Data and analysis thread, started 12 November

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

Previous thread here:

Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4064113-Data-and-Analysis-Thread-started-Oct-29

Regular lurker but I frequent poster, didn't want to lose the threads.

Numbers are rising on the Zoe app. Preston has risen another 1000 today. After a decrease after half term.

NE England here, and after a huge rise Zoe app is now showing a big drop 2,801 decrease since last week.

We discussed here that Zoe is not very reliable for local level info.

However it seems pretty good for monitoring nationwide trends. It was first to highlight that daily transmission rates started going up in late August. Back then most of the official sources and Friday SAGE updates were still showing R under or about 1.

So far Zoe has been showing that:

• Tier 3 restrictions appeared to have worked. Infections in North West have been consistently going down over past few weeks.
• R for England went down to 1 at the very end of October.
• There was a small (‘ish) spike of cases post “lockdown leak”. Transmissions in early November went up (especially in Tier 1 / low risk areas) - presumably because people decided to make the most before the lockdown.
• R is now back to 1. North West and Scotland are going down, most other areas are flat. The only region that has been increasing over past few days is Midlands.

www.phgfoundation.org/briefing/rna-vaccines

This is a good explanation. I think anything written up by a journalist is usually pretty crap, they are not scientists, and usually have any agenda. I stick to Oxford or Cambridge released data.

Although not the rna vaccine, Oxford also do very good

.... vaccine page.....www.research.ox.ac.uk/Area/coronavirus-research/vaccine

Thanks @Baaaahhhhh . Posters in the original thread have very sensibly pointed out it's about balancing risks. There may be possible risks but probably not nearly as large as risk from Covid, esp if in a vulnerable group.

Additional info on mRNA technology

This technology has already been tested on very vulnerable kids worldwide and so far has proven to be safe. There is a condition called SMA (spinal muscular atrophy) and children born with this tend to die in infancy/by toddler age. So parents are willing to try everything.

It has been in clinical human trials for years now in the us/eu and has been approved in 2019 (US), 2020 (EU, Japan, Israel). The trade name is Zolgensma and it is the world's most expensive drug.

Glad that Zoe isn't too accurate. Our area went up in the last 3 days from under 200 to over 700!!!!!

It clearly is rising in our area by official data, but that is a huge jump.

Nice chart from RP131
twitter.com/rp131/status/1328691735778775041?s=21

Newcastle have been publishing that extra data in their website (apparently...?!)

The orange bits. I may be wrong though!

Doesn't look like 2800 worth though.

Ah, it does here

Somehow we are reaching the levels we had in September that triggered emergency measures mid September, minus those student numbers. Even with restrictions, then tier 2 and now lockdown.

Another for comparison. Extra measures came in on the 18th September.

And more technical delays.....probably another load of reallocations!

Given how they treat data I wish I had downloaded datasets and could compare if they are stealthily adding numbers....
I wouldn't put it past them :(

When do we normally hear if countries are being added/removed to the quarantine list - is it Thursday?

@TheSunIsStillShining. I can understand your cynicism. I’ve kept the England figures going back a fair way, and in truth they are not ....yet.... although the amount of adjustments added one day then removed the next does sometimes cause an eyebrow to be raised.

Fun and games with today’s release being delayed again

I think we can assume from this that the reporter for the BBC today’s live updates is from oop North and (like me) was oblivious that there were 2 until the other Richmond starting causing problems with the data

@GetAMoveOnTroodon I love Richmond and only discovered this year there was another one down south somewhere.

No that was correct, Richmondshire did have the highest proportion, at about 20%, as the actual area had so few cases. Richmond only had 13% re-allocated.

Oh wow! Apologies BBC reporter. And what a coincidence for both Richmonds to be high...

www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-comparison-of-geographic-allocation-of-cases-in-england-by-lower-tier-local-authority

was the second file - weekly before and after cases, before and after weekly rate per 100,000, and rate per 100,000 change there last night? Or this morning for that matter? Can't believe I missed it.

Not sure if anyone noticed the change to the govt data and disclaimer today.

I emailed them feedback on the new beta dashboard a few weeks back - I was incredulous that they were reporting cases from 3 days ago at local authority level -on their brand new dashboard! I explained they needed to wait at least 5 days as only ~60% of cases are reported after 3 days. You have to wait 5 days to capture 95% of cases.

I know you have all heard me go on about this before and you must have all been bored stiff listening to me ranting about my frustration with the media quoting case numbers from recent days when they weren't yet fully reported.

Well it was the last straw for me when I saw cases on the new govt dashboard being displayed from 3 days ago. So I contacted them and told them I hoped they would fix it as they needed to wait 5 days to capture 95% of cases at local authority level and explained I had been monitoring it since July and they were welcome to verify. And that reporting cases after 3 days was grossly understating it.

And finally someone listened! They have a 5-day lag on everything now! Hooray for improved data representation! Hooray!

I quote from their own data disclaimer "...the most recent 5 days' data are considered incomplete."

And all their local cases/postcode search tool results have been changed to 5 days lag also - the same methodogy I have been using for Covid Messenger since its inception in August. Feeling validated! Finally! I am so glad they listened!

Hopefully the media will take notice and report data more accurately moving forward.

I will shut up now and stop banging on! I have found the misreporting very frustrating (I am sure you can tell)!!!

Attendance in schools fallen again...