Data and analysis thread, started 12 November

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Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4064113-Data-and-Analysis-Thread-started-Oct-29

Regular lurker but I frequent poster, didn't want to lose the threads.

www.gov.uk/guidance/full-list-of-local-restriction-tiers-by-area

List is you can actually access without crashing 🙄

By my count

Tier 1. 2 councils

Tier 2. 194 councils

Tier 3. 119 councils

Hancock has just said allocations will be reviewed in a fortnight. Presumably meaning initial tier runs 2nd December for two weeks then any reallocation from 16th December.

Covid is of course off for its 5 day break starting 23rd

So frustrating that the 2 week review starts from next week. So that’s 3 weeks from now. And means hospitality in tier 3 gets only 1 weekend before Xmas. This will basically decimate them. Why not review weekly like Scotland?

(That’s assuming a tier 3 can reduce to a tier 2 then)

My borough - Trafford - has a rate below the UK mean ( 190) , lower than half the East London boroughs, yet we are tier 3 and they are tier 2.

I have stuck to the rules so far but we have been unable to visit family since July and it's starting to feel personal when places in the South East with higher numbers face lower restrictions.

Hello Roses - I’m a fellow Trafford resident and feeling very disgruntled today

@RosesforMama I think they’re not solely focusing on infection rates, but also healthcare availability and infection rates in elderly people. So it may be that because the north west has been harder hit for longer there is less spare capacity in terms of healthcare than in the south east where they could reasonably easily transport patients to London hospitals etc. who don’t seem to have had a large recent COVID impact

@lurker101
They let us struggle on up here with schools in and out, isolations, no contact with families for months and months. They tried to deny us adequate funding. As soon as the numbers in the South start rising we have to do a national lockdown of course. Now we have the lowest R rate in the country and lower actual rates than many districts with 2 areas - Trafford and Stockport - now below national average but despite an r rate still in growth pattern in London they get preferential treatment once again. Then in 2 months time we will have to have lockdown 3 because London will have opened up too fast.

I no longer believe this isn't political.

I'm Trafford too, but I think we need Tier 3 for the next 2 weeks, closing the pubs is the only thing that's got our rates down. I'd rather forgo a fortnight of pub-going than have rates surge before Christmas.

sparetime
I would'nt mind if it was equal. If London was also tier 3. That's the bit that is grinding my gears.

(also, haven't been to a pub since.....Feb?, But would really like to see my sister soon).

Objectively, there are hardly any arguments for putting London into Tier 3:

• The latest positive rate per 100,000 population in London is 181.8. Whole of England is 218.4. Trafford is 190.4 but you cannot “unlock” Trafford without unlocking nearby metropolitan areas (e.g. Manchester - 266.3);
• London has still got sufficient hospital capacity (1,500 of COVID patients currently in hospital vs nearly 5,000 at the peak);
• The latest ONS survey (released today) shows that prevalence in London is still significantly lower than in North West (0.85% of the population infected in London vs 1.75% in North West);
• It is true that some of the East London boroughs have got higher case rates than the national average but if we were to agree to treat London in its entirety as a separate highly interconnected region, the most logical conclusion based on city level indicators is likely to be Tier 2.

2 weeks would be ok, but it will be 3 from now.

The problem is that so many of the factors underlying key measures - the proportion of the population that are elderly, the supply of hospital beds compared to population - are so clearly shaped by historic underinvestment, and there's such a strong link between Covid rates and poverty. That can't be fixed in the short-term, so it has to be factored into the calculations, but of course it infuriates people that rich areas with lots of investment that attract young workers have an easier time of it than those areas that have already been long neglected.

And it’s not just pubs, it’s cafes, restaurants, ice -rinks, museums, theatres, exercise classes, Santa grottos and unable to go to our friends/families gardens

wintertravel - why can't you unlock Trafford from GM? They did (for 24 hours) earlier in the year.

Why can't East London be tier 3?

They have put York in a different tier from everything surrounding it

York and North Yorkshire are both tier 2.

I agree waiting for 3 weeks to review the tiers is absolutely crazy.

I also believe the government should be using forward looking data (e.g. Zoe) to form their decisions. North West was a COVID hot spot a few weeks ago. This has now changed. Cases have been dropping steadily. They are not quite low (yet) but the trend is positive. Why wait for 3 weeks - why not review the tiers when the numbers go under - say - 200 per 100,000 population over 7 days?

Surveillance out:

www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel

York and North Yorkshire are both tier 2.

Ah sorry - should have checked it myself instead of listening to my DH who told me it was tier 2 but the rest of the county tier 3. Thanks

@RosesforMama - Trafford is sharing hospital overflow with the likes of Bolton and Bury on 330/100,000 each, only 15 miles away (only 1/3 the width of London). Tower Hamlets can send their cases 5 miles away to Camden, who's in Tier 2 with only 97/100,000 and falling. Meanwhile the capacity in the NW is still reduced from persistently high cases, because some people take a really long time to leave hospital.

Re East London - if we lockdown a couple of boroughs with higher cases (e.g. Redbridge or Havering), it will simply encourage people to travel to other boroughs. London is too interconnected and travelling / mobility leads to virus spreading.

17555 cases
498 deaths