Data and analysis thread, started 12 November

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

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Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4064113-Data-and-Analysis-Thread-started-Oct-29

Regular lurker but I frequent poster, didn't want to lose the threads.

24962 cases reported last Sunday. Still moving in the right direction.

@TheSunIsStillShining - yes, that's where I thought you were. I really wouldn't expect RoT council to allow that, have you reported them to local public health?

Wait, now I am confused, so the 141 yesterday should have been there and today went below 300?

Were the shops open for click and collect? We saw a bookshop that appeared open last weekend but on closer inspection was just open for that not browsing. Think quite a few are doing this as allowed, I'm collecting a couple of things this week to try to minimise time in shops when they open in December as suspect it will be bonkers, will do it during my government mandated exercise . Pubs/costa can open for takeaway but shouldn't be allowing people to use beer gardens etc.

Wait, now I am confused, so the 141 yesterday should have been there and today went below 300?

Thats how it read to me.

Although they're not clear if all the deaths were wrongly omitted or just some of them

Today’s numbers definitely moving into Cava territory. In England only a further 63 cases added to last Monday specimen date, taking that to 23573, so a good fall as compared to the previous circa 28000 for the two Mondays prior to that. Tuesday although passing 20,000 looks on track to be 3000 / 3500 lower than the previous Tuesday. It would be good if the rest of this week just finishing, for wed - fri, came in at below 20,000 each day. Weds possibly a bit touch and go on that front, more confident looking at the early numbers for Thursday and friday.

The thing is.... non essential shops and busy high streets contribute very little to virus transmission.

If the government or public health professionals could simply wave a magic wand and prevent people from different households from socialising indoors, it would have been sufficient to keep R under 1. Shops, hairdressers, even COVID secure gyms, etc would not have needed to close.

However, people are highly unlikely to stop living their lives and seeing family and friends if the rest of the economy is open. As a result, the government had to introduce "temporary national measures" (more commonly known as a "lockdown"). Its primary goal is to set the tone from the top and re-emphasise the seriousness of COVID. It is not to stop completely non-significant level of transmissions happening in non essential shops.

As a result, it is not surprising some councils (especially in London) are non particularly bothered with rule enforcement. At the end of the day, a local pub selling takeaway drinks keeps contributing to the local economy without creating any real COVID risks.

Re: masks outdoors - European countries who introduced the blanket requirement (e.g. Spain, France, Italy) have all seen a sharp spike of cases shortly after that. In hindsight, it was not a very effective or smart move.

I was chatting to my French PILs and they mentioned that with the new requirement they switched to seeing their friends indoors (prior to the French lockdown). I thought it was an interesting unintended consequence that probably could and should have been thought of. The reality is quite a few people do not enjoy wearing masks. If previously they were happy to meet their friends for a walk in the park, with the blanket mask requirement they may be more likely to socialise at home or go to restaurants or pubs (where you can get away without wearing masks). A minor reduction in risk from outdoor transmission is immediately outweighed by a major increase in risk from indoor socialisation.

@Nellodee weren't the "other workers" defined in a footnote as HCP and others or similar? Definitely frontline workers.

Which makes the total (after adding up the three separated classifications) of teachers quite scary. More so if you add in TAs.

Does anyone on here have a link to the website which showed cases according to ward area not just local council area? I found this really interesting but can't find it any more.

Really interested as in my local council area cases have gone though the roof. I've seen published particular ward areas where cases are above the published council figures , assuming then that other areas will be lower and I'd like to see how this looks

On the interactive map, what does it mean by "data suppressed"?

Suddenly there's a number of areas around us that have that. If you click on it, it says "Data suppressed to protect the privacy of individuals and prevent disclosure."

