Data and analysis thread, started 12 November

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Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4064113-Data-and-Analysis-Thread-started-Oct-29

Regular lurker but I frequent poster, didn't want to lose the threads.

Have you looked at it on the map - that shows the area of each MSOA?

I've been drumming my fingers impatiently for Oxford vaccine news. The ( unsubstantiated ) rumour is that they may publish their results at the same time as their announcement. Interesting article on the peer review process:
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11192-017-2310-5

I imagine the peers may respond a little more promptly when a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine paper lands on their desk!

@Danglingmod - have you verified your postcode location on the Royal Mail site? The map is using the Ordnance Survey and PAF data, which is the standard used anywhere, so it's hard to see how your postcode can turn up elsewhere unless you have a new build or a permanent error needing correction.

I will check that. It's odd because my house is an old one and not near the edge of the village and we have no issues with deliveries etc. It may be that for reporting purposes to even up population figures theyve taken part of our village and added to the next area along? But it's unrepresentative to people looking at numbers in "their" village it really includes ppl in neighbouring ones.

@cathyandclare They've been allowing time-critical research relating to Covid to be published pre-review so I don't think the Oxford vaccine will get caught up in that process (thankfully!) I personally think there ought to be some sort of accelerated review system, completed within 24 hours, but I don't think that's what happens currently. Yes, very impatient to hear about that one, as it's the only vaccine the UK government appears to have put in sufficient orders for that they'll actually be able to vaccinate everyone anytime soon.

Norfolk seems to be accelerating quite quickly (from a lowish base but still) - does anyone know if they have found anymore clusters? Previous rises were meat factories I think but the rates are now over 200/100k which has doubled over 7 days or so.

Did anyone watch the 11am briefing? I didn't realise this was a thing now. I thought it was good and didn't miss the political input.

I really like Dame Angela McLean, I feel like she is someone you could have a normal chat with about it all.

@ancientgran I agree, although I got the understandable sense of irritation with journalists asking repeated political and politically loaded questions. The fourth estate have, bar some honourable exceptions, not covered themselves in glory when it comes to Covid.

@2Christmassybyhalf

Norfolk seems to be accelerating quite quickly (from a lowish base but still) - does anyone know if they have found anymore clusters? Previous rises were meat factories I think but the rates are now over 200/100k which has doubled over 7 days or so.

@2Christmassybyhalf the Diss Mercury local paper of choice for many I'm sure www.dissmercury.co.uk/topic/Tag/Coronavirus%20in%20Norfolk has three interesting articles, the first one in the link references wide ranging infections rates within different areas (sub district council level). although fails to identify any specifics.

cases per 100,000 movement by week for each district Council from start September to last week (noting last week not yet fully complete in terms of cases feeding through)

East of England and South West

South East and North West districts

East Mids, West Mids and Yorks & Humber districts

Lots of data and charts on global vaccine purchases and COVAX commitments: launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19.

What the heck has happened in Swale and Thanet????

@PrayingandHoping I wondered exactly the same thing. I actually double checked the numbers as the recent trajectory was so rapid to ensure they were correct.

Deprivation? They’re poorer parts of Kent aren’t they? I say with very little knowledge of Kent!!

I don't know what's causing it, but most of Kent's rates are soaring; Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and a few other areas not, but largely in the West of the county, so far enough away that you'd be forgiven for confusing them with East Sussex.
Weirdly, my research attempt led me to find they're dealing with bird flu too (still in birds, no panic!): www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2020/11/02/bird-flu-outbreak-at-farm-in-kent-480-birds-to-be-culled/.

Those parts of Kent are fairly deprived. I saw one notable local stupidity instance recently, but not loads like there were with Manchester a little while back: www.kentlive.news/news/kent-news/five-party-organisers-face-fines-4669639

It's worth noting that cases near the coast in Essex are rising too, though not as sharply. The more I look at maps over time, the more they look like they're tracking weather fronts until the virus increases to a high enough level to sustain itself in a town or city and sits there. I think in years to come the enormous impact of weather on covid transmission will become clearer. I can't prove any of it, but sharing the thought, sorry.

Looking at the age heat maps for Swale and Thanet: victimofmaths.shinyapps.io/COVID_Cases_By_Age/.
The main rise started to escalate from mid-October and started with 25-40 year olds, lots of them quite quickly infecting each other. Does that perhaps suggest most strongly that it's workplaces (factories?) or illegal partying?

Deprived maybe for Kent standards but I would be surprised if it ranked highly in that category nationally (i lived in that area a while ago)

I see what u mean about the Kent/East Sussex border. I have family just in ES and they have boldly been saying for months that their case numbers are v low and not been happy about restrictions as it didn't effect them. According to them all their local friends (kids in mix age of schools) felt the same so my suspicion would be that rules are not being kept to the same way as other areas (certainly the case for that family member 🙄)

We used to have deprivation stats links, but lost the links with @BigChoc abandoning us.

I'm too lazy to do any more research, but found this:
"19 per cent of neighbourhoods in Swale and 21 per cent in Thanet were among the most deprived 10 per cent."
www.kentlive.news/news/kent-news/new-data-named-20-most-3367784

fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/G8UcFiedVE

Link to PHE deprivation stats

@boys3 thank you very much, very interesting. Seems to be concentrated round Wymondham

19609 cases
529 deaths

Both figures lower than weds last week (22950 and 595)

Really hoping this is a real plateau now