again we have missed out.

My friends and family don't seem that upset about it. I think they are just tired of it all, feeling forgotten and TBH many are just doing whatever suits them now.

FFS Chaotic that's just appalling .

I'm on your behalf and at the government .What madness!

Chaotic, that's despicable

@Chaotic45

No rapid testing centre has been awarded to Leicester. I apologise beating this drum again, but things seem stacked against our community. I'm unclear as to why this has happened i.e. whether the local authority didn't put in a decent bid- but it seems unfair that as the part of the country with the most prolonged problem again we have missed out.

My friends and family don't seem that upset about it. I think they are just tired of it all, feeling forgotten and TBH many are just doing whatever suits them now.

I'm furious on your behalf too.

The Leicester situation is awful. My sympathies.

Does anyone know what the theory is behind the Kingston upon Thames increase in cases?

21,502 cases, 519 deaths. All the arrows are pointing up and coloured red again on the dashboard!

Does not bode well for Christmas does it, I have seen that my area (not london) might be headed for tier 3 next week in some newspapers but our cases have gone down so I don't know if its to be believed or not.

Largely same story as the past few days, London, South East and East of England disproportionately contributing to case growth.

7 days to 8th dec spec date

London 240 per 100,000 up almost 40%, Inner 200 Outer 267

South East 194 up 30%

East of England 186 up 46%

East mids 173 up 6%, had been falling

All England 170 up 14%

West mids 167 down 3%

North East 156 down 4%

York’s & Humber 143 down 16%

North West 134 down 4%

South West 82 flat (0.2% decrease)

27 of the 50 areas with highest rate from Tier 2

Tier 2 overall up 31%

How can London but be put in Tier 3 with rates like that, higher that anywhere else in the country? Today preferably - why do they wait around? East and South East are more patchy - SE rise is mostly Kent which is already Tier 3 so urgently needs some other help (mass testing? schools closed? tougher policing?) Essex is the main cause of the East of England rise, so ought to move with London.

I'm not sure why Kent would warrant special treatment in schools. Yes they should be in T3, but why testing?

Their numbers are practically a third of what ours were in greater Manchester. We were given no help, no extra tests and were threatened by the government with sanctions if we kept our children home.

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group @COVID19actuary
Latest data on COVID-19 admissions and deaths in English hospitals.

Regionally, admissions are flat in NE/Yorks only, increasing elsewhere.

In London, SE and East admissions are increasing very rapidly, up 30-40% week-on-week.

In the Midlands, NW and SW the increase is slower at between 5% and 15%.

mobile.twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1337819855471456259

London is high but it is worth reminding ourselves that when Liverpool went into Tier 3, it had the rate of 468 cases per 100,000 population. London is 211 cases per 100,000.

Tier 3 and other restrictions work when individuals appreciate the seriousness of the situation and view the virus as the threat to them, their families and people around them. It was definitely the case in Liverpool. I do not think we are there in London.

Media and social media complain about shoppers in Oxford and Regent Street but the risk of outdoor transmission is fairly low. The real issue is indoor socialisation. An anecdotal example - we have just returned from a Christmas trail organised by the DD's school. The idea is to follow the map, find clues displayed in windows of participating houses and eventually solve a simple charade... It took us just over an hour. Over this period of time we have met a couple of large groups of children (and their parents) leaving from birthday parties, and have seen several large gatherings indoors through the windows from the street. These "COVID breaches" are very hard to police - they can only be prevented if people are on board with the measures.