As a result, the government had to introduce "temporary national measures" (more commonly known as a "lockdown"). Its primary goal is to set the tone from the top and re-emphasise the seriousness of COVID. It is not to stop completely non-significant level of transmissions happening in non essential shops

It's just the same basic failure of communication though, if "the government" had actually communicated what was risky, what wasn't, then they could have used appropriate measures rather than "PANIC, you are going to die unless you stay inside, see no-one, not even your doctor to check out the strange lump, wipe down anything that comes into your house or preferably quarantine it in your garage", then meaningful measures that actually make sense could have been done.

Once fear is the only message you choose to use, there's nothing else, and you have the problem that people who aren't scared won't listen anyway, they will just argue with the restrictions being a nonsense. Then the actual message is lost when people have very sound arguments about why the restaurant selling a few pints and coconut & beetroot lattes to drink by the river isn't likely to impact covid rates - and might help out both the economy and peoples health - at least they walked to the river rather than sitting on the sofa.

Misguided rules, and over-zealous policing (whether by council or just by curtain twitchers) makes every rule ineffective.

My borough appears to have fewer pubs open for take-away than in the summer - maybe it's just 'cos it's cold now, and people aren't as desperate for a pint as the people of Richmond on Thames with their 4 pubs to brave the weather.

On the interactive map, what does it mean by data suppressed

Less than 3 cases.

Not totally convinced what re-identification can really be done.

@sirfredfredgeorge

On the interactive map, what does it mean by data suppressed

Less than 3 cases.

Not totally convinced what re-identification can really be done.

Oh, that makes sense. Although I can identify one area as I know the family, so 5 out of 6 cases are them, and I suspect I may know the other. I'm not sure either group would care too!

Did they used to just put 0-2 cases? I haven't looked at it for a while.

@Augustbreeze You can't simply add together the bars in that chart for all the types of teacher. They're proportions, not simple numbers. What you want is a kind of weighted average. You'd need to add together all the teachers who got Covid in all three groups, and divide by the total numbers of all three types of teachers (ie the the separate denominators) which I don't think is possible from the data available in the publication. The suggestion made in the Twitter feed is instead to focus just on the "teachers of unknown type" because the error bar on that group is smaller, which means that it's a much larger group than the other two types of teacher (ie most teachers did not specify whether they were primarily or secondary teachers).

OK, thanks @Firefliess

I know this is a data thread, but I'd like to help spread the word (report if you are annoyed by it)
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I think the arts sector needs help too and hope this will a fantastic show:

www.rtflockdown.com/

Kenneth Branagh, Judi Dench, Ian McKellen, Maggie Smith, Derek Jacobi

Interesting article about a NZ study that looks at how Covid can spread on long haul flights:

thespinoff.co.nz/science/23-11-2020/siouxsie-wiles-aches-on-a-plane-new-findings-on-in-flight-covid-transmission/?fbclid=IwAR0NyfsYKYbhwye-eY7tbiVLd43FI6wWioESgTqxcgMuDrH8ZJ7ucfit8No

just now breaking news that the oxford vaccine shows 'only' 70% effectiveness.

90% if first dose was 50% of full strength.

Yes I've just read that @pink. A bit disappointing tbh. Had hoped it would be more like 95% like the others. What will they do with it drop people think? They've ordered enough doses of the Moderna and Pfister ones for 25m people, which would pretty much cover the over 50s. So will they give the Oxford one to the under 50s? Use it on everyone as a temporary vaccine to slow the spread then give them the better one later in the year?

even with 70% it might be a good contender to the other vaccines if the storage is less of an issue.

Compared alongside vaccines 70-90% is still v good news. It has importantly shown good response among the elderly and not a single person who did catch CV got ill enough to end up in hospital. There is also signs that it may stop transmission which would be huge

People need to look at bigger picture and not focus on comparing numbers.

100 million doses at 1.5 doses per person also means enough to vaccinate (practically) every single person in the UK. Certainly more than enough when combined with the other two.

I was told that even 30-50% effectiveness would have an impact.

The difference in results with different dose regimens is interesting. There are fewer in the half dose/full dose group but the results are statistically significant.