Data and analysis thread, started 12 November

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

Previous thread here:

Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4064113-Data-and-Analysis-Thread-started-Oct-29

Regular lurker but I frequent poster, didn't want to lose the threads.

@Piggywaspushed

The DfE asked MN to put a statement on a schools thread! It, cites the ONS survey. So it really ahs become part of the propaganda machine.

Piggy I’m not sure what you mean? Is there something on another thread?

End of this one:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4082589-Is-a-change-beginning-to-happen-regarding-schools

Piggy Oh right thanks!

I have questioned on here a few things which has landed me in hot water (rotas etc mostly) but on questionnaire design I get antsy re badly designed forms. Probably because I would have been in firing line had I presented it in past. It’s not good!

But I agree with Fire that this was not designed with the objective we are looking for so results appear shoddy and with glaring mistake.

What I question is who decided on titles and conclusions as they are very laden.

Am I just being cynical or rather: how do you guys interpret the data? Just looking at England, pillar2

In the past 3 days testing has fallen to really low levels and thus cases are falling.

Currently I do not look at daily trends at all. Daily comparisons were useful in September and early October when we were going through the period of exponential growth but they do not tell us much when cases are plateauing or falling steadily (rather than sharply).

As a result, I look at week-on-week changes for both processed tests and positive cases. I also focus on England because the trends across the four nations can be quite different. I am particularly interested in numbers announced on Wednesday and Thursday because unexpected spikes generally tend to occur on these two days.

The numbers reported today, in my opinion, look reasonably good.

Cases reported (England only) - 15,893 - 25/11, 17,189 - 18/11
Tests performed (Pillar 1 and 2, England only) - 254,695 - 24/11, 235,133 - 17/11

In part, cases are plateauing because positivity rates are dropping. Which they needed to, but that's part of the story that can be missed in looking at case numbers - you look at rate and positivity, either alone hadn't enough. 6.2% today, it's improving. Falls in tests with falling positivity is very good news, but we need to go below 3% (ideally below 1%) to state we're back in control.

Another very useful point of comparison is Monday to Monday positive case variance by specimen date. The trend for England so far:

12/10 - 16,186
19/10 - 22,091 (steady growth)
26/10 - 22,750 - slowdown (Tier 2/3 working?)
2/11 - 27,924 (impact of lockdown leak? rapid growth of positive cases in Tier 1 areas)
9/11 - 28,077 - cases start plateauing (lockdown is already in place but virus now spreads within households of index cases infected prior to lockdown announcement?)
16/11 - 23,611 - slowdown (lockdown working?)
23/11 - TBD

Ahead of tier decisions tomorrow (23:59????) these pull together recent weekly cases per 100,000; most recent 7 day change; most recent 7 day rates for the aged 60 and over; pillar 2 positivity. There are 4 colour coded simple ranking 1 to 315 where 1 = highest figure and 315 lowest. Broken down for each LA within each English region. East of England first; rest to follow.

East Midlands and London

North East and North West

Once a week supermarket? I think that's just a particular demographic, lots of people go more frequently, I average more than once a day.

Tests will go down as coronavirus goes down, it won't just see a falling positivity rate, because people won't be testing, obviously the same number of negatives will have the 3 main symptoms from other viruses, but so many people were getting tested with no symptoms or other symptoms because they knew they were a recent contact either out of fear or out of encouragement from employers etc.

So as rates go down, you'd also expect number of pillar 2 tests to go down. Pillar 1 tests shouldn't vary as much that I can see, I should check.

South East - a special place so a post all to itself

South West, West Mids, and Yorks & Humber

Hello all how do we find local case data please?

Wow, the sophistication is rising as the cases fall @boys3, excellent work. Some areas have lots of consistency of falls and some really big 30-40% drops showing that are fantastic. Then we have a few areas rising...

