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Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

999 replies

NoGoodPunsLeft · 01/12/2020 06:08

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

OP posts:
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69
PatriciaHolm · 09/12/2020 17:19

7 day average of people admitted to hospital (to 6th Dec) is actually up 2.6% in England; it's down for the UK as a whole over the latest 7 day period we have complete data for, but that's only until Dec 3 as the Scottish data (which was going down) is only up until then.

lonelyplanet · 09/12/2020 18:04

@littleowl1

I love your new sort facility thank you.

Augustbreeze · 09/12/2020 18:13

Couldn't copy it all but BBC website reporting:

• London should go now into tier 3, partly to prevent it 'spreading COVID across the country for Christmas' (Prof John Ashton)

• Welsh authorities very worried.

• Scottish health experts say summer holidays brought back new strains of Covid to fuel the second wave.

Madhairday · 09/12/2020 18:22

@littleowl1 thank you so much for all your hard work on this, amazing job. I just wondered if there's anyway to still see the old dashboard with all the info at a glance, find it really helpful for seeing a few regions around me and also the general trend across the country. I might just be being thick and missing how to do that.

RigaBalsam · 09/12/2020 18:40

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Firefliess · 09/12/2020 18:43

Number of new cases in Wales has shot up today. Does very much seem that a short sharp lockdown doesn't work well. Most likely either because it displaces people's social plans into the few days before and after it, so not much reduction overall. Or possibly because people are less likely to follow rules that change frequently. Nobody's going to believe that something is safe one week, not safe the next, and ok again just a week or two later. So they're entirely reliant on public spiritness for people to follow the rules.

New cases in England actually down slightly on last Wednesday, though as noted before there's big variation between regions. Cases in the next few days will be interesting as we'll start to see the impact of the new tiers after the lockdown finished. From talking to work colleagues who are young people living in London in shared houses, etc, I think there has been quite a lot of going out and about with non household members in London. Pubs in London are not spacious places with gardens and outdoor heaters, in the main. So think it's quite likely London rates will go up sharply. If they've got any sense at all they'll ensure that any areas moving up tiers do so with pretty much no notice at all, to avoid people going out partying before the pubs all close. Best way to avoid leaks might well be to do this a couple of days before the 16th.

Augustbreeze · 09/12/2020 18:51

I agree with all of that @Firefliess (although have no knowledge of what people are doing currently in London).

Witchend · 09/12/2020 18:54

Wales looks like the second peak of this wave is going to be worse than the first.

littleowl1 · 09/12/2020 19:38

@Madhairday - I will work that in tomorrow. Are you viewing on a mobile by any chance?

yellowstoneranch · 09/12/2020 19:41

Hey 👋 @littleowl1- just saying thanks for your emails. Although I'm
In SE and tier 3 seemingly getting worse still your messages are looked forward to each morning. Miss you on these threads as you were before

Madhairday · 09/12/2020 19:41

Thanks, littleowl. Yes, on a mobile.

littleowl1 · 09/12/2020 20:17

@yellowstoneranch yes I miss being on them too. It’s been a bit nuts TBH - been trying to automate as much of the site as possible so that Christmas hols are a little easier. I’m nearly there and then hopefully will be back soon. Loads of changes on the U.K. dashboard and keen to catch up on latest thoughts on the thread.

Actually I’ve noticed the list of links at the start of the thread is gone. Anyone know if they can be reinstated?? I used to use them a lot - so handy and such a brill collection of data resources.

MRex · 09/12/2020 20:28

It's occurred to me that I don't really know what anyone does in my outskirts part of London any more, because with the cold weather we only go out to parks and playgrounds locally rather than any longer walks. Well, a few walks to see lights on all the houses, trees etc, but super local. So I can't offer insights into why cases are going up. The local forum has people moaning about someone brushing their dog in the park, a lost dog and cat, motorbike issues etc, so not much insight there either.

