Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

@Keepdistance argh thank you you've reminded me that I have a stack of vitamin D that I bought back in May. I work outdoors so thought I'd wait until later in the year to start taking them. I forgot .

So after commenting my MP plugging for my county to be split and for us to move to tier 1 🙄 I've been told today we are rumoured to be on the list to go to tier 3 (which I think is a step too far as numbers are bobbing up and down in a slow downwards but nether less down just north as quick as others and certainly lower than the last announcement)

I've looked and I can see newspapers saying that the the review is on the 16th and auctioned 19th. Has anyone seen anything official to confirm this?

Just an observation so no data but yesterday I had to do a 200 mile drive to see a relative who is end of life. I left early thinking I'd miss the rush hour but it was really busy at 7 am, drove towards a big city thinking it was going to be madly busy as I'd be there about 8.30 to 9 am but was puzzled that it was so quiet.

I realised I am tier 2, quiet area was tier 3. I wonder if traffic is that much lower in tier 3, if so it seems encouraging that people are out and about less.

I haven't seen anything official about the 16th but it has been mentioned in interviews with ministers when they were being asked about possible changes and they didn't say it wasn't the 16th. So it might be true.

This local govt rather than national but it does say 16th www.devon.gov.uk/coronavirus-advice-in-devon/

hello everyone!

I have just finished building a new local coronavirus dashboard on www.covidmessenger.com providing a summary of cases/cases per 100k in each district council in England - compiled daily from the governments data release on the uk gov dashboard.

You can also download the data in Excel, search and sort etc - functionality which I feel is long overdue - it's just been a busy few weeks. Who knew being stuck at home could be so busy.... the joys of tier 3 living. I have a new chocolate biscuit habit - really need to break that one!!!!!

Anyway, you are most welcome to use it if you would find it useful - www.covidmessenger.com.

I have just realised my last post read very poorly! To be absolutely clear I have been busy building my dashboard not out galavanting! Obviously!!!

We are tier 3 here and I had heard Dec 16th for a review too although I don't feel optimistic about our tier changing

The legislation that expires on 02/02/2021 says:
"Review
14.—(1) The Secretary of State must review—
(a) whether each area that is part of the Tier 2 area or of the Tier 3 area should continue to be part of that area at least once every 14 days, with the first review to be carried out by 16th December 2020;
(b) the need for each of the Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 restrictions at least once every 28 days, with the first review to be carried out by 30th December 2020.
(2) In carrying out a review under paragraph (1)(a) the Secretary of State must in particular consider whether it is necessary for each area that is part of the Tier 2 area or of the Tier 3 area to continue to be part of that area for the purposes of preventing, protecting against, controlling or
providing a public health response to the incidence or spread of infection in England with
coronavirus.
(3) In carrying out a review under paragraph (1)(b) the Secretary of State must in particular consider whether each of the restrictions continues to be necessary for the purposes of preventing, protecting against, controlling or providing a public health response to the incidence or spread of infection in England with coronavirus."

So, there must be a review by 16th December latest, but the government is able to choose to review sooner.

The problem is we don't know (and the legislation doesn't say) what "review" in practical terms means.

It could mean having looked at the data and made a decision by then, but not implementing it that day; it could mean making a decision and having it actually come into play that day. That seems to be the root of the muddle!

There isn't a defined implementation period, so that means it's up to the Secretary of State to decide what date to apply. It's a week away, I expect they'll announce new tiers on 13th, state how people might bear it in mind for Christmas and implement on 16th.

Pretty sure Matt Hancock said he would review on 16th and announce on 17th - will find it

Thanks @littleowl1, that's great. Some massive changes for the better in areas near me, York in particular.

He said on 26 November in a question about the review process
“ I then chair a meeting on a Wednesday for an announcement on Thursday of any change to the tiers.”
So changes to be announced on 17th December

hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2020-11-26/debates/83D15332-0BB5-4AC6-B6A1-71372A06B09E/Covid-19Update?highlight=review#contribution-095071A9-0D57-4CB2-BBCA-05406296AA9D

@Phyzzy Feel free to share with your friends and neighbours! Might make them smile too

@ceeveebee

He said on 26 November in a question about the review process “ I then chair a meeting on a Wednesday for an announcement on Thursday of any change to the tiers.” So changes to be announced on 17th December

aha, well ferreted out!

It’s my role at my work COVID response team to monitor all the announcements and restrictions in all the UK nations (as the travel restrictions impact on our business) so I do keep a very close eye on all of this!

Righto....
So then the question will be implementing and how much notice they give 🤣

Several newspapers seem to be quoting 19th quite confidently which would be plausible

changes to be announced on December 17th though still leaves us no clearer as to when they will take effect? If I have understood correctly, which is far from being a certainty

Hardly the end of the world from a thread perspective, but for any business, particularly hospitality in terms of ordering or not ordering product, rather more problematic.

x post with P&H

@ceeveebee

He said on 26 November in a question about the review process “ I then chair a meeting on a Wednesday for an announcement on Thursday of any change to the tiers.” So changes to be announced on 17th December

Could that possibly mean the meeting is today for announcement tomorrow and implementation next week? So two weeks after initial post lockdown tiers announced and introduced? My buddy has a long-standing booking at a fancy London hotel 17th/18th - we're in tier 3 so she was hoping we'd be in 2 by then. Announcement on 16th and implementation on 19th would obviously be disappointing for her. But hey.

I have read in the guardian that it will be effective from 19th but not seen anything official on that. Very doubtful that there will be an announcement tomorrow, I think there would have been a lot more press speculation today if there was a meeting happening now

Nothing to actually stop your friend from going to another area from tier 3 - it’s an advisory guidance to avoid travel, not legislation (although some businesses are not allowed tier 3 travellers). There is a small risk that London or some parts of it may be tier 3 though in which case hotels would close.

@ceeveebee

I have read in the guardian that it will be effective from 19th but not seen anything official on that. Very doubtful that there will be an announcement tomorrow, I think there would have been a lot more press speculation today if there was a meeting happening now

Thank you.

that should say, some businesses are not allowing* tier 3 travellers

16,578 positives
533 deaths

Past 7 days -
Positives up 3.9%
Deaths down 9%
Patients admitted to hospital down 9.2%
Virus tests conducted up 6.1%