Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

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Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

I can't see it working to put parts of London into different tiers - it's not like the other regions which are large areas with distinct towns and cities within them. People in one part of London will simply travel to a different part of it if hospitality is open there and not in their part. You can target extra testing, etc on the highest rate boroughs, but it makes no sense to put it in different tiers. Plus, wherever you draw the line between tiers there will be some caught on the wrong side of the line who will be very unhappy. You'd end up with more complaints, opposition and disobedience of the rules than if you simply moved the whole of London to tier 3. And it's not as if the rates are very low anywhere in London.

Case rates today not too bad. 18,447. Up on last Sunday (17,272) but not a lot

18447 cases and 144 deaths

Testing up 7% on the week, but cases UK wide up 19%

Almost 45% of cases added in England from London and south east - as Midge might have said same old story

No case number for Wales so potentially could be 20k + in total.

[quote PrayingandHoping]@JacobReesMogadishu

There's a lot of push from MPs countrywide for this to happen across all tiers. It's not just a London thing

It was one thing that MPs had real issue through and they agreed to support the gov in the vote with the understanding that this would be reviewed going forward [/quote]
Yes, I know a lot of rural MPs asked for it and Boris said no it would be too confusing. In which case surely it's too confusing for londoners as well? Unless he thinks we're all thicko country bumpkins. 🤷‍♀️

And yes Gove wants it area by area. So muswell Hill could be a different tier to hampstead for example (just picking 2 places I know are close)

Even the lowest areas of London are rising fast though. Richmond is one of the “really low” areas and cases there have gone up by 104% in the last 7 days.

Yes, I know a lot of rural MPs asked for it and Boris said no it would be too confusing. In which case surely it's too confusing for londoners as well? Unless he thinks we're all thicko country bumpkins. Nah, Londoners are cleverer than the rest of us, it won't confuse them at all.

The tier boundary problem happens across the whole country, it’s not a London problem.
The village next to mine has the tier boundary running through the middle of it. One pub shut, one open. I’m in one of the areas with low levels that got put in tier 3 because a city next to our county had high levels. It’s 60 miles away from me. The city where I shop, work, socialise and use the hospital is 2 miles away and in tier 2. The police have roadblocks on the road in and are stopping and intimidating old people who are trying to collect their prescriptions from their gp.

Sorry, too ranty for a data thread. They should do it on postcode, everyone knows what their postcode is.

JellyBabiesSaveLives, so true. I'm in Devon, I heard the police are doing border patrols to stop Devonians slip across the border for a trip to the pub.

Hadn't clocked that the Welsh cases were missing today. So likely to be over 20k when they are them in.

The problem with tier boundaries does exist everywhere but it becomes a lot more of an issue to a lot more people the more fine grained you make it, especially in urban areas where all the boundaries will necessarily fall between one house and the next. Every single person in London could easily travel to the next bough to visit a pub.

Hi all, I’m really struggling to understand why Kent cases continue to grow when we were on a lockdown then went straight into tier 3. Surely cases should be decreasing in tier 3 not increasing? I’ve been watching every day the govt interactive map and more seems to turn purple every day. Why is this? Is tier 3 too lax? Is it that people are just doing what they like anyway? Is it schools driving infections? I’m just despairing we can keep increasing despite the highest measures they have. I don’t see how they can justify the Christmas mixing here.

Hastings, ie Rother, was very low, so low no one could understand, sadly it is rising disproportionatly, talk of twice weekly care home testing

I’m in a support bubble with a family in London so likely to see their dc in tier 3 mixing regularly with mine in tier 2. It’s all bit nonsensical re tiers!

And not sure what rules apply to us going to a restaurant if they’re in tier 3 but I’m not !

If you live in tier 3 you have to follow tier 3 rules wherever you are

@YuleAreBeingUnREASTIEable

Hi all, I’m really struggling to understand why Kent cases continue to grow when we were on a lockdown then went straight into tier 3. Surely cases should be decreasing in tier 3 not increasing? I’ve been watching every day the govt interactive map and more seems to turn purple every day. Why is this? Is tier 3 too lax? Is it that people are just doing what they like anyway? Is it schools driving infections? I’m just despairing we can keep increasing despite the highest measures they have. I don’t see how they can justify the Christmas mixing here.

Same here. Numbers climbed all through lockdown, came out of lockdown into tier 3 and the numbers carry on rising.

I assumed so re restaurants , but obviously I can have them over here, then we as a family can go to a restaurant the next day (not likely to though) . Just can’t see the tiers system having a big effect on numbers because there must be a multitude of situations like mine.

@tootyfruitypickle

I assumed so re restaurants , but obviously I can have them over here, then we as a family can go to a restaurant the next day (not likely to though) . Just can’t see the tiers system having a big effect on numbers because there must be a multitude of situations like mine.

It's also because people don't understand the rules. Your support bubble live in tier 3. They should follow the tier restrictions of where they live. If they stay with you they still can't go out for dinner as they don't live with you.

@JacobReesMogadishu
"Yes, I know a lot of rural MPs asked for it and Boris said no it would be too confusing. In which case surely it's too confusing for londoners as well? Unless he thinks we're all thicko country bumpkins. 🤷‍♀️

And yes Gove wants it area by area. So muswell Hill could be a different tier to hampstead for example (just picking 2 places I know are close)"

When the MPs complained last time they were told that it would be under discussion for the review this week. It was a no last time.

So if it does change this time, it won't purely be because of London pressure, v much outside London pressure too

Movement between areas is more simple and fluid in London than in many other areas though- due to the fact that they are geographically closer and the tube makes transport easier.

To my mind that makes the argument for not giving each area a different tier stronger.

@YuleAreBeingUnREASTIEable

Hi all, I’m really struggling to understand why Kent cases continue to grow when we were on a lockdown then went straight into tier 3. Surely cases should be decreasing in tier 3 not increasing? I’ve been watching every day the govt interactive map and more seems to turn purple every day. Why is this? Is tier 3 too lax? Is it that people are just doing what they like anyway? Is it schools driving infections? I’m just despairing we can keep increasing despite the highest measures they have. I don’t see how they can justify the Christmas mixing here.

I'm convinced a lot of it is down to schools. I didn't know any schools with cases in October in Kent ... now all the schools I know are either closed or half open due to entire years isolating.

Although you take the rules of your own tier with you, the only major difference between tier 2 and tier 3 is that tier 3 people aren’t supposed to meet other households in private gardens. The rest of the rules apply to businesses and organisations.

Maybe they need to make the areas really really big, with borders in very rural areas.

There is another thing about London, it got hit hard the first time. So most people seem to perceive the restrictions of Tier 2/3 as being protective rather than punishment. Whereas in some parts of the UK (as so frequently evidenced on mumsnet) it's clearly seen as punishment.

Generally rule-breaking starts the chain of cases increasing. Once cases in the community reach a certain level at MSOA level though, there has to be more spread, and quickly, between households, workers, university / FE/ older secondary schools - all those who can't isolate and are around so many contacts that they must meet someone with the virus. Less compliant areas get hit harder, but it spreads from specific MSOAs first. So I think it would surely be possible to devise a simple formula now that has:
weekly rolling case volume avg residents per household % working outside the home * (11 - deprivation score) = N,
Where any number above say 2000 needs urgent action. I'm amazed nobody seems to have tried to model it to identify the risk number yet.