Data and analysis thread, started 12 November

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Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4064113-Data-and-Analysis-Thread-started-Oct-29

Regular lurker but I frequent poster, didn't want to lose the threads.

@Dadnotamum72

So had this been fixed earlier many more university citys may of been on tier 3 prior to the current national lockdown?

I doubt it - you are talking about a few hundred cases here and there, which probably would have had a small impact on the relevant LA’s rates for a week or so. Manchester seems to be hardist hit but perhaps that’s because they sent all the students for tests and so there were a lot more cases identified? Trafford (where I live) has had about 300 cases removed. I don’t have previous figures for other LAs, only because I happened to have screenshot Trafford yesterday. Am sure RP131 on Twitter will work it all out!

All the LAs with additions - pretty much all Uni cities / town in the big numbers

and all those with reductions. Must admit I thought my own council area would have seen a bigger drop.

Sandwell is a bit of an outlier in that respect isn't it?

There’s Richmond though, right at the top of the table. Top marks to all those on this thread who called it a very long time ago

Interesting table from LCR comparing the rates over the last couple of months. As someone living here, it’s amazing what you get used to as normal. Now, it seems the rates are really low, because they’ve dropped so much. Whereas the same numbers is September were scary at the time.

bit more of a breakdown by LA looking over the last six weeks, ideally should go back a couple of weeks further but this was immediately to hand. UTLAs sorted by region. 3 of 4

and the final UTLA one, districts can follow if of interest

@sirfred. Yes I see what you're saying. It would be good to know how the infection rate in the placebo group compares to that in the general population wherever they were selected from. Having looked at the UK data there were about 1m people tested positive between August and November, so around 1.4%.You'd hope they would be similar if you have a good cross section of people in your trial. I know they try to include some older people in most trials but I suspect won't have got large numbers of over 85s or very frail older people, who have been the most likely to test positive in the UK in recent weeks. They may also have recuited public-spirited people who believe in science, who may have been less likely to catch Covid than others - though you'd think the distinctions there wouldn't be physiological to a great extent (ie the vaccine will work just as well on someone who doesn't believe in either Covid or vaccines, as long as they can be pursuaded to have it!) So this may not matter.

district council changes, first three, in county order

it would matter from a behavioral point of view. I'd try to recruit covid deniers mostly. They will willingly put themselves at more risk this higher chance of getting infected, thus if not infected higher confidence in vaccine working :)

and remaining three sets for district councils

@boys3 number/change compared to what? I usually understand you charts (and love them, thanks! :)) but I'm lost.

Yes please! Birmingham and Leeds have had some big increases.

@TheSunIsStillShining - plus your study would get to unblind much sooner than the others, because you've got all those denier idiots running about getting infected too. Perfect. Unfortunately, they're probably all anti-vaxxers, if the sole person I know is representative.

I think you might struggle to recruit Covid deniers to your vaccine trial though@TheSun. Not sure they'd appreciate the value of it!

So from it being flagged up that cases were being recorded as where the student was registered with the GP rather than their current location, it took them over a month to sort the figures out...!

@Firefliess

I think you might struggle to recruit Covid deniers to your vaccine trial though@TheSun. Not sure they'd appreciate the value of it!

:) Just tell them that it's the antidote to the vaccine and they'll flock :)

@TheSunIsStillShining - sorry -with the address amendments the charts shows the absolute change in case numbers. So taking the first UTLA sheet

yesterday Nottingham had 3091 cases for w/c 5th October;

after today's numbers it has 4049;

so the PHE address adjustments have added 958 cases to that week.

The extracts posted above just show change for each of the past six weeks comparing what was shown yesterday and what is now shown today for each LA.

To be fair, they'd have to fix the issue technicallys and test it, plus fix the old data and test it... I would expect it to take weeks, but it's nicer to have it done at once.

@MRex

To be fair, they'd have to fix the issue technicallys and test it, plus fix the old data and test it... I would expect it to take weeks, but it's nicer to have it done at once.

Let's hope they've got it right.

There are still some oddities.

Taking Surrey - all bar one district council has seen case reductions.

The one exception being Runnymede, home to Royal Holloway uni. That makes sense.

However Guildford is home to University of Surrey, but, unlike Runnymede, has seen a fall in numbers.

At least for the weeks I quickly looked at. Given the variance in Uni start dates I may go back into September and do a wider comparison tomorrow. I'm clearly later starting Oxbridge fixated

Although Cambridge, home to an Anglian Ruskin campus and another Uni has also been adjusted downward.

Ditto Canterbury (Kent uni) and Colchester (Essex). Also Norwich (UEA, one of the original 12 with a testing capability).

Presumably offset by the numbers of young adults who have these places as "home" but have headed off elsewhere?

I think University of Surrey has a larger number than perhaps you'd expect of home students, or even if they live out, students who live near so may not change GP, which may explain Guildford.

We hypothesized a few threads earlier that Richmond (Lon) had very high number of cases because of uni students being registered here instead at uni. If anyone remembers this...
Looking at the charts we had a -50ish deduced almost constantly. That doesn't seem that high. @boys3 do you have the prev numbers to see the % of change?
I'm wondering if we were right or not :)

@TheSunIsStillShining I will look in a bit more detail tomorrow

@thesun Richmond upon Thames had a reduction of -212, the second largest reduction of anywhere - this thread definitely called it right