Data and analysis thread, started 12 November

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Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4064113-Data-and-Analysis-Thread-started-Oct-29

Regular lurker but I frequent poster, didn't want to lose the threads.

weekly update on P2 positivity rates, same format as before (apols have not had chance to revise colour scheme), and direction of travel requires upward or downward movement of at least 2 percentage points to be highlighted. Far more greens starting to appear in the DoT column which is good news, and very few reds.

Upper tier councils attached; districts to follow

and every district council

Apologies @boys3 what does green DoT mean? An improvement in the past week?

@PrayingandHoping - yes, subject to an earlier request, DoT - Direction of Travel - just compares the latest figure with that for the previous week, and only highlights if at least a 2 percentage point movement upward (red) or downward (green).

Hopefully the broader colour spectrum (light green below 2%, dark red 15% or more) also gives a wider sense of progression.

Gotcha! Also makes sense with the 2% diff... that was addling my brain!! 👍👍

Thanks @boys3. You have to at least have cava for that.
Can the oranges be made a little more distinct next week please?
I was wondering. As the moment the number of tests and cases vary, if we took the latest weekly case rates and multiplied by positivity, would it show most clearly which areas have the greatest issues? Or is that treating % positivity too simplistically?

I think the issue would be that case rates per 100,000 encompass both pillar 1 and 2 , whilst the positivity I’ve shared in just for pillar 2.

I did notice that there is new (?) downloads section on the dashboard which seems to offer lots of selection options at council level - testing for example - although when I quickly tried it for tests for my lower tier council area it just returned blanks.

Is testing perhaps captured at CCG level like healthcare?

That downloads area would be great if it worked @boys3!

I don't get how the case numbers are falling even a little bit. Had to go shopping and pubs are open and crammed outside, no masks, high streets are busier than ever, shops have mandatory masks when you walk in, but then half of the people take off/under nose.

Pubs open? Where are you?

TheSunIsStillShining. Eh? Few shops open, no pubs, high street empty.

The police in my town had to close a road yesterday because of a huge traffic jam to get to a retail park.

Are you in Swale or Thanet @TheSunIsStillShining? Maybe we are getting near to an explanation!

Locally a number of shops stayed open claiming that they were selling "essentials" (by doing things like adding face masks to their normal sales). And some of the pubs tried offering "takeaways". The council went round and closed the majority. The list of open shops went down by over 50% over last week as they went round them all.
I'm guessing something similar round @TheSunIsStillShining but maybe the council hasn't acted.

We have some local pubs selling takeaway, but they sell from the door (mostly deliveroo / uber eats collection from when I've walked past, all of whom are masked and rather nicely distanced). I'd hope the council let that continue, no possible harm in it.
Could be Scotland or Wales, if they have open pubs? I thought she had said a specific different location before though.

Richmond upon Thames
4 pubs (none with proper food option)
2 essential phone cover selling shops
costa
dry cleaners
music/instrument shop

These are the ones of the top of my head.

and i find it disgusting that whsmith can be open and sell books whilst the 2 local small bookshops had to close. They are way better stocked, knowledgeable and generally real shopkeepers, not just min wage teens in a shop.

Just loving the contrast of ROT and Swale

Wow.
In my town there are more people around than you would expect given it’s essential shopping only but the shops open are only the clearly justifiable ones. A few cafes open for takeaway but most shut for the duration.

With regard to that horrible "teachers are less likely than other professions" data... did anyone ever figure out what "other professions" were?

Nope! It is just about the worst research ever!

There is no sign of a lockdown here either - market town in the midlands with retail centre queues. Even during the week.

I don't know, personally I think closing shops was a mistake. They are going to be even more rammed than usual next month due to the pent up demand.

@MRex

We have some local pubs selling takeaway, but they sell from the door (mostly deliveroo / uber eats collection from when I've walked past, all of whom are masked and rather nicely distanced). I'd hope the council let that continue, no possible harm in it. Could be Scotland or Wales, if they have open pubs? I thought she had said a specific different location before though.

That's fine as takeaways. Takeaways where you have to return the glass the drink is sold in, you have to go to the counter and the chairs are left available for people isn't quite the same.

18662 / 398

Due to a processing update, 141 previously published deaths within 28 days in England were excluded from the published data on 21 November

This issue has now been corrected for data published on 22 November, which includes deaths omitted yesterday in today’s total and daily number of newly reported deaths