Christmas needs to be cancelled.

[AlternativePerspective]

So the suggestion to make it possible for the world to go and be super spreaders at Christmas is to stay in lockdown until Christmas, then open up for five days, then go back into lockdown for another 25 days (at least), five days for every day we’re out of lockdown.

Are people really that desperate to have a get together they could have at any other time of the year, maybe in the summer when this pandemic is under control, that they’re willing to spend months in lockdown to achieve it? Really?

My personal opinion is that it is our duty as a society to have a low key Christmas regardless of whether they take this ridiculous measure or not.

I understand that for some they want to see family at Christmas, but these ridiculous suggestions have gone too far.

Just cancel Christmas and give us an extra bank holiday next year to make up for it.

Not easy to find on mainstream media but dig a bit deeper and there are loads of scientists saying the same thing, including all those who submitted the Great Barrington document.

I don't need to dig deeper. I am a scientist. I know many scientists personally. I work in a scientific environment.
Not only that but we all work in health sciences and I know many epidemiologists too.

We all consider those (not loads, but a tiny sample) as dumb asses. And dangerous too.

We all consider those (not loads, but a tiny sample) as dumb asses. And dangerous too.

Clearly not all scientists agree with you.

'Listen to this scientist in Canada, then calm the fuck down, stop being led by fear and see all your family and friends again just like you have every year during the standard winter cold, flu and virus season. This has to come to an end.'

It is coming to an end, there's vaccines coming didn't you know?

I'm not led by fear. I'm led by facts and with 50,000 deaths already despite wide spread restrictions and many hospitals ICUs already overflowing into other clinical areas, more so than any other year it isnt the time to be having a houseful. No, it isn't like a bad flu year at all. Dr Rodkinson refers to the great Barrington declaration signed by such eminent scientists such as 'Dr Harold Shipley' , 'Dr Fartpants' and 'Dr Cummings'. Not sure if he was in on that joke or what, but doesn't give much credence to his opinion does it.

Clearly not all scientists agree with you.

Clearly they are dumb asses.

There's always one. Everywhere. It doesn't make them right. There is no fucking conspiracy or media hype.
There's a fucking new virus that will spread havoc in our society and our health system if we let it. It is already.

@Lweji I’m sure they think the same about you too! And fuck me, wishing my family earlier deaths gives me little faith in your compassion to the cause!

With your credentials surely you of all people should understand that experts have differing opinions and also that you have an opportunity to relay what you think is the correct information.

However, instead you appear on Mumsnet threads and are unnecessarily rude.

'Well it’s been easy enough for the governments and media to scare the shit out of billions of people around the world so why is it so unbelievable that many governments have been swept up in the histeria too'

'Histeria'. So the thousands of deaths and thousands of people on CPAP in hospitals is all just hysterics. Right 🙄

Just watching on the news about a 74 year old and her 2 sons all buried today after dying of covid but its just a 'hoax' or 'like the flu'.

'keep Christmas in your own way, and let me keep it in mine'

And fuck me, wishing my family earlier deaths gives me little faith in your compassion to the cause!

I didn't. Can you read?
You are the one risking it.

With your credentials surely you of all people should understand that experts have differing opinions and also that you have an opportunity to relay what you think is the correct information.

I'm through with conspiracy theories and minimising, when hospitals are full and death rates are climbing.
But people still peddle conspiracy theories and things like "this has to end". Tell that to the virus. It won't listen.

I am quite happy to discuss COVID with experts, even people who have questions, but not deniers. I'm done.

it doesn't explain away the people who were ignoring lockdown back in March and April
Compliance rates were very high in March and April and were not markedly different in any area of the country (i had a good look at the data on this). Most of the problem came from the number of people who were disproportionately still key worker status in certain areas of the country.

or buggering off to Spain and Italy in July, August etc, then whinging about the fact they were being expected to isolate upon their return.
The government were actively encouraging people to 'go and enjoy themselves but be sensible^ and put these countries on a green list of places they could go. Now you might make a judgement that they were unwise to still go but equally they can legitimately say that the government were encouraging them to go and certainly weren't banning travel.