Is it unreasonable to think places like East Sussex have people being less cautious just because they're used to low cases and not checking the figures? I.e. Rule-breaking. Anyone know of other reasons for specific areas that haven't had drops; known factory / prison cluster?

@monkeytennis97 - see @boys3's excellent tables above to compare with other areas.
To look more locally, your best option is the map on the main government page (scroll down):
coronavirus.data.gov.uk.
For cases by age in your local area, this is interesting: victimofmaths.shinyapps.io/COVID_Cases_By_Age/.

@MRex thank you

This is an interesting article www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/25/data-glitch-may-have-led-to-more-than-1500-covid-deaths-in-england?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

They've analysed data from places that were affected by the cases they lost via the Excel spreadsheet error a couple of months back and have estimated how many cases and deaths were caused by the lack of contact tracing for those who fell off the bottom of the spreadsheet. Would be interested to know what people think of it? A lot depends how really random the ones that fell off were - and the areas they're in (They can't possibly know which cases were caused by which, so must be using aggregate (local authority) level data. Interesting though. They're conclusion is that contact tracing does matter.

Their conclusion, that should have read.

@MRex

Wow, the sophistication is rising as the cases fall *@boys3*, excellent work. Some areas have lots of consistency of falls and some really big 30-40% drops showing that are fantastic. Then we have a few areas rising...

Is it unreasonable to think places like East Sussex have people being less cautious just because they're used to low cases and not checking the figures? I.e. Rule-breaking. Anyone know of other reasons for specific areas that haven't had drops; known factory / prison cluster?

Yes @MRex spot on! My brother is in East Sussex and all I've heard all through is there's nothing in the area and they have always been one step ahead from next restrictions relaxing (shouldn't have obviously !). They even just thought the virus should just be left to let rip (they are intelligent people!! Honestly! It shows the opinion of these quieter effected areas)

So now it's everywhere. Their friends have it. Their son had to isolate because of a contact. But I'm not surprised as I don't think they or the people in their area respected the restrictions and the reason for them. Now they are paying for it

I will be interested as to what tier they will be put in (I secretly want it to be 3 to hear their reaction!)

Any thoughts on this www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-55078706 The Exeter nightingale hospital is opening tomorrow to patients for the first time. It's confusing me a bit as alot of the area has been low all the way through and Exeter and Torbay went through a high phase but have come down alot. Do they know something we don't?

I know they could take people from a wider area but they specifically say it is pressure on the RD&E.

@ancientgran I know the numbers in Weston super mare aren't great....

@PrayingandHoping I didn't look at Weston, but wouldn't they go to the Bristol Nightingale, it would be closer although I suppose it might be full.

[quote Piggywaspushed]End of this one:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4082589-Is-a-change-beginning-to-happen-regarding-schools[/quote]
That is really worrying.

What would make me happier about the situation is them being honest and open, admitting what the situation is.
Saying "schools are covid safe" does not make it true even if they say it three times and turn widdershins while they say it.
Showing us how they are making schools covid safe because they have looked at the data and are reacting accordingly does reassure me-even if I disagree with what they do, that would be better than pretending there is no issue.

My ds is home currently because there aren't enough staff and there are a rapidly increasing number of cases in the school. They're shouting the former and keeping the latter information as side info. But if there was enough staff less than half his year would be in-and they're only sending home close contacts ie those that sit next to them.
Another local secondary is closed for at least the next 2 weeks. The third I'm told has had one year isolating every week since half term. We're in a relatively low area. How can they think this is working?

No idea which way they'd go.... but the council area is bigger than Weston (I looked it up as family there. Think it was North Somerset or something like that, sorry can't remember)

Re Exeter Nightingale - I know that a main hospital in Devon (not Exeter) had over 500 staff off sick a couple of weeks ago and was in a really bad situation - don't want to go into details as this came from staff there (yes, word of mouth I'm afraid, so take that as you will!). Devon has low provision so I think not much flexibility for the whole area.