Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

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Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

I am certain that they always said they would review on 16 December - people in Manchester were up in arms about it effectively being 3 weeks from the initial review. The regulations say “by 16 December”. So could be earlier. I don't know if the media reported in slightly different ways, I definitely heard it would be reviewed in 2 weeks, I suppose that could have been interpreted as 2 weeks from the tiers announcements i.e. 9th or 2 weeks after tiers came in i.e. 16th? I'm not sure but I am pretty sure I heard the review was the 9th but the changes would be the following week.

I read review on 16th, announced on 17th and come into effect on 19th I think the govt either changed it or the original was misunderstood so reported incorrectly. I am sure the original reports said review on 9th, which was 2 weeks from announcement, and I thought that was mad as the new rules would only have been in for 7 days and with a lag they would have hardly any information to base decisions on. Although I suppose to be fair that wouldn't stop them.

See, this is where data interpretation can get interesting and the graph from Richard on twitter RP131 is a good example.

14 November - London looking good.

6 December - London worst area in England.

Yet as far as the numbers are concerned, they're pretty much the same. Yes the curve is back on the rise, but lets hope the December figures are reaching another peak and begin to fall again soon.

It’s so strange how despite lockdown, some areas are on the rise. It almost looks like lockdown has had no effect although I’m sure that’s not the case.
But if you take the worst hit northern areas which have now come right down and compare them to London, east and south east- same lockdown but totally different effect on the graph, it does make you wonder if it’s actually voluntary changes in behaviour in hard hit areas having the most impact....

Northern areas had been living in lockdown style conditions for a while so social distancing behaviour had become established. People continued to do what they were already doing.
It shows that changing the rules every few weeks doesn't work.

[quote boys3]@JacobReesMogadishu thanks for that perspective. I’d be surprised if many / any unis get to 30% overall. It will probably vary quite a bit between year groups, likely bigger percentage of 1st years living in halls. Or so I’d imagine.[/quote]
Yes, there could be something in that and the geography of each university may influence that. So in a large city with spread out student areas some distance from campus and the testing site maybe 2nd and 3rd years won't bother. But a small university town such as Bangor maybe it will be less effort/distance and a better uptake?

As you lot are good at finding things... I'm still breastfeeding my toddler, but I want the covid vaccine when available and would consider it a useful side effect that it should protect my toddler. Does anyone know if the Oxford Astrazeneca one is being tested with breastfeeding mothers in later stage trials? I tried to sign up for various trials because obviously we're at the most robust end of the scale possible and I don't mind supplying some breastmilk for testing, but they only ask "pregnant or breastfeeding" as one question, so I don't see how they can be testing. And will they refuse to give it if I say I'm breastfeeding or just advise against taking it, i.e. personal choice? Thanks for any info.

Interesting breakdown of the Pfizer/ BionTech vaccine trial data:
mobile.twitter.com/fperrywilson/status/1336296300858503168

@mrex

The study requirements for the Oxford study say you must NOT be pregnant or breastfeeding during the study.

covid19vaccinetrial.co.uk/participate-birmingham

Thanks @PatriciaHolm, I was wondering if / when they'll test it, or if it'll need years of people accidentally taking it while pregnant to get the all clear. There's a huge disparity in the levels of advice for other medications when breastfeeding, which can be erratic at best.

Realisitically, I think it's highly unlikely they will test it on women known to be pregnant; that's widely held to be unethical, for all vaccine testing.

However, for the type of vaccine the Oxford one is, there is no concern that I'm aware of for pregnant and breastfeeding women (who can get the normal flu jab, for example, despite it not being tested on them explicitly; there will be data on women who become pregnant during testing, for example) So I suspect it will end up like the flu jab - you can have it, as all the indicators are its fine, but there won't be explicit testing.

@Mrex. I've not heard any guidance specifically on breastfeeding. They have clarified that they think it's better not to give the vaccine to pregnant women, so I'd have thought if they were going to say anything about breastfeeding they would have done so at the same time? I guess it's not that urgent to resolve though (and new data coming in all the time) as there won't be any breastfeeders until they get to group 4 (extremely clinically vulnerable of any age) So guess you may need to wait a bit too hear.

Today's data is out. Cases down slightly on a week ago, for a change 12,282 compared with 13,430 a week ago. London definitely on the rise though, and testing numbers very low. Hospital admissions not updated today.

I'm a bit concerned about the testing numbers being so low. It is the easiest way to reduce case numbers to actually not test.

I've checked and tests are easily available in Yorkshire, but the numbers with symptoms (according to the ZOE app) have fallen dramatically.

Pillar 2 (community) tests were actually up slightly from those dated last Monday; Monday is always low. It doesn't look odd to me tbh.

The question with the testing numbers is-
Are people not being tested because:

1. Not so many people have symptoms so don't need to be tested (good)
2. People are getting better at assessing symptoms and deciding they need to be tested or not (good)
3. People are not getting tested because they don't want to isolate (bad)
4. People are not getting tested because they think we're on the way out/or they "definitely had it last March so it can't be" (bad
5. People can't get a test (I haven't heard that recently so I think that's unlikely)

Seven day average of Pillar 2 tests is actually the highest it's been since Nov 17, and only 2.8% down on the all time high. Monday's numbers are higher than the previous 2 mondays. I don't think there is a test issue tbh.

The numbers are increasingly hiding growth in the south under declines elsewhere....

patricia’s point is spot on.

Taking the 7 days to 4th dec spec date as compared with the previous 7 day period:

London up 18% to 183 cases per 100,000 although outer boroughs at 205 and inner 149.

East of England up 17% to 135 per 100,000

South east up 11% to 156 per 100,000

South west continues to fall at 79 and North West now second lowest at 134 marginally lower than East of England

Tier 2 overall up 8% to 126, and Tier 3 overall down 15% at 184.

Kent, Lincolnshire and London LAs make up 9 of the 10 highest areas for the last 7 days.

Then places like Wirral in lowest 25, York with two unis only slightly above that; Knowsley; Liverpool; Trafford all well inside the lowest third and with rates below 100

The London Kingston now higher than the northern one

Picking up on the point raised by @FeelingBIue comparing the current position to that in the 7 days ending 1st November:

London 25% higher from 145; but remains slightly below the 200 per 100,000 in the 7 days to 15 November.

South East 33% higher from 118, but again still lower than the 187 in mid November

East of England 31% higher from 103 and again still below the 152 mid month.

Accordingly some big drops

North West 67% lower; Yorks and Humber 62% lower; North East 49% lower; South West 47% lower: east and west mids both 41% lower.

Lateral flows close to 190,000 reported over last 7 days in England, and with posivity running at about 0.4% that would add around 750 extra cases in England over the course of a week, in the context of around 84,000 overall not exactly a significant number.

Very interesting interview on Radio 4's PM prog half an hour ago with Prof Stephen Reicher, Professor of Social Psychology at St Andrews, on why we need to be realistic about the vaccines and continue to be careful at present.

He mentioned that lots of data (eg re traffic, close obs of city centres) show however that many people are still sticking to the rules.

@PatriciaHolm & @Firefliess - thanks. It's a shame, people with toddlers like me could be ideal test candidates to verify any impact on breastmilk so that it can be confirmed as ok for those with young babies.

@MRex I agree. I'm still breastfeeding a toddler who is properly talking now and could easily skip a day if needed, to test out vaccine effects on breastmilk that could put other mums with wee ones at ease. Ah well.

@moimichme - what will you do if the vaccine is identified as not recommended for breastfeeding mothers? (Not on specific grounds, but on not-tested-yet grounds?)

Could this be the pattern of vit d dropping across england.?