There's an element of the population that don't believe the rules apply to them, or rationalise their rule-breaking by concluding that just one or two people wont make a difference, with seeming scant regard for the fact that if we all took that attitude it would just prolong the epidemic, lead to more deaths, more restrictions, further atrophy of the economy etc.
This i accept but i this mismanagement definitely comes first on the list of problems and there was a lack of leading by example which seriously undermined what confused and mixed messaging there was.

When you have the government saying one week you must not go out at all, then saying children can go to school and then saying go out and eat, go have fun, its fine to travel and then going oh shit you are all to blame for breaking the rules and in no way have we fucked up policy is bollocks.

You cant have it both ways.

We are now in a position where one of the reasons people are breaking the rules is precisely because they are fed up of the inconsistency and bollocks.

To be blame there is a proportion of the country for whom its too difficult to understand properly (and it may suit their wishes not to anyway) because its been such a cluster fuck.

I live next to 3 county borders and theyve had different rules in place. Even the police have said they cant follow it. And i needed to know the rules in all 3 areas to live normally. Im not surprised so many people gave up trying. It was so convoluted.

The whole thing is a undermining of public trust, incoherent policy and fuck ups.

Every time you try and turn it around on the public being selfish you seriously need to consider the elements that led them to that point.

@Lweji let me ask you another question. In your scientific opinion, how exactly do we stop a microscopic virus who’s only function in life is to spread to as many hosts as possible?
Also, forgetting covid for a second (if only) If someone came to you tomorrow and said, lweji we’ve just identified a new virus. It acts pretty much like any other coronavirus in the vast majority of people and 99% of people who get it won’t die, would you be on the phone to Boris telling him to shut the whole world down?

However, instead you appear on Mumsnet threads and are unnecessarily rude.

Yep. Doesn't compel me to take any notice of their opinion I must admit. I prefer a more measured and thoughtful response tbh. Resorting to calling people dumb asses doesn't strike me as a particularly academic and well informed approach to discussion.

And just because I don’t think this reaction is appropriate, doesn’t mean I am a covid denier. You label me as that because I disagree with you but that’s not the case. In fact I’ve even had covid myself and did feel a bit under the weather for 3 days so I am fully aware that it exists. I just question the reaction.

@Redglitter

Your post is the most sensible . People are so quick to blame the government but this thread is a prime example of why they can’t win.

Some will just do their own thing and damn the rules

Some will be sensible and look at their own family situation .

No two families are the same
You can only minimise risk not avoid it all together

And for all of you spouting the conspiracy/ it’s only flu crap . Just have some respect for some of us who have lost multiple members of their family and as much as you are entitled to your opinions I would rather you take them back to your troll abodes where they belong.

The Canadian doctor has an opinion that is not shared by the vast majority of medics and scientists worldwide, and that is not backed up by evidence. For instance there have been many studies about the effectiveness of masks in helping to limit the aerosol spread of viruses. There is no way that the whole world has gone collectively mad and are taking precautions unnecessarily. Simply not reasonable to believe. But it does suit some people to give credence to the likes of this Canadian doctor because they do not have the forbearance and courage to take the necessary precautions.

People just need to be sensible - I hear this; but the question is can people be trusted to be sensible? What is the definition of sensible? One person's sensible is another person's craziness. We do need clear guidelines in order to take decisions based on facts.

@Lostinacloud

Boris did not shut the whole world down?

That was The WHO .

So are you saying every government in Europe is wrong?

RedToothBrush

The poorly relayed message is true here too.

We are all tired. We all have trouble keeping up with the rules.
And I'm not in the UK. We have a better government in charge. But still, people are confused, and lack information.

Lockdowns have led to the need to let off steam and adopt risky behaviours.
Softer measures have led to over-confidence.

