Data and analysis thread, started 12 November

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Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4064113-Data-and-Analysis-Thread-started-Oct-29

Regular lurker but I frequent poster, didn't want to lose the threads.

Dare we hope?

Surely we must be reaching the point where a version of herd immunity is starting to form within high infection drivers such as schools and unis?

Even without restrictions people tend to keep to the same places and seeing the same people so even if they are mixing with 100 people a day its likely to be the same 100 people? infection opportunities must be reducing within these "mega-bubbles" by now?

@ancientgran I had no idea there was an 11am briefing. Was it on the BBC?

Hospital admissions are more or less the same as they were a week ago, which is the first time in a while that that's happened. Testing a bit lower of late though - is that maybe because rates of testing in Liverpool have slowed down?

2 weeks in from lockdown now, so I guess this is when we would expect to see some results.

Still, there seems to be some big regional variations. I’m in the east and we were previously tier 1. Our rates don’t appear to be plateauing yet, still rising but obviously from a lower base. Whereas places where it was worse before lockdown now seem to have peaked.

Always confused me that we were left as tier 1 despite sharp rises, just because rates were still relatively low. Really hope the lockdown works here and other places where it was “low” before lockdown....

Agree, it does look like things are steadying. At least in the short term there must be some level of immunity and a reduced R in many schools and unis.

@Pahrump Not sure "mega bubbles" of the 100 odd people you might see in your life work - those people would all see different combinations of people. We don't live in tiny islands. And I think the impact of herd immunity is probably still quite minimal - maybe 10-15% at most, which would just dampen rates of growth a little but not turn around an upwards trend.

But we would expect to be seeing the impact of the latest lockdown about now, so I'm hopeful that the lower numbers today are the start of that.

Deaths lag though so wouldn't plateau at the same time as cases.

The case distribution by date looks very different today - looks like they're catching up. Relatively low testing numbers still.

Firefliess

For example Students might socialise but they tend to socialise with other students in student places so their "bubble", although large, is contained and enough time may have passed now that anyone susceptible to the virus has had it or already passed it on so theirs fewer avenues of escape now.

I dont know if I'm explaining it properly but it makes a kind of sense to me 😬

Makes a lot of sense to me, Pahrump. There was a link earlier on this thread where SAGE have also finally conceded that limited population immunity is likely to play it’s part.

The fact that we had a big “spike” in university cities when they first went back which has now died away seems to back up your theory too. I don’t for a minute think it’s the only thing going on, but hopefully it will become increasingly relevant.

In april the plateau laste about a month or so. If now is the same pattern than we can't expect realistically daily numbers to drop before mid-dec. The worry in that is if it starts dropping just a bit before xmas ppl will exhale and carry on as if everything was normal. I'm assuming that gov will somehow manage to put out messages to support this by. Which will lead to massive spikes again from mid/late jan. Giving time for transmission to occur through schools
what do you think?

Like flu people can be re infected there are different strains around so whilst it may run through uni students now, early next year or next autumn it could hit again.

I think a lot of the unis were doing far more testing at the beginning of term than they are now. From my knowledge of students (I've one in the 2nd year) via parents, there seems to be still a lot, but they're out in their own houses rather than halls and often choosing to isolate as a house rather than get all tested.

@Pahrump it makes sense to me too. I had flu in the 1989-90 epidemic. I recall huge numbers of my secondary school class being off sick over a period of several weeks but it passed through and things went back to normal. I have been wondering whether the same will happen with Covid.

@NullcovoidNovember

Like flu people can be re infected there are different strains around so whilst it may run through uni students now, early next year or next autumn it could hit again.

New research that immunity may last longer 'Study finds robust antiviral T cell response in humans with COVID-19 and detects substantial crossreactivity in unexposed individuals'

www.lji.org/news-events/news/post/first-detailed-analysis-of-immune-response-to-sars-cov-2-bodes-well-for-covid-19-vaccine-development/

@Chaotic45 I had no idea there was an 11am briefing. Was it on the BBC? Yes it was, I was sitting doing some crochet with the TV on in the background so I caught it be accident. I'm sure they said it is going to be weekly. It was Dame Angela and two others, can't remember their names. I thought it was good, lots of stats and no politicians, you can't beat that can you.

So is it possible that students going home could make things worse? If the virus is effectively corralled at the moment is spreading potential carriers across the country really such a great idea?

In april the plateau laste about a month or so

Part of that was possibly continued re-infection into care homes after everyone else had locked down, the general population tests would likely have fallen before, but they weren't being tested.

@Pahrump yes, unless they're all now immune.....

I think that's right @sirfred. If you look at what happened in a lot of other countries they had a much sharper peak than us. There were lots of stories about it circulating round care homes in the UK at the time, and we also took until the end of June to get on top of mass testing, so there was a longer plateau here than there might have been if the lockdown had been better supported by mass testing, especially in care homes. Hopefully this time will be more of a peak.

I think that's right @sirfred. If you look at what happened in a lot of other countries they had a much sharper peak than us. There were lots of stories about it circulating round care homes in the UK at the time, and we also took until the end of June to get on top of mass testing, so there was a longer plateau here than there might have been if the lockdown had been better supported by mass testing, especially in care homes. Hopefully this time will be more of a peak.

So your expecting our numbers to plateau for a short time, but then fall. Maybe a week?

I think the case numbers reported tomorrow will be quite interesting.

Last Thursday was very high and my hypothesis is that the spike was triggered by the lockdown leak and people making the most of the pre-lockdown weekend (especially in Tier 1 areas). This week should be lower. It is pretty certain that this Monday (by date of specimen) it not going to be as bad as the Monday before - however it will be useful to see the trend for the rest of the week. If lockdown does work, cases should plateau for a few days and then start dropping.

Of course, some areas (e.g. North West) have been on the downward trajectory for a while as a result of Tier 3 measures.

I'd hope so @TheSun They're falling in Wales now, following the lockdown that they went into a couple of weeks before us in England. Yes the next few days should make it clearer whether that's happening

This from PHE was updated yesterday and makes interesting reading assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/936461/EDSAB-HOME_study-details-research-protocol-outputs_18-11-20.pdf
It looks at immunity to Covid amongst key workers in June and concludes that at the time 25% were immune although only half that number had antibodies or appear to have been infected with Covid. It puts the remaining portion down to cross immunity from other coronaviruses using T-cells. As the number infected is now higher, this could explain the slower trajectory in the Autumn compared to spring. A certain level of population immunity in some areas harder hit in spring, like parts of London, with the virus now finding susceptible populations remaining around the country like in Hull at the moment.