I have spent some significant time looking at MSOAs, there have been two sets of Kingston upon Thames cases. No major police reports / care home outbreaks reported on the right timeframe. The first all centred around Chessington and have died off (woohoo). The second set looks like it spread down and fanned out from a relatively large number of cases in Wimbledon; areas of New Malden and Merton quite heavily affected (near the 500/100,000 level) with different areas either lessening or still increasing. It's a bit like "spot the areas of large blocks of flats and house shares". It could be many things; rule breaking / a missed pub outbreak / no precautions taken with lift sharing etc. Given the spread down through so many areas that are linked by socialising in a similar timeframe though, I would lay significant bets on a genome test finding it's illegal parties or a major pub / restaurant missed outbreak.

lurker101 · 09/12/2020 21:15

@MRex I live in London too, and have been out socialising outdoors with those outside my household, and indoors with my household, however, we have observed a lot of indoor tables that seemed to be non-households - for example two tables I saw at the weekend were exchanging gifts (which I think would be unusual for a household to do at a restaurant), so I think unfortunately there is quite a lot of non-compliance. Similarly, we were shopping and left because the streets were too crowded to social distance, and few people were wearing masks which I think should have been worn given the conditions.

Additionally, a large number of people seemed to be from “out of town” when we were shopping - purely basing this on the large queues at hamleys, number of people asking for directions and generally looking lost, I also heard a lot of Kent/Essex accents so potentially people travelled in to enjoy the lights/shops etc. from higher tier areas (or like me, they could live in London and have a non-London accent). So I think there’s a lot at play in London, combined with quite a young and social population that often don’t live with/see more vulnerable family members regularly which might encourage riskier decisions than if you knew you were going home to your parents and grandfather’s house. This could change in the next week or so, given Christmas plans.

IrenetheQuaint · 09/12/2020 21:35

Yes - I was talking to a younger colleague today (also in London) who was in a pub with friends the other night where a pitta bread counted as a substantial meal...

Firefliess · 09/12/2020 22:03

@Irene - yes it was a discussion between my younger colleagues about what counts as a meal that made me realize a lot of them were clearly out and about with friends - these are young people who live in shared houses or with their parents. The nights out that they were describing didn't sound like pub meals with family - one was talking about going to a drag show and another about being given three drinks tokens per "meal". I doubt the pubs are inclined to check ID - they're too busy trying to stay afloat

peridito · 10/12/2020 09:16

@littleowl1

could you post a link so that I can subscribe to your emails ? Or PM me it if that somehow breaks MN rules ?

I'm lost in information overload and need your clear presentation .

lurker101 · 10/12/2020 10:00

@peridito this is Littleowl’s website, subscribing details are all there 😊

www.covidmessenger.com/

peridito · 10/12/2020 11:55

thank you @lurker101 ! !

Firefliess · 10/12/2020 16:13

Over 20,000 cases today :( London definitely heading for tier 3.

Stilltalkstotrees · 10/12/2020 16:21

Well that decrease in cases didn't last long 😞 We're tier three, steep decline for a couple of weeks but now climbing again. What's going on?

PatriciaHolm · 10/12/2020 16:22

Today's data - UK cases 20,964, deaths 516.

Quite a jump from last thursday (14,879) and London, on 3,479 specimen date for the 7th (Monday) is already up 30% on the previous Monday. 7 day rolling average to 7th up 27% on last Monday's.

Hospital admissions for London on 7th (210) up 45% on the previous Monday - 7 day rolling average up 15% on a week ago.

Yesterday I was thinking - OK, maybe London can keep itself out of Tier 3, maybe. Today I'm not so sure. Same for the South East and East....

Sunshinegirl82 · 10/12/2020 16:26

Cases are still falling in my area of the SE (we are now down to about 60 per 100,000) but they have shot up in my DM's area in Surrey. Not sure why it seems to have taken off again so quickly.

TheSunIsStillShining · 10/12/2020 16:29

It is glaringly obvious that this "save the economy light touch lockdown and stupid tier system" is not working

Doing things over and over again waiting/expecting a diff result is the definition of stupidity. And yet here we are.....

PrayingandHoping · 10/12/2020 16:29

Case numbers not looking good... so I suppose it's the other factors like hospitals and rates in over 60s that will determine who ends up tier 3.

The Christmas release is going to make it all SO much worse 🤦🏼‍♀️

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