The problem is that it's quite hard to say what is the ideal approach.
Information is important, but some people would rather not listen at all. Many people will rather deny it, because it's uncomfortable.

I'm tired too. We are tired in the scientific community. We have been fighting a tsunami of disinformation. Every single day, I see comments and news with disinformation. Poorly presented news by the media, and governments. It's disheartening.

Doctors, nurses, hospital staff are tired. They need a break. They won't get any if we don't do our part.

I know NO ONE who has put all this into a legal statement saying that if they need medical treatment and the NHS are over whelmed that they will be at the back of the queue. Its easy to say they will take the risk and find when they are in hospital that actually they do care about getting better quickly

Didn't actually know something like this existed?

Can you actually do a legal statement basically saying you want no healthcare if ill and it will be honoured (not a DNR, as thats obviously different)? Or is this just something to say as part of an argument? Would be very surprised if such a statement was an actual thing. There was some doctor on youtube a while back crowing about how antimaskers should sign a disclaimer and come work on the covid ward with no masks, or something. When someone did exactly that, they were told that its not possible to do, so it was just the doctor trying to make a point with something that doesn't even exist in the real world, which was slightly pointless in the end

That doctor was not UK though, cannot remember where from now. Maybe our rules are different, and do allow things like this..

I question the reaction in most countries. I think it’s easy to see how it happened and also why people have been so scared when we first saw what China was up to and then the photos and videos from Italy but ultimately it’s a hospital capacity problem and not the deadly disease to all parts of the population that it was first described as. Governments should have been working on capacity to cope with additional respiratory patients this year and not destroying the lives of many millions of people who have lost loved ones to other illnesses, suicide and sent other millions into unemployment and poverty.

@RedToothBrush

Again, I think we're not so far apart in our views on this. I completely agree that there has been a scandalous lack of effective leadership, and that has undoubtedly led to decreased compliance, confusion, and people getting to 'what the hell' point after seeing the behaviours of Cummings, Gove etc. So far as the government telling people to go abroad and enjoy themselves - again, dreadful mismanagement and lack of objective foresight. At the time I thought it was inevitable that would lead to trouble, so the only realistic way to handle it would have been to advise against it, if not totally ban it outright, but instead we got a typically ham-fisted fudge that just led to further confusion and resentment.

I think the lack of leadership, and non-compliance, or decreased compliance, is a vicious circle really, but there's no doubt some people have been wilfully acting irresponsibly from the get-go, even if they are just a tiny minority. With the benefit of hindsight, it seems inconceivable that we were still using public transport and visiting supermarkets back in April, when the epidemic was right at it's peak, without wearing masks. This to me appears again to be a failure of leadership, but I can also accept it might be a significant factor in some people's reluctance to mask-up still. After all, if it wasn't necessary back in April...

With stronger and more decisive leadership to begin with I think we'd be seeing a higher rate of compliance still, but in reality, I believe that would have meant we were not in this position come November in the first place. I remember screaming 'idiot' and such at Johnson sitting on breakfast TV wittering on about herd immunity. I thought it was staggeringly intransigent back then, and I still can't believe how on earth someone with their hands on the levers of power can get these things so fundamentally wrong, so in that respect, I can kinda understand people who look at the UK government and think 'to hell with this...'

All the aggression here won't convert anyone, but rather turn them away. Being 'a scientist' may mean a better understanding of some of the medical aspects of Covid - and conversely may not mean that depending on the discipline - but it doesn't give any greater understanding of the wider societal, political, economic or public health issues.

@RedToothBrush

I understand what you are saying , however the scientific world and the government were adapting to changing situations as covid progressed so surely they had to change direction several times . Many did not want a lock down at all . Many thought they did it too late . When deaths went right down do you really think any lockdown would be adhered to ? Then there mutations happening and of course the economy to consider .

I still can’t my head round why Wales and Scotland had to do different rules though . They had the same information as any one else , and at a time we should all pull together they have confused things even more .

