Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

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New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

I’ve been working most of the week in a university lateral flow testing centre in a tier 3 area which is one of the current covid hotspots. Positive tests are minimal, one or two a day. One day no positives.

So even if they are bing double counted I’m not sure it would make much of a difference.

London region as a whole is now on an average rate of 170, second highest in the country, higher than Yorkshire, North East, North West. A rough scan of the map says 2/3 of individual boroughs are over the national average.

By specimen date cases in England for last Thursday and Friday very marginally higher than those for the previous week. At the moment and with up to a couple of hundred more likely for Thursday and probably another 500 or so to Friday.

Saturday is at this stage only 500 less than the previous Saturday, and Sunday at 1532 double that recorded this time last week for the Sunday just gone.

Tier 3s overall still over 15% down, but tier 2s slightly up.

IoW and Cornwall carrying on their downward trajectories.

On 7 day to 3rd dec as compared to 7 days to 26 nov and bearing in mind the former over 90% but not fully complete at regional level London, south east and east England all showing increases.

Scanning through Hastings has been from the outset amongst the lowest for case rates and deaths despite being a high deprivation area. However in the week to Sunday which is not even complete yet 177 cases recorded vs 62 in the previous week.

More bizarrely Kingston upon Hull and Kingston upon Thames now have the same 7 day rate (??? Triple check needed). A couple of weeks back the gap between them was over 550 cases per 100,000 - although the gap almost exclusively caused by the massive drop in the rate in the real Kingston (Hull )

Are these the same tests used in Liverpool? I am sure I read somewhere they had been found to have a 30% false negative when the viral load was high, ie day before or the day symptoms started.

Sorry, that was with regard to the lateral flow tests.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I've read somewhere (BBC maybe) that they look at data up to the 15th, decide on 16th and the move happens on the 18th.

Or something very similar to that sequence, sorry can't find the original source and I can't recall exactly what it was!

@JacobReesMogadishu that info on your uni confirms what I am seeing so far. Have you got any insight on the number / percentage of students getting tests at your uni?

In fact London looks even worse than the most recent “7 complete days” rate. The most recent two days which are not yet complete are showing quite a hike on the same days last week (2,800 cases for Friday 4 December, which is not even complete yet vs 2,100 for the previous Friday). As this chart from RP131 demonstrates - see the hump in the lag period?

The Kingstons' matching rates is like the Richmonds', didn't someone here at one point discover they had some stat in common (although most suffered greatly)?!

Lateral flow tests have a 50% false negative rate.

... when testing asymptomatic people.

I'll be really interested what happens in the review next week

Clearly come areas need a change

My MP is constantly banging on that he is pushing for his part of a (home) county to put in tier 1... he reckons he's been promised that it will be split. it's a total joke. Within that county we don't even have the lowest rates and going on the rankings of the country we've always bee 260+ now we're are around 135.

And loads of people comment to support him for the sake of pubs etc

Do they not look at the figures. Overall yes we have gone down but the last week we are just bobbing up and down....

I've found the statement on Tiers -

www.gov.uk/government/speeches/returning-to-a-regional-tiered-approach

it says
"The regulations will require the government to review the allocations every 14 days, with the first review complete by the end of 16 December."

suggesting the review start date for the 14 days was when they came into effect on Dec 2, not when the tiers were first decided at the end of November.

Of course review could come earlier than 16th, that is the first "end" date.

@ceeveebee depending what spec dates used for the most recent 7 day rate London is the highest, and the north west now only just above the east of England rate and third lowest region overall. Another day or two and north west likely move below east of England given the different trajectories.

South west still lowest by some distance.

@PatriciaHolm I think I read that it was happening on the 9th to come into effect 16th.

I read review on 16th, announced on 17th and come into effect on 19th

Shifting in and out of lockdown, tier 2 to tier 3 - if that happens to London - is so depressing.

All those cafes etc open then shut.

I cannot imagine how physical business have been/are planning this Q4. It's hard as an online service business for us, but it must be a nightmare for them.
I still don't really understand why gov can't come up with a furlough type of solution for them. Pay them to keep shut.
In London it is quite obvious that locking/opening/tiering/opening/whatever doesn't work. And from going around 2 SW boroughs I think people don't give a shit. Maybe because they can't be arsed, or maybe because it is such a mixed message that they are getting. And also the not clear messaging about vaccines really hurts. I've heard 2 ppl talking at the greengrocer how this will be over by end of Jan as we now have unlimited supply of vaccines and everyone will get the jab. They were flabbergasted that the UK only has 400k doses and no idea when the next batch will arrive.

Richmond upon Thames is going up again after a small dip a few weeks ago. I was so happy that we are on the right track.

I don't think there will be significant change on the 16th. It's so close to xmas that they will acknowledge that numbers are shit, but the narrative will be that everything can be open as schools -which by then will be the main drivers- are off on holiday.

[quote boys3]@JacobReesMogadishu that info on your uni confirms what I am seeing so far. Have you got any insight on the number / percentage of students getting tests at your uni?[/quote]
Looking at numbers last week I’d say if the numbers carried on at the same rate We’d maybe only test 15% of students. I’m assuming demand may increase this week? But maybe not, maybe everyone has gone home without bothering. Hard to tell as all teaching online now so campus very quiet. Not sure if they’re holed up in halls or gone home.

This seems unlikely (the narrative you suggest) as it would require the govt acknowledging that schools are the main drivers, which they refuse to do.

Sorry that was addressed to @TheSunIsStillShining

If London is shifted up after two weeks MPs will need their hard hats on. Well not literally. But they will be even more bombarded. Especially running up to Christmas.

Wales are considering another lockdown...
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/07/wales-considers-new-covid-lockdown-amid-rapid-rise-in-infections

According to the dashboard, case rates over the past week are 277/100,000 in wales vs 148 in England.

@Augustbreeze ah that’s interesting I didn’t know all NI schools were considering it, I imagine that most will have to do something similar now that these two have announced it.

I imagine there could be the narrative made that a lot of Londoners will be leaving the city for Christmas, so MPs could pass it off as no need to introduce tier 3 on 16th as many in the higher spread categories would be leaving in a few days for their Christmas bubbles. Whether that’s the right decision or not, is another thing...

@JacobReesMogadishu thanks for that perspective. I’d be surprised if many / any unis get to 30% overall. It will probably vary quite a bit between year groups, likely bigger percentage of 1st years living in halls. Or so I’d imagine.