I agree the rules should be simpler but there are hundreds of connotations for every work situation and every family situation as well .

There are lots of countries that are actually in a worse situation than us atm . I know people won’t believe that but Romania and czek republic to name two are in a bad way at the moment . I am not sure why everyone thinks it’s only happening in the uk and that the government is responsible for a pandemic.

And I’m not being heartless to anyone who has sadly lost a loved one to covid. My DGM went into hospital at the age of 89 with a blocked gall bladder and refused treatment because she didn’t see the point in continuing to live when none of her family were able to see her anymore. She would have died in hospital completely alone as staff wouldn’t let her children in to see her even though they told us she had just days to live in her condition. It was only by some miraculous turn of events after her son asked them to discharge her so they could at least be at home with her that the blockage cleared itself and she recovered. In the meantime though, because of the reaction to covid she was alone, scared, upset and facing the end of her life without any contact with family.

@stairway they aren’t vulnerable so I’m very lucky and I will also only see them outside in the garden 🥶 with hot water bottles!

@Lweji let me ask you another question. In your scientific opinion, how exactly do we stop a microscopic virus who’s only function in life is to spread to as many hosts as possible?

We stop the transmission chains. Prevention is the best method. The old distancing, hygiene and physical barriers (masks, for example).
It seems we will get a vaccine. But it will take time

Also, forgetting covid for a second (if only) If someone came to you tomorrow and said, lweji we’ve just identified a new virus. It acts pretty much like any other coronavirus in the vast majority of people and 99% of people who get it won’t die, would you be on the phone to Boris telling him to shut the whole world down?

I'll tell you what I've told many people, many times, in many different media.
Much more politely than some of the posts on this thread. People have actually commented on how patient I was then.
Just for you to have an idea of how tired I am of this shit.

It's a numbers game. This is a virus that we now know that can spread very easily and very fast.
Hospitals don't stretch.
You get 1% mortality if you have good health systems. Without proper treatment in hospital, mortality rises fast. You'd be talking about 3-10% mortality easily.

Where I live many hospitals have reached capacity for ICU, and have transfered patients. Switzerland, the Netherlands, were transfering patients to other countries. Like Italy did earlier in the year.

Our health systems can't cope. COVID mortality would rise, other mortality would rise too. The economy would suffer. Supply chains would suffer.

When this virus first emerged it raised several red flags to me.

We can fight this virus without lockdowns, but people to have to change their behaviour.
If we do mix up with loads of people and don't take precautions, we end up with lockdowns. It's quite simple.

And for people who've had it easy with COVID, many others haven't. I'm not even talking about deaths. But time away from a productive life. And the longer term consequences.

And to end this, when another virus like this emerges, the best option is to close it all and stop it in its tracks, yes.
Sadly, we were too complacent. We thought we could contain it, because we thought it would be like SARS or MERS. It isn't.
I say we, as a community. The WHO, CDC, pretty much every health agency.
People always criticise more extreme measures as overreaction. They still are, despite everyone being able to see the effect this virus is having on our society.
But many others will also criticise for doing very little.
There's no winning strategy here.
Just keeping ourselves and those around us as safe as possible.

We will get through this. It will take time. But we cannot ignore it. We need to deal with it. We need to face it. We need to be brave and not simply look for excuses.
It will come to pass, but let's make sure that it will pass with minimal damage.

Well that all makes sense and is understandable.

I still have a problem though and this is why;

I still don’t understand why the emphasis isn’t on making hospital capacity larger? Especially if this affects mortality rates.

Humans now travel all over the world, trade and goods are global and populations of many countries have almost doubled in the last 100 years in some cases. Inevitably virus mutations and new viruses are surely inevitable and so why has hospital capacity not increased to cope with the changing world and human habits and lifestyles?
This is what I have a problem with. The people are being blamed for killing vulnerable people and yet actually it is the government’s lack of investment into healthcare that has left us open to this risk and for the need to trade off protecting hospital capacity against the quality of many people